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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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As someone else would say.
It's the batteries !

EDIT: Battery day is coming. If it's even half of what we think it is, its a new trajectory.

Yes, Battery day is still ~sometime in the future, but it was also ~sometime in the future after the ER. Did something new get announced since the ER that I missed during this last weekend in the 100+ pages?
 
Tesla Cybertruck Convoy Across The TransAmerica Trail To Test EV Pick Up's Limits

Cybertruck CYBRTRK Tesla TransAmerica Trail

"A Tesla Cybertruck convoy will travel across the TransAmerica Trail to test the limits of the all-electric pickup around Summer 2022."​


EDIT: Note also the the Cybertruck is scheduled to make an appearance on the Sun, May 17, 2020 episode of "Jay Leno's Garage" (ironically on CNBC TV channel, and Youtube). This will perk organic increase in awareness of the product, coming at the start of the 3rd Week of May (when we expect Tesla Bty Day).
 
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This has been pointed out more than twice but apparently, it bears repeating (based on your comment):

Tesla is the ONLY automaker that has been production constrained for years. Therefore we do not know how much demand there is out there beyond their historical production capacity. We can assume that economic conditions will impact large discretionary purchases like automobiles but that does not necessarily imply Tesla will not be able to sell every car they can make. Certainly, it will hurt the big automakers who were all demand constrained for some time. Also, Tesla has a new model out with huge demand so, even if Model 3 becomes demand constrained they can convert Model 3 production lines to Model Y. Model Y has considerably higher margins than Model 3 so this would actually benefit profitability.

It's overly simplistic to say that since large discretionary purchases will be lower, that Tesla will have a demand problem. Remember, they only comprise a tiny percent of the entire market and that is not because they haven't had enough buyers, it's because they haven't been able to make enough cars for the expanding group of people that want to buy a Tesla. Last Wednesday, Elon let it be known that they finished the quarter out with more order backlog than at any other time. The market for cars in the same price range could be quartered and Tesla, with its little bitty two percent (or whatever the exact number is), might still be able to expand their sales with their production.

Agreed. Moreover, we are missing the expected signs that Tesla is hitting the demand limit at the current price. We have not seen any price reductions (with the exception of MiC M3 to meet the new subsidy criteria), there does not appear to have been substantial inventory build-up (with the exception of COVID logistical issues), no shortening of delivery dates, and no signs of slowing expansion.
 
The upgrade is great! But the true killer today will be the lack of short sellers to scare the market. Futures are down about 1% but Tesla is up 1%. Early observation though. Subject to change haha

Lol, not a LACK of shortzes, but those dogz WILL be on a leash. The "Uptick Rule" means they can not sell TSLA for below the 'National Best Price' as it appears in the order book.

So they'll try to 'cap' the SP with shorting, unless there's really strong volume. Macros are red at the moment though, so I'm not expecting high volume, unless there's breaking news.

Cheers!
 
Main driver seems to be margin surprise. Revised expected gross margin to peak in 2026/2027 from 24.5% to 26%.

From battery? I expect main driver for gross margin improvements (to take it much higher than 26%) would be software features. By 2025/2026 FSD should be at level 5, opening up to all kinds of in-car software-based infotainment revenue possibilities.
 
From battery? I expect main driver for gross margin improvements (to take it much higher than 26%) would be software features. By 2025/2026 FSD should be at level 5, opening up to all kinds of in-car software-based infotainment revenue possibilities.

"Now has gross margins ex. reg credits peaking at 26% in 2026/27 versus ~24.5% prior"

Only see headlines, not subscribed to morgan stanley research.
 
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After production, the batteries can be stored at half charge for many years. They don't self-drain, they only lose charge when installed in a car that is using up the charge slowly. But you don't want to store them fully charged in a hot climate. OT.
Are you sure about that? I've always understood that there is time degridation whether they are used or not. It's slower at 50%, but my understanding is that it's not zero (unless perhaps they are stored at cold temperatures as well--don't know about that).
 
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Sigh premarket started to dumb again
Yup it's the 7:00 am walk-down. New class of traders let out into the paddock. Dey tryin' hard, let's see what volume does.

Edit: walking it down $1/min, now below the Middle-BB from Friday's close (which was $685.04). Their strategy here is to create a gap down before the Open, so the natural support offered by reaching the Middle-BB is by-passed.

sc.TSLA.10-DayChart.2020-05-01.20-00.png


Nothing has changed wrt Tesla, of course... :p

Cheers!
 
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700 is still some 300 to high for me to buy again... try harder.
My feeling is we have some buying opportunities coming up soon. But look at that list of catalyst for the stock going forward. We are once again in a position where we understand Tesla is going to shock people with its rapid expansion. The stock price is irrelevant unless you’re playing options. It was the beginning of June when we went below 180 just a year ago!

Keep the SEC away and Musk onboard and any price between 350-900 is irrelevant. I hope investors don’t get discouraged too early this year, or they will have to sit back and watch a repeat of last year
 
https://www.washingtonpost.com/clim...virus-crisis-hits-solar-wind-energy-industry/

Main article depicts grim picture for COVID-19 legislative aid for renewables, but there is some tasty irony:

'Some energy analysts note that big oil companies don’t have to wait for government stimulus. The price of oil is so low that they would be better off investing in wind and solar, they say. 
“For all these oil companies, the returns on these renewable projects are better than what they can do in the oil and gas industry,” said Sarah Ladislaw, director of the energy program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “Now is a good time to do that and tell their investors.”'