Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[TheTalkingMule]

TT7 is a troll/self-promoter. Period.

This type is usually warned then banned week 1 on your average discussion forum.

 

[carterm2]

If it be now, ’tis not to come. If it be not to come, it will be now. If it be not now, yet it will come—the readiness is all.
Hamlet Act 5 Scene 2

Irrational low information cheer leading is no better than irrational low information doomsayers.

 

[Big Dog]

Everyone needs to be aware that GM and the other majors all recognize income when vehicles are shipped to dealers.
Since most dealers are closed Q2 is highly likely to be much worse than Q1 for GM, Toyota, Ford, Nissan, et al.
Tesla recognizes a sale only when delivered to a final user and payment received. Tesla Q2 will certainly be stronger than Q1 if only because of all that inventory that the currently have which is already probably fully recognized in expenses; since wages were paid, most suppliers have been paid.

Uhh, no. That is not how GAAP accounting works, which generally matches expense to revenue. All labor and supplier costs used to build the cars is held on the balance sheet until the vehicle is sold/delivered, then that labor is expensed against the revenue of the delivered car. So, all of those build expenses will hit the P&L at the same time as the revenue from the sale.

 

[MarcoRP]

Not exactly Tesla related, but still a landmark

 

[obie_fl]

I've come up with a new correlation between TSLA trade volume and TMC posts volume. Just need to find a way to make $$$ on it now.

 

[wipster]

While the stock market is down...

So just had this crazy moonshot idea. Little bit of Westworld spoilers, so if you haven’t seen season 3 stop reading now. Anyway, Westworld starts out as a fun theme park, but turns out its purpose is observe people to be able to control the world. Anyway, right now Tesla has a million cars with 8 cameras driving around observing people with the purpose of transporting people from A->B and solving AGW. So they have a product that is also gathering tons of data, a lot like the themepark in Westworld. Also they can probably listen to what people say in the car, if not directly then through machine learning from the driver monitoring camera.

At some point this will be a very valuable dataset. 5G, Starlink, whatever comes next will decrease the cost to send more of this data to the cloud, AWS and GCP are driving down the cost of storing and processing this data. Want to find a person in the world, 8 million cameras are driving around could be looking for him. Want to contact trace a person’s every interaction outside and through windows to see who could have gotten Covid-1984, this data could be very useful. Want to see how people react when they are all alone, when they get triggered by other drivers etc, the driving monitoring camera will do this. Add a HVAC system in every household with sensors, gather data on their exact energy usage etc, at some point a very clever AI will be able to deduce a lot about all of us from this data.

Not saying Tesla are gonna go rogue AI anytime soon, but at some point Tesla will have an asset that could be extremely useful and probably monetized in many ways.

OT - Just an FYI, in the next to last episode of Person of Interest (an all-time fav that deals directly with AI... for anyone who hasn't seen it and is looking for something to binge, highly recommend), Finch is driving a Model S... I think JJ Abrams had a big clue about the future.

 

[jbcarioca]

Uhh, no. That is not how GAAP accounting works, which generally matches expense to revenue. All labor and supplier costs used to build the cars is held on the balance sheet until the vehicle is sold/delivered, then that labor is expensed against the revenue of the delivered car. So, all of those build expenses will hit the P&L at the same time as the revenue from the sale.

All the others recognize sale at time of shipment to dealer. That is NOT cash basis at all, no connection. For Tesla, the finished goods inventory includes all costs of the finished product, while the component, including salaries and materials are charged to expense as incurred. You are incorrect that those expenses are deferred, they are recognized as incurred. All accounting is intended to match revenues and expenses, but the terms of recognition vary substantially, as do rules for depreciation, amortization and charging to Work in Progress or Finished Goods.
You need to review production accounting. We don't need the technicalities here, but if we did @The Accountant would be the appropriate source, not me. OTOH, I have had a pretty decent background in cost accounting for the auto manufacturing and distribution industry.

 

[JRP3]

We are all adults here, capable of evaluating posts and making our own decisions.

Decisions are best made when having a complete picture. Some adults here were mislead in the past because of bad information. The point is to help us all find the truth.

 

[UCF3]

Young people are increasingly playing the stock market in a coronavirus-driven gold rush

This should only help TSLA

 

[wtlloyd]

All the others recognize sale at time of shipment to dealer. That is NOT cash basis at all, no connection. For Tesla, the finished goods inventory includes all costs of the finished product, while the component, including salaries and materials are charged to expense as incurred. You are incorrect that those expenses are deferred, they are recognized as incurred. All accounting is intended to match revenues and expenses, but the terms of recognition vary substantially, as do rules for depreciation, amortization and charging to Work in Progress or Finished Goods.
You need to review production accounting. We don't need the technicalities here, but if we did @The Accountant would be the appropriate source, not me. OTOH, I have had a pretty decent background in cost accounting for the auto manufacturing and distribution industry.

Well, isn't the real point to be made that Tesla inventory is truly gone when it's sold, whereas the legacy manufacturers have stuffed their production into Dealer's lots, which can't accept more production until the actual sale to consumer is made?

