Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[CorneliusXX]

People rarely do things out of spite but if you don’t understand how personal relationships drive improved business and policy outcomes then I’m not sure I’ll be able to teach you.

Elon has had an abysmal cv-19 crisis from the perspective of company pr, employee morale and his handling of public officials. Whether this affects long term demand and efficiency is yet to be seen. One can only imagine how the tantrum on leaving California immediately is seen by the average Tesla employee.

He remains the most brilliant product designer out there. But he is becoming a complete liability as CEO. Trouble is no one could effectively do the job of ceo with him still at the company.

I’m at the point now where I’d prefer to see him step back entirely and focus on SpaceX, but on retainer for product design. Not a popular sentiment on these pages. But this is a Tesla Investor forum, not the Elon Musk fanclub. A penny for the thoughts inside the halls of Baillee Gifford right now.

I'd say you're looking at it the backwards. There appears to be only one issue you're focused on (Elon's handling of the COVID crisis) and that is reason enough to dismiss him.

Think about what he achieves throughout the business (both historically and ongoing):

• Product design - as you acknowledged
• GF3 delivered in 1 year - while extracting truly remarkable terms from the Chinese government
• Huge interest in a weird looking truck
• Strong financial performance through cost management
• The vision and strength to build huge factories in Berlin and Texas
• The vision and conviction to build the worlds best batteries
• The logic to see through dead end processes like lidar
• The magnetism to attract the worlds best talent
• The drive and motivation to get his team to produce outcomes that are impossible for other auto OEMs

I could go on. But the core of my point is that there is no-one else who has the sheer presence of will and brilliant technical ability to drive these world changing projects at the speed being achieved. Anyone else would be more hesitant to leap into the scale that is needed to grow the company or to embark on projects that have so much risk, and even if they did they'd be unlikely to be able to execute on the plans because they wouldn't have the same technical capacity to see through the issues or capacity to create and motivate the team to achieve the goal.

Who would you recommend to replace Elon?

 

[Steve m]

I'd say you're looking at it the backwards. There appears to be only one issue you're focused on (Elon's handling of the COVID crisis) and that is reason enough to dismiss him.

Think about what he achieves throughout the business (both historically and ongoing):

• Product design - as you acknowledged
• GF3 delivered in 1 year - while extracting truly remarkable terms from the Chinese government
• Huge interest in a weird looking truck
• Strong financial performance through cost management
• The vision and strength to build huge factories in Berlin and Texas
• The vision and conviction to build the worlds best batteries
• The logic to see through dead end processes like lidar
• The magnetism to attract the worlds best talent
• The drive and motivation to get his team to produce outcomes that are impossible for other auto OEMs

I could go on. But the core of my point is that there is no-one else who has the sheer presence of will and brilliant technical ability to drive these world changing projects at the speed being achieved. Anyone else would be more hesitant to leap into the scale that is needed to grow the company or to embark on projects that have so much risk, and even if they did they'd be unlikely to be able to execute on the plans because they wouldn't have the same technical capacity to see through the issues or capacity to create and motivate the team to achieve the goal.

Who would you recommend to replace Elon?

Why obviously Montana Skeptic

 

[StealthP3D]

Elon has had an abysmal cv-19 crisis from the perspective of company pr, employee morale and his handling of public officials. Whether this affects long term demand and efficiency is yet to be seen. One can only imagine how the tantrum on leaving California immediately is seen by the average Tesla employee.

He remains the most brilliant product designer out there. But he is becoming a complete liability as CEO. Trouble is no one could effectively do the job of ceo with him still at the company.

I totally disagree with that and a short conversation my wife had today with a right-wing Christian acquaintance that she interacts with on an almost daily basis will illustrate what I'm talking about. This woman is no Tesla fan but my wife told me while they were doing a chore together and talking about CV, the lockdown, etc. and without the subject of Tesla being raised she piped up and said (something like) "I think I like that Elon Musk, he seems like no-nonsense kind of guy". My wife couldn't figure this comment out because this woman has shown a certain amount of disdain for "liberal" things like Californians, environmental regulations and liberal government policies and Musk and Tesla were not even part of the conversation.

Tonight, I was filling her in on some of these recent Musk activities and she lit up and said "now it makes sense" and proceeded to tell me the above story. Musk is gaining standing in the eyes of millions of Americans who previously had a dim view of him as a California liberal living off government handouts.

Standing up to "overbearing" government policies that are causing economic hardship for thousands of blue-collar workers has excellent optics in the eyes of millions of Americans. People are getting sick and tired of having everything dictated to them by inept government agencies. By standing up to a government agency like the Alameda County Health Department Musk is becoming a hero to an entirely new class of fan.

 

[Tslynk67]

What detractors fail to understand is that Elon being constantly in the headlines, and c'mon, it's every day now, no? Is massive exposure for Tesla. Doesn't matter whether it's positive or negative, it's pushing it into people's minds on a regular basis.

I'm inclined to think that much (not all...) of his Tweets, even the outrageous ones, are designed to keep it that way.

 

[CorneliusXX]

New Giga 3 update:

I love these updates. It's incredibly interesting to see how quickly phase 2 is coming along and how it differs from phase 1.

Does anyone know what this raised girder is for? Could just be part of the facilities conduit like what leads into the battery pack building.

They're building a ramp at the northern end of phase 2. Temporary structure to help with construction? Given its position it should lead in to where the stamping/foundry section will go if phase 2 is similar to phase 1 rotated 180 degrees.

