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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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I am another who would love to see Elon offer a tranche or two back to employees. Tesla is not 100% Elon and this would be an appropriate way to show that he is not in it for the money.

Offer tranches #3 and #6 to employees to both reward and incentivize the workforce.
Giving away stuff in the US, at least in any big quantity, is fraught with complications and tax consequences. It's easy to say this, but the only real way to do it would be to have the board alter his grants. He can't just take it, and give it away.
 
I would think the MM's who sold those shares, were selling covered ones. They've been burned a few times in recent history, and I'd be surprised if they immediately went back to it.

However, that being said, I'd be surprised if we closed above 800 today. Fremont opening for limited productivity probably won't overcome the Market Manipulators.

Hm, so far this comment has not aged well.

Lets keep it that way. :p
 
I assume you are selling covered calls as am I. I try to pick a 4-6 week expiry at a price that I would be okay with letting them go that has about a 5% chance of hitting based on the options analyzer expected probability. I also factor in upcoming announcements that I feel can effect the SP and am a bit more conservative e.g. these next few weeks due to Battery Day.
Based on the Super Bull Long membership handbook, 2017 edition, that still allows me to keep my Super Bull membership card. Which BTW, I noticed at this weeks SBL luncheon, about a 40% drop-off in membership after last weeks shakedown. Role call took all of 4 minutes.;)
Anyway, what criteria and theories do you use to determine your expiration dates and strike prices? As much as I think I'm okay letting them go for 25% more than the current price, I still don't like the possibility of FOMO. My last one was a $960 5/15 which had me nervous last Thursday when it was in the high $800's. Was able to capture 60% of it's value though on Friday so if it gets back in the $800's, I'm thinking about a $1,200 expiring late July after the ER.

I think those of you selling covered calls for small profits along the way are playing with fire you don't understand. Everything is hunky-dory until it's not. Yes, I'm talking about having your shares called away at a price you claim you would be happy with (but that is only true until you see what could have been). I've seen the premiums you are able to collect by doing this and they are so small it's laughable. As you collect your regular tiny profits, you might want to pray to the God of your choice that volatility to the upside won't, at some point, surprise you.

Here's an interesting article about a guy I actually respect even though he basically engages in a form of short-selling. But he has used his knowledge of market disruptions and volatility to profit from the things the market gets wrong. And it's a lot like what you guys selling covered calls are doing (except in reverse). Only in this case, the double reverses don't make a positive. Boy, that was confusing but I think if you read the article you will understand why, even as someone who believes markets go up over time and shouldn't be bet against, I basically respect what he's doing, while I don't think the selling of covered calls is a wise choice on a stock like TSLA:

How A Goat Farmer Built A Doomsday Machine That Just Booked A 4,144% Return

It's interesting reading for anyone wanting a better understanding of markets. When I said it's the "reverse", I mean he's paying a regular small premium to have a shot at the big payday that he knows will come due to volatility and the way the overall market responds to negative disruptions. The big payday covers all the small losses and then some. I respect him because he's got a grasp on the mathematics and odds of it all so it works out. I think you guys are on the wrong end of the bet in the long run.
 
An additional note for the morning breakout. Remember my opinion on following options is more to gauge the emotion of the SP.... happy or sad. Well this morning a premarket look. I have not seen this but I typically do not look before the market opens. Big move on PUTs expiring TODAY. Could this be an error? This is volume.
options 050820 start - Edited.png



If we look now there are no 770 PUTs showing up. There is a big open interest on (edit) 850 CALLs.
From an emotional roller coaster point of view it seems to me Max pain is rising today (currently at 760 for what I follow)

For a win loss point of view I think THEY are positioning for best results if the SP closes close to 800.... so far this morning. Lets see if we get a push down.
Screenshot 2020-05-08 at 9.06.30 AM - Edited.png


This week someones have had pretty good control over the SP so take all this however you want. It's not really tradable for people that want to swing trade or day trade. Since THEY have been able to put it where they wanted all week, THEY can screw you with the click of a mouse button. It has been fun to just watch.... I take my SP shaken not stirred.
 
Going to be super interesting on what MM's do here, whether they try to push it back down under $800, or give that up as dead and defend $850 - where there's and even bigger call-wall.

I've a put sell order for the first and call sell orders for the latter. Probably my luck that it hangs around $815 for the rest of the day.

I do however declare that today's $745 put is in safe territory... :rolleyes:
 
They're really trying to hammer it down as of now. Don't think it'll work.

I've made enough today. Going to play with my boy who knows the secret that the only reason I day trade is to try and get a Roadster 2.0. lol

If the stock doesn't launch up end of day I'm buying a bunch before the close. lol

p.s. to the poster a few above. This week has been super easy to day trade this stock. I'm a total n00b and have done really well this week.
 
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I think those of you selling covered calls for small profits along the way are playing with fire you don't understand. Everything is hunky-dory until it's not. Yes, I'm talking about having your shares called away at a price you claim you would be happy with (but that is only true until you see what could have been). I've seen the premiums you are able to collect by doing this and they are so small it's laughable. As you collect your regular tiny profits, you might want to pray to the God of your choice that volatility to the upside won't, at some point, surprise you.

Here's an interesting article about a guy I actually respect even though he basically engages in a form of short-selling. But he has used his knowledge of market disruptions and volatility to profit from the things the market gets wrong. And it's a lot like what you guys selling covered calls are doing (except in reverse). Only in this case, the double reverses don't make a positive. Boy, that was confusing but I think if you read the article you will understand why, even as someone who believes markets go up over time and shouldn't be bet against, I basically respect what he's doing, while I don't think the selling of covered calls is a wise choice on a stock like TSLA:

How A Goat Farmer Built A Doomsday Machine That Just Booked A 4,144% Return

It's interesting reading for anyone wanting a better understanding of markets. When I said it's the "reverse", I mean he's paying a regular small premium to have a shot at the big payday that he knows will come due to volatility and the way the overall market responds to negative disruptions. The big payday covers all the small losses and then some. I respect him because he's got a grasp on the mathematics and odds of it all so it works out. I think you guys are on the wrong end of the bet in the long run.

Have managed my CC all the way from 300's. Not that bad actually, and lot better than buying PUTS for downside protection.
(+ small self generated dividend. )
 
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