 

[Mo City]

Young people are increasingly playing the stock market in a coronavirus-driven gold rush

This should only help TSLA

It won't.

 

[adiggs]

It won't.

Is there a source you're using to inform your point of view? If so, if you'd link it and point to the particular points you found most helpful and persuasive in informing your point of view, that would be helpful.

If there isn't a source, but rather your own point of view based on some series of reasoning, if you would elaborate and explain the market, social, or other dynamics that lead you to this position, and why they combine to help you arrive at your conclusion, that would be helpful.


I look for posts that make me smarter / more informed than I was before the post.

In return, I try to provide such posts. I don't always live up to that standard, but it's still what I have in mind when I post.

 

[Mo City]

Is there a source you're using to inform your point of view? If so, if you'd link it and point to the particular points you found most helpful and persuasive in informing your point of view, that would be helpful.

If there isn't a source, but rather your own point of view based on some series of reasoning, if you would elaborate and explain the market, social, or other dynamics that lead you to this position, and why they combine to help you arrive at your conclusion, that would be helpful.


I look for posts that make me smarter / more informed than I was before the post.

In return, I try to provide such posts. I don't always live up to that standard, but it's still what I have in mind when I post.

Might I suggest the person I responded to (or anyone else) supply a link or argument to their point?

"Why not" is usually the wrong question to ask when "why" hasn't been stated first.

 

[TespaceX]

Young people are increasingly playing the stock market in a coronavirus-driven gold rush

This should only help TSLA

Maybe you are mistaken. Or you hope that they are.

New and young investors are buying battered, cheaper stocks: airline and cruise industries.
https://youtu.be/aZJrJEjvZg

Retail investors bought airline stocks even as travel slowed to a trickle, TD Ameritrade says

Robinhood Users Piled Onto Airline, Cruise Stocks as Market Cratered

I will say, though, these investors may invest in TSLA if it were cheaper from say like a 10:1.

 

[T@oo]

I've come up with a new correlation between TSLA trade volume and TMC posts volume. Just need to find a way to make $$$ on it now.

Been there. TMC is a trailing indicator, unfortunately.

 

[powertoold]

Have you guys thought about Starman lately? It was an incredible marketing and company fusion event. Difficult to find any comparables in marketing history.

If Tesla does ads, they can simply show the launch and Starman hanging out in space in a Tesla.

 

[LN1_Casey]

Young people are increasingly playing the stock market in a coronavirus-driven gold rush

This should only help TSLA

While I have hope for my generation, and the generation below mine, I don't think it'll pertain to TSLA stock.

TSLA is expensive. It's currently over 700 each, and for a lot of young people, that is, or nearly is, an entire month's rent. And then, if you do splurge, if it drops 10% (which this stock does), you'll loose $70, which is a trip to the groceries.

However, other stocks such as the airlines and cruise lines, as mentioned by @TespaceX then you can drop the same amount and get more shares, which just seems more worth while, though it's not in reality. Kind of like "Buy 3, get one free" vice something 25% off. Or buy in smaller increments--$100 worth each time, which is all you can spare on this paycheck.

Further, if they do buy TSLA, it may be on margin, and that's only going to burn these new investors, and give their shares to the shorts to short, which will act against them. The gold rush didn't make a lot of people rich, it largely made the people who played the gold digger's rich.

 

[UCF3]

While I have hope for my generation, and the generation below mine, I don't think it'll pertain to TSLA stock.

TSLA is expensive. It's currently over 700 each, and for a lot of young people, that is, or nearly is, an entire month's rent. And then, if you do splurge, if it drops 10% (which this stock does), you'll loose $70, which is a trip to the groceries.

However, other stocks such as the airlines and cruise lines, as mentioned by @TespaceX then you can drop the same amount and get more shares, which just seems more worth while, though it's not in reality. Kind of like "Buy 3, get one free" vice something 25% off. Or buy in smaller increments--$100 worth each time, which is all you can spare on this paycheck.

Further, if they do buy TSLA, it may be on margin, and that's only going to burn these new investors, and give their shares to the shorts to short, which will act against them. The gold rush didn't make a lot of people rich, it largely made the people who played the gold digger's rich.

Fractional shares are becoming more popular which should negate some worries about the price being too high.
Schwab’s plan to offer fractional shares starting in June is a shot across the bow at Robinhood, Stash

 

[Mimas HQ]

BMW is postponing the construction of the factory in Hungary, I think it is possible that it will be a Tesla factory.

BMW postpones construction of new plant in Hungary

 

[shootformoon]

Opinions are only opinions. As an investor, who can realistically blame their investment action on other people's opinion? You are doing witch hunt for nobody's benefit.

On the other hand, the time of people wasted on reading lots of your low/none information posts can't be brought back.

We've seen what's behind them, and we've seen them be wrong more than right, and we've seen people taken in by them and lose money. It seems every so often people forget this or new people are unaware and the cycle starts again. I don't want that to happen.