Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Dan Detweiler]

18,000 posts and now you think you are the CIA. Maybe a low information social life?

Dude...relax!
Nobody shot your dog or anything. Geeze

Dan

 

[Green Pete]

Simple buying shares on a reasonable amount of margin is a bet that in the long run the shares will appreciate more than the interest rate, while the price will not drop enough to trigger a margin call in the meanwhile.

‘Your $750 Leaps could expire completely worthless and you would lose 100%, if Tesla merely meanders around the current price or lower. In fact we just recently saw Tesla being stuck in a channel for no logical reason for five years, where you could have easily lost it all by making a similar sure thing bet, back in 2016, or 2017.

‘Or Coronavirus might really resurge in the fall, we might have even more job loss, customer confidence loss, enter a depression that we don’t pull out of, until 2nd half of 2022, and TSLA struggles with everyone else.

even though neither scenario is likely, you are risking 100% of your investment. Whereas with shares bought on margin, you would not be.

But with shares bought on margin if it drops and you get margin called you risk losing the shares bought on margin AND the shares you own before margin.

Personally I'd rather throw money knowing the maximum I stand to lose is a fixed number.

 

[JRP3]

18,000 posts and now you think you are the CIA. Maybe a low information social life?

Try doing some math.

 

[feigen66]

California Coronavirus: 58,619 Cases and 2,375 Deaths - Worldometer

4th May - California - 1,320 new cases Alameda 27 new cases
5th May - California - 2,530 new cases Alameda 33 new cases

This is just 2 days worth of data but new cases are not trending down as I hoped.

That could simply be improved testing and tracking.

Most of the increase in new cases for 5th May is in Los Angeles.

I'll keep tracking the trend, a sustained drop in new case numbers will help the case for opening Fremont.,

New cases != Infection rate.

All the counties are ramping up testing but the rate is dropping.

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Data Dashboard - Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - County of Santa Clara

Alameda has really bad dashboard only telling 50% of the picture.

 

[Opus BC fan]

And I have added a new name to my ignore list...

 

[Green Pete]

California Coronavirus: 58,619 Cases and 2,375 Deaths - Worldometer

4th May - California - 1,320 new cases Alameda 27 new cases
5th May - California - 2,530 new cases Alameda 33 new cases

This is just 2 days worth of data but new cases are not trending down as I hoped.

That could simply be improved testing and tracking.

Most of the increase in new cases for 5th May is in Los Angeles.

I'll keep tracking the trend, a sustained drop in new case numbers will help the case for opening Fremont.,

It seems like the site i was following the curve for has smoothed out their data but it was pretty silly show the daily data dipped severly on a weekly basis every Sunday.

Looking at data day to day has flaws in things like some testing lab aren't reporting on sundays. Looking at anything less than a weekly timeframe is likely to be misleading in either direction

 

[Green Pete]

That's a common misconception about buying and holding. That it's boring and you don't have to do anything. It's critical that a buy and hold investor keep their eyes on the ball (the company, not so much the share price, especially not hour by hour). It's important to stay abreast of real developments within the company and the competition because you don't want to be invested in something that's going to be flat to down for three or four years (or even longer). As investors in Tesla, we are kind of in a golden period with no near-term risk of competition which means there's one less thing to focus on. It's also important to know the difference between a small earnings miss that will correct itself the following quarter or two and a larger, more systemic problem with the business, products, management effectiveness or changes in market preferences or the competition that risks never correcting itself.

For example, if the CEO tweets his opinion that the share price might have gotten ahead of itself, but you see no problem looking out a couple of quarters, you don't panic. Or if some bad news comes out and the price drops 30% overnight, it's important to not panic because the bad news might already be fully priced in (or maybe you suspect the problem identified is only the tip of the iceberg and you decide to sell). Or there may be an expensive problem with every car the company built in the last year or two and you have a heads up before the market realizes just how prevalent and expensive the fix is, you might want to bail if you can before the market understands the problem. But it's necessary to weigh the negatives with the positives with an eye down the road.

Personally, I find the incessant worrying and preoccupation with every little 10% move up or down, on nothing really fundamental to the company's longer-term prospects, to be rather tiresome but I put up with it and read past much of it because I realize different investors have different styles. That doesn't mean I find it interesting, just that I accept some people can't help but focus on the share price at any given moment. It's built into the way their brain works or the way they view money and assets.

I buy and hold only and trade options to give me stress on the swings for fun. (We're it not for options trading my portfolio wouldn't even be worth mentioning, but the joy from converting those options earnings to shares had been immense, yes I'm also setting aside for taxes so I never have to sell)

 

[RandomJohnny]

Just sold all the shares I bought today, and more. I've never felt worse about this company than right now.