The whole western side is made up of the heavier steel beams and there are extra levels at the far end compared to phase 1.

The paint shop appears to be fully isolated from the rest of the factory - maybe a new safety measure.

One of the smaller buildings appears to have an extra wide span - what's going in there?

The corner section on one of the outbuildings is getting heavy foundation work It looks similar to when they were building the foundation for the substation.

There's another gantry sticking out the side of phase 2 similar to what is in the battery building. Is pack production going to be integrated into phase 2?

The top level on the western edge and through the centre look like they could be for some sort of conveyor. Is Tesla going to have another go at alien dreadnought?

Lots more questions than answers at the moment.

 

[Steve m]

The testing quotas are silly. If less people are getting sick, less people will ask to be tested. Unless they are going to start pulling random people out of their homes and cars just to meet the testing requirement.

The idea of combining contact tracing with testing is that you identify likely infected people and then you test them.

As we open up retail shopping the number of people possibly infected increases. Ideally each of those people would be tested. Those infected would hide from the world for 2 weeks and those not infected would go back to their lives.

The problem in my opinion is that the goals of the health department is not being funded by the county bean counters.

So companies such as Tesla are being made to suffer.

Ain't that fun.

 

[MABMAB]

I’m surprised he did not say they would move to Ouray, Colorado.

 

[RobStark]

I am glad Scott Haggerty of Alameda County bureaucracy put May 18th on the record.

When they go in front of a Judge is Alameda County going to say that May 18th is off the table because Elon posted mean tweets? And insulted Alameda County bureaucrats?

 

[Khamul]

I am glad Scott Haggerty of Alameda County bureaucracy put May 18th on the record.

When they go in front of a Judge is Alameda County going to say that May 18th is off the table because Elon posted mean tweets? And insulted Alameda County bureaucrats?

Speaking of mean tweets: Take a look at this one. She's a politician currently serving in the California State Assembly.

 

[Mike Smith]

'County health officials are working with Tesla to develop a safety game plan so that they can re-open on May 18, and that's still the case at this point.' (2:42)
-Scott Haggerty, Alameda County Supervisor

 

[wooter]

That is.....impressive.

I've always been amazed by the quality of Tesla's communications department. It really has an Apple-like feeling to it.

Also amazing to drop this over the weekend.

 

[RobStark]

Regarding Lives vs Jobs or Lives vs Lives debate

Calls to suicide and help hotline in Los Angeles increase 8,000% due to coronavirus

 

[Tslynk67]

Regarding Lives vs Jobs or Lives vs Lives debate

Calls to suicide and help hotline in Los Angeles increase 8,000% due to coronavirus

I can imagine. It's all very well for those like myself and my wife who are comfortably WAH on full pay, but there are many out there facing, if not already in, financial ruin, others whose dreams are being dashed daily.

I'm not saying this in the context of whether we should reopen or not, it's just a fact.

 

[Prunesquallor]

'County health officials are working with Tesla to develop a safety game plan so that they can re-open on May 18, and that's still the case at this point.' (2:42)
-Scott Haggerty, Alameda County Supervisor

Interesting how now is the first anyone has heard of May 18.

 

[Buckminster]

So what are the Cybertruck timelines?

1. Phase one of Gigafactory Texas complete - May 2021?
2. First Tesla cells made in Nevada - December 2020?
3. First Cybertruck (made with new Tesla cells from Nevada) - July 2021?
4. 3000 per week - October 2021?
5. Gigafactory Texas Phase 2 complete - October 2021?
6. Cybertruck made will Texas cells - December 2021?

 

[Prunesquallor]

Perhaps local health officers would have more trust in Tesla’s ability to protect their staff and prevent further spread, if Musk hadn’t spent his time on Twitter and in employee communications making out that cv-19 was nothing to be worried about (less dangerous than driving to work), promoting a bizarre conspiracy theory that the overall societal mortality statistics were being faked, pumping fringe treatments and calling public officials “fascists”.

Perhaps local health officials should read Tesla's published plan to operate Fremont safely rather than Twitter.

 

[ZachF]

An Apple factory ?

Fremont is pretty big... that's a whole lotta nets they've got to install around it if they want to take it.

 

[Prunesquallor]

If that’s not a sign!

Glad the Sphinx is back! Mad, wet Tabby was kinda concerning....

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

It would be nice if tesla wins this battle...but honestly opening on the 18th is not a disaster. Don't forget all those other car factories that open early to make fossil fuel cars are making cars they cant sell.... they would probably love the opportunity to trade places with tesla
I do think that elon could use this real threat to move operations elsewhere to persuade texas to allow selling of cars in the state, which would be a nice bonus ahead of the cybertruck.

Ultimately I don't think the SP will do much if they re-open on monday, or the 18th. Its already factored in, and productivity will be l;ow for a few weeks anyway until the lockdown is totally over and people can operate normally anyway.

8 days is a tiny percentage of this years production, and getting smaller every day as GF3 ramps up.

 

[Prunesquallor]

So what are the Cybertruck timelines?

1. Phase one of Gigafactory Texas complete - May 2021?
2. First Tesla cells made in Nevada - December 2020?
3. First Cybertruck (made with new Tesla cells from Nevada) - July 2021?
4. 3000 per week - October 2021?
5. Gigafactory Texas Phase 2 complete - October 2021?
6. Cybertruck made will Texas cells - December 2021?

Re 1.: Whew. That’s only one year from (presumed) announcement until Phase 1 completion. Ambitious, but we know it’s physically possible.