Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Mo City]

Only if infections and deaths don't start shooting back up as we open up again. We have not broken the curve the way other successfully reopened countries have. The path may be more evident but the success of that path is less clear.

OT: It's going to be near impossible to shut things down again. As long as doctors, nurses and emergency rooms aren't completely overwhelmed, businesses will stay open and the economy will move forward. Everyone grounded in reality realizes infections and deaths will increase. That comes with the territory. Opening up in June, July or August would have the same result.

Social distancing and masks will be part of our lives until a vaccine is distributed.

 

[Prunesquallor]

I think we got ourselves some JDF 'top cover'...

TSLA $814.79 @ 11:20 EDT

Cheers!

Given Elon's new hobby, maybe this:

 

[elasalle]

I think buying puts for downside protection is also generally a bad idea in the bigger picture. Keep in mind, I'm always in favor of taking advantage of the mispricing of particular options, but it only works when you are lucky or if you have some special insight that the market doesn't see. The overall long-term trend of the market is up, even more so when dealing with a specific company like TSLA. That makes it even more unlikely you will be able to find enough mispricing to take advantage of downturns.

The fact that you think a few months of small profits validates your strategy is all I need to conclude you didn't read the article about the "goat farmer" and fully absorb the point I was making. Because what really matters when it comes to building wealth is long-term results. That's measured in years and decades, not months.

There is a reason why, in a casino, continually doubling down on your losses until you win and get back to zero is not a viable strategy and that is because, given enough time, a string of losses will always occur that is long enough to wipe out your entire bankroll. While this isn't what we are talking about here, it does illustrate why any investment strategy has to consider a long enough period of time to take into account all likely possibilities. And the longer the sample period, the more possibilities there are. Six months does not validate a strategy. We have strong convictions that TSLA is going to a big place (and for very good reasons). You don't want to bet against that unless you have some special short-term insight that the options market is temporarily mispriced. And I have a pretty dim view of trying to time the market in general. Because it often behaves in unexpected ways.

Respect your opinion, but my strategy is working for me (so far & sure other strategies might be getting better results ..)
. I don't play with short term CC's because of the volatility. (& also don't need to constantly stress )
. I sell CC which are way out where probability of it hitting is very low. (So large window of gains, and smaller Call price)
. I use the monies from the sold CC's to buy more Calls but for Jan 22. (Kind of try to make delta neutral where possible etc.) Or for other names
. The extra Options I bought I manage freely trying to time market. Sell high, short term dip, buy more, close CC in lower ranges etc.

.So right now I have Jan 21 CC's for prices above $1500. Short Squeeze is temp if you want to hold Stock long term, so only thing that has me worried is if FSD is solved. ~ Cheers!!

 

[LJS22]

Might see a squeeze here if we sustain

 

[Tim S]

Do we have any spies at Fremont? Can we see parking lot activity?

It's only 8:30 AM there. The email from HR said "afternoon".

Edit: According to the CNBC story, it was the email from Elon, not HR:

In the CEO’s more brief communication, Musk cited a shift in health orders in the state. He wrote:

“In light of Governor Newsom’s statement earlier today approving manufacturing in California, we will aim to restart production in Fremont tomorrow afternoon. I will be on the line personally helping wherever I can. However, if you feel uncomfortable coming back to work at this time, please do not feel obligated to do so. These are difficult times, so thanks very much for working hard to make Tesla successful!”

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Might see a squeeze here if we sustain

My thesis was for $900 after 1Q earnings, and Freemont opening should have enough impact to get us much higher than this. We shall see. Hopefully some good Friday short covering after lunch.

 

[Jack6591]

I’m going to get in the shower...I suggest y’all do the same.

 

[Todd Burch]

I’m going to get in the shower...I suggest y’all do the same.

Well, er....OK...but...different showers, right?

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I’m going to get in the shower...I suggest y’all do the same.

Well I was literally just about to, but now it feels kinda creepy.

 

[LJS22]

My thesis was for $900 after 1Q earnings, and Freemont opening should have enough impact to get us much higher than this. We shall see. Hopefully some good Friday short covering after lunch.

And she’s off. See where this goes

 

[Prunesquallor]

While it looks like a good day for TSLA, I’ll point out that ARK's non-TSLA funds are doing well. Genomics (ARKG) is at ATH (up 30% in last 30 days) and Fintech (ARKF) is up 20% in last 30 days. One could argue these are both areas that are well suited for a pandemic environment.

Not advice. I just dabble in these two.

 

[Rammstein]

Respect your opinion, but my strategy is working for me (so far & sure other strategies might be getting better results ..)
. I don't play with short term CC's because of the volatility. (& also don't need to constantly stress )
. I sell CC which are way out where probability of it hitting is very low. (So large window of gains, and smaller Call price)
. I use the monies from the sold CC's to buy more Calls but for Jan 22. (Kind of try to make delta neutral where possible etc.)
. The extra Options I bought I manage freely trying to time market. Sell high, short term dip, buy more, close CC in lower ranges etc.