Is this a high information post?

 

[MC3OZ]

New cases != Infection rate.

All the counties are ramping up testing but the rate is dropping.

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Data Dashboard - Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - County of Santa Clara

Alameda has really bad dashboard only telling 50% of the picture.

Good, I'll stop reporting these numbers, I was looking to get a handle on the trend.

 

[StealthP3D]

I buy and hold only and trade options to give me stress on the swings for fun. (We're it not for options trading my portfolio wouldn't even be worth mentioning, but the joy from converting those options earnings to shares had been immense, yes I'm also setting aside for taxes so I never have to sell)

I only buy options when I see a "no brainer". I made a killing last year and into January of this year, everything I bought turned to gold. I stopped buying calls sometime in December and just rode the ones I had into January. That was some real fun but I don't feel like I have to always be buying options.

 

[JRP3]

Is this a high information post?

Yes. Thanks for stalking.

 

[MP3Mike]

I'm surprised by your modesty—only one dollar bills.

I see at least one $5 bill.

 

[SOULPEDL]

This just popped into my head... what if the big news on battery day is not only about more cost effective or life span or whatever, but that he will share the patent with the world to use. He would not risk some company lead like this without huge confidence, but we have to ask at which point could or should Tesla shift focus to help others for the mission.

This shareholder would not mind in the least bit if they accelerated the mission for EVs and Storage. Tesla has so many other advantages and it would be good to make market entry easier for others to follow, while also increasing pressure on the incumbent to switch, especially if they go so far to push BEV costs even with ICE.

One thing for certain, anything is possible.

 

[Krugerrand]

Twitter
Grimes explains the meaning

That was about as helpful as an umbrella in a hurricane.

 

[Krugerrand]

I'm surprised by your modesty—only one dollar bills.

63 shares, Buddy. Not much left after the island purchase.

 

[Green Pete]

I only buy options when I see a "no brainer". I made a killing last year and into January of this year, everything I bought turned to gold. I stopped buying calls sometime in December and just rode the ones I had into January. That was some real fun but I don't feel like I have to always be buying options.

I've been stupidly lucky on options. And I expect soon that luck will run out. It is mostly luck tho, and I'd never claim otherwise. This is pretty much the only reason I own a single share of Tesla.

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019-2020 Investors' Roundtable

After that before I bought Tesla I bought puts on the spy at just the right moment. Again sheer dumb luck.

I've bought protective puts on Tesla, but I've never actually made any money on any. I did buy some that doubled minutes after musks tweet but held them too long after lol.

Options are part smarts, but mostly sheer dumb luck.

 

[Krugerrand]

Is this a high information post?

When he posted that it was quite informative. It then led me to asking a question, which he kindly answered openly and honestly and I netted even more information.

If they’d just hand me Thor’s hammer, I would have solved your problem for you a long time ago.

 

[MC3OZ]

This just popped into my head... what if the big news on battery day is not only about more cost effective or life span or whatever, but that he will share the patent with the world to use. He would not risk some company lead like this without huge confidence, but we have to ask at which point could or should Tesla shift focus to help others for the mission.

This shareholder would not mind in the least bit if they accelerated the mission for EVs and Storage. Tesla has so many other advantages and it would be good to make market entry easier for others to follow, while also increasing pressure on the incumbent to switch, especially if they go so far to push BEV costs even with ICE.

One thing for certain, anything is possible.

I think Tesla can potentially make and supply some of the components of the battery, some of the machinery used to build batteries, and the licence the IP to use the Tesla machinery to build batteries to Tesla's formula using components supplied by Tesla.

This potentially makes money, accelerates the mission and can keep some more valuable parts of the IP in house, I'm not 100% confident they can prevent others eventually reverse engineering components...

But my hunch is the priority is ramping their own production... I expect energy storage batteries to be a significant part of Battery Day.. the opportunities are enormous...

If Tesla can ramp their production quickly, with a efficient spend of capex and a ready market, that is the big opportunity, helping others is secondary.

If it is a choice between making more money and the mission, I think they will try to do both.. but working with others is harder.

 

[RandomJohnny]

When he posted that it was quite informative. It then led me to asking a question, which he kindly answered openly and honestly and I netted even more information.

If they’d just hand me Thor’s hammer, I would have solved your problem for you a long time ago.

More threatening language from the cyberbully. I think TT007 had the analysis correct about you (after all, he is a mental health professional) but may have miscalculated your childhood. You weren't the bully. Oh no, you were the victim. Now you just project that abuse to those you fundamentally disagree with. It's not your fault man, you can break the cycle.

 

[Thumper]

Tomorrow is my 9 year anniversary on this forum. Random J is one of the worst trolls encountered in that time.