I've been entertaining the idea that battery day will also be the day the announce FC FSD. I realize it's wishful thinking, but I'm not sure HOW wishful and how possible it actually is. Revealing awesome battery stuff as well as the overdue FC FSD on the same day would be the one two punch of the century.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Elon Musk on the production line; genius grounded in first principled common sense — driven by an epic work ethic.
Elon Rocks. Fanboy...damn straight.
Elon Rocks. Fanboy...damn straight.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Lol, you don't work in PR, do you? Why would they steal their own thunder on Bty Day by muddying the narrative? That's be like wearing a Pink Tuxedo to your daughter's wedding. Sure, ur gonna create buzz, but what about ur daughter?
Cheers!
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Lol, you don't work in PR, do you? Why would they steal their own thunder on Bty Day by muddying the narrative? That's be like wearing a Pink Tuxedo to your daughter's wedding. Sure, ur gonna get talked about, but what about ur daughter?
Lol. Ya I'm not a PR expert, I guess that makes sense. You think they will schedule an event for FC FSD separately?
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
I think buying puts for downside protection is also generally a bad idea in the bigger picture. Keep in mind, I'm always in favor of taking advantage of the mispricing of particular options, but it only works when you are lucky or if you have some special insight that the market doesn't see. The overall long-term trend of the market is up, even more so when dealing with a specific company like TSLA. That makes it even more unlikely you will be able to find enough mispricing to take advantage of downturns.
The fact that you think a few months of small profits validates your strategy is all I need to conclude you didn't read the article about the "goat farmer" and fully absorb the point I was making. Because what really matters when it comes to building wealth is long-term results. That's measured in years and decades, not months.
There is a reason why, in a casino, continually doubling down on your losses until you win and get back to zero is not a viable strategy and that is because, given enough time, a string of losses will always occur that is long enough to wipe out your entire bankroll. While this isn't what we are talking about here, it does illustrate why any investment strategy has to consider a long enough period of time to take into account all likely possibilities. And the longer the sample period, the more possibilities there are. Six months does not validate a strategy. We have strong convictions that TSLA is going to a big place (and for very good reasons). You don't want to bet against that unless you have some special short-term insight that the options market is temporarily mispriced. And I have a pretty dim view of trying to time the market in general. Because it often behaves in unexpected ways.
Sweden had no restrictions and the economy tanked anyway because people were scared to go out. You can tell people not to worry about the zombies terrorizing the village, but until people are convinced the zombies are no longer a danger, they won't be going to the village.
Saying "we're open now" isn't going to make the economy magically come roaring back.
Saying "we're open now" isn't going to make the economy magically come roaring back.
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
"Feature complete" FSD is an artificial milestone that, from most aspects, will be a big nothing-burger. What matters is how well it works and when it can be put into service. While I'm probably more bullish than most on the timing of FSD regulatory approval (and less bullish than Musk appears to be), I do think feature-complete will be a big letdown for anyone who is assigning any importance to it.
Would not be surprised if they were Feature Complete around last NYE. It seems they have spent a lot of time rewriting the labelling process to go from hand labeled 2D images to autolabelled 3D video. They also increased the output of the network to be in birds eye view and use depth from camera. See this video:
My guess is that they realized that they would fail to reach 99.9999% with the old system and initial results from the new system seemed promising. So they took the decision to switch development to the new system. Along the way they had to rewrite almost every label and then start the slow process of improving, verifying, and cranking the data engine again. Let’s say 3 months to rewrite, 6months for verification.
I very much look forward to getting the first autolabelled neural network to my Tesla, I assume it will be much more confident at centering in the lane and have much fewer false positive breaking events.
I expect the first feature complete but requiring confirmation, like traffic lights today but for complex intersections and parking lots to be out this summer and be very confident around end of Q4. Q4 financials will be insane. FCA, FSD, GF3, Model Y ramped...
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JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Only if infections and deaths don't start shooting back up as we open up again. We have not broken the curve the way other successfully reopened countries have. The path may be more evident but the success of that path is less clear.
A new Youtube of Giga Berlin posted by Tobias Lindh. Lot's of new roads and you can see the shape and size of the factory being described by these roads - including the trademark cut off on one of the corners.
jeewee3000
Active Member
Not at once no, but at least it's a step in the right direction.
Also, many people do not fear COVID and only stayed at home due to enforced laws. These people will go shopping and the like, kickstarting the economy again.
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
Not sure many believe it will come roaring back. I think 30-40% will come back quickly, with the remaining coming back asymptotically over the next year or two.
yes, it is necessary but not sufficient. My concern is that too many people think it is sufficient, including Wall St.
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jeewee3000
Active Member
That is a too pessimistic view IMO. I'd say 50 to 75% reboot by the end of the year is possible.
Tobias Lindh also tweeted an interesting comparision of the progress of Gigas Shanghai and Berlin:
Tobias Lindh on Twitter
Tobias Lindh on Twitter
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Do we have any spies at Fremont? Can we see parking lot activity?
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
That's pretty much in line with what I'm saying. 30-40% by end of June.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Gee.....I wonder if it's financially optimal for market makers to keep TSLA pegged to $812? The rigid "steps" of TSLA trading days/weeks is just hilarious.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
7.0 M shares of TSLA traded by 11:12 EDT. (avg daily vol is 18.6 M)
SP $811.18 +4.1%
TSLA has been extremely resilient this a.m. in the face of two separate bear attacks, rebounding from $5 icicles both times.
I think we got ourselves some JDF 'top cover'...
TSLA $814.79 @ 11:20 EDT
EDIT: Just took out the intraday High (which was 818.00), now its $819.59 which occurred in the 11:26 trading min. Upper-BB now advanced to 830.08
EDIT2: TSLA @ $823.37 at 11:45 w. Upper-BB 831.58
Cheers!
SP $811.18 +4.1%
TSLA has been extremely resilient this a.m. in the face of two separate bear attacks, rebounding from $5 icicles both times.
I think we got ourselves some JDF 'top cover'...
TSLA $814.79 @ 11:20 EDT
EDIT: Just took out the intraday High (which was 818.00), now its $819.59 which occurred in the 11:26 trading min. Upper-BB now advanced to 830.08
EDIT2: TSLA @ $823.37 at 11:45 w. Upper-BB 831.58
Cheers!
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To early to pat myself on the back and proclamation my genius?
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