.So right now I have Jan 21 CC's for prices above $1500. Short Squeeze is temp if you want to hold Stock long term, so only thing that has me worried is if FSD is solved. ~ Cheers!!

Isn’t there a limit on the amount of CC’s you can sell? Are you at that limit? I’m just trying to understand your strategy a bit more. Thanks.

 

[elasalle]

Isn’t there a limit on the amount of CC’s you can sell? Are you at that limit? I’m just trying to understand your strategy a bit more. Thanks.

No limit. If you have Shares bundled in 100's. You can sell 1 call against each one.
You can also sell them against other calls with same expiration (Verticals) and against different expiration Calendar Spreads.

+should add "Not An Advice" .. now (own diligence required)

 

[LJS22]

Someone didn’t like 824 haha

 

[LN1_Casey]

The Octovalve video from Munro is up.

 

[hobbes]

There are a couple options to take, IMO:

1. Resume Typical Operations: This would involve manufacturing European-spec cars for a few weeks to get what they can on ships to Europe, then switch to US vehicles for June.

• Pros: Doesn't introduce any new variables (within their control) to their past logistical processes.
• Cons: Likely reduces the amount of cars that can be delivered in Q2. Ensures the "Wave" logistics problem continues.

2. Maximize Q2 Revenue: In this approach, in an attempt to reduce the pain of Q2, they would manufacture cars purely for the North American market thru the end of Q2. This eliminates the delay for the manufacturing line switchover from NA to Europe config cars and reduces the chance for any shipping/logistical problems. Plus, I'm not sure if MY is certified for European delivery yet anyway.

• Pros: Maximizes revenue/minimizes loss for Q2. Doesn't really introduce any new variables to their past logistical processes.
• Cons: No cars to Europe = sad European customers. Doesn't stop the "wave" logistics problem.

3. Stop-The-Wave Approach: In this approach, Tesla would basically bite the bullet, write off Q2 (after all the market has likely already done that anyway), and focus on taking this opportunity to eliminate the wave logistics problem by switching more frequently between European and NA spec cars. They would ignore the Wall Street calendar and instead focus production on spreading deliveries out evenly through the quarter.

• Pros: "The Wave" disappears. Deliveries are less rushed and spread evenly through the quarter in all regions. Delivery quality improves, logistics problems get reduced significantly.
• Cons: Will likely result in a short-term hit to deliveries/revenue.

I think Tesla will take option (2) for a few reasons:

• With S&P inclusion close, if they believe Q2 can be salvaged with high margin MY deliveries, it will be worthwhile not only to put out decent results compared to other car companies, but also to maximize chances of S&P inclusion.
• With the German factory underway, wave logistics will only be a factor for another year--and with delivery logistics improving bit-by-bit each quarter, if they've survived this long, they can survive another year with wave logistics. They've seen worse.

Order page for all European countries (o.k., I checked about 10) and Australia says August for deliveries. That likely means they will produce those cars in July, so Q2 is North America only, which fits with your take it will be option 2.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

TSLA is up 7+% since Elon said it was too high a few days ago. Maybe he should say that more often.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Given Elon's new hobby, maybe this:

View attachment 539798

OT. Lol, the JDF never operated the A-12. But Hiro piloted a mean mult-trillion dollar Japanese sovereign wealth fund.

People think he was granted $5.45 M in stock options for his boyish good looks?

No, he's here to kick ass and take names, and he's all out of bubblegum...

Cheers!

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

It's only 8:30 AM there. The email from HR said "afternoon".

Edit: According to the CNBC story, it was the email from Elon, not HR:

In the CEO’s more brief communication, Musk cited a shift in health orders in the state. He wrote:

“In light of Governor Newsom’s statement earlier today approving manufacturing in California, we will aim to restart production in Fremont tomorrow afternoon. I will be on the line personally helping wherever I can. However, if you feel uncomfortable coming back to work at this time, please do not feel obligated to do so. These are difficult times, so thanks very much for working hard to make Tesla successful!”

It looks like Elon is going over the heads of the local authorities by referring to Newsom’s statement and confront them with a fait accompli. I wonder if they dare to call his bluff or are too afraid of a backlash.

 

[Artful Dodger]

TSLA is up 7+% since Elon said it was too high a few days ago. Maybe he should say that more often.

... and +20% above the intraday low last Friday, where some "media aware" investors sold their stakes... <smh>

It looks like Elon is going over the heads of the local authorities by referring to Newsom’s statement and confront them with a fait accompli. I wonder if they dare to call his bluff or are too afraid of a backlash.

The email from Tesla HR said resuming limited operations with a 30% recall of staff beginning on Fri, May 8th. That's today, not tomorrow.

If the Country tries to buck this, they had better be prepared for the future loss of tax revenue. IMHO, unless the County can demonstrate that people are dying needlessly because local hospitals have exceeded ICU capacity, its time to get back to work.

Cheers!