Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[phantasms]

Can we get one damn day of natural trading where the stock doesn't dive right at open and then get walked lower all day????

Its been weeks now of the same trading action, day in and day out. Literally the only day in the past 3 to 4 weeks that did not exhibit the same exact capping/walk down methods was of course the day the uptick rule was in effect.

Agreed it's pretty wild. I'd guess macros will sell off later in the day and it'll dump TSLA right near 800.

Maybe the whales are nervous about the macros and aren't loading up. Retails investors are already in or our and not changing.

Maybe when better day happens and it's clear that there's going to be a giant Tesla logo on the moon the stock will shoot up to high of 850. lol

 

[ProfTournesol]

Looks like we are going to get an Austin Texas Tesla factory announcement imminently:

Monitor Elon's flights. Was succesfull for Berlin....

 

[mikevbf]

Monitor Elon's flights. Was succesfull for Berlin....

From the video it looks like Tesla has already started construction!

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Can you explain how does this relate to Tesla investments? There are plenty places on the internet where you can discuss your views on this, where you do not look like spammer. I miss the moderators. And Mr. Detweiler you are on ignore from me.

Well, I'm sorry I am on your ignore list. As I stated in a later post, this topic has nothing to do with investments, I stated my respect for alternate views, and I apologized for stating my views here. The post I responded to struck a nerve. Sorry to clutter up the investment thread. Oh, and I'm not a spammer. Just an old conservative "boomer". LOL

Dan

 

[Intl Professor]

Straw-man argument. Nobody in the discussion here has implied or suggested that there be a law requiring people limit their birthrate. You are tilting at windmills here. Glad to see you support personal choice, Pro-Choice can always use more voices.

I do wish, from time to time, that birth control were retroactive.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Agreed it's pretty wild. I'd guess macros will sell off later in the day and it'll dump TSLA right near 800.

Maybe the whales are nervous about the macros and aren't loading up. Retails investors are already in or our and not changing.

Maybe when better day happens and it's clear that there's going to be a giant Tesla logo on the moon the stock will shoot up to high of 850. lol

Macro's continue higher, Tesla continues to be walked lower. What is max pain for this week? 800 again???? For the 3rd week in a row? The lack of buying volume to me makes it very clear to me the only trading being done is by option makers. I can't really understand why no buying volume has come in. So much good news over the past week. I know some people here trade options but I hate the option mechanism and the past 3-4 weeks have shown exactly why.

Practically every auto maker is up 5-8%. Even Nio is up 7%. I guess Tesla isn't an automaker and doesn't deserve to participate in the auto rally today lol

 

[Prunesquallor]

Looks like we are going to get an Austin Texas Tesla factory announcement imminently:

Drone pilots...start your engines!

 

[dww12]

Macro's continue higher, Tesla continues to be walked lower. What is max pain for this week? 800 again???? For the 3rd week in a row? The lack of buying volume to me makes it very clear to me the only trading being done is by option makers. I can't really understand why no buying volume has come in. So much good news over the past week. I know some people here trade options but I hate the option mechanism and the past 3-4 weeks have shown exactly why.

Patients. I bought some 5/22 800 calls this AM thinking we were off to the races too. Looks like I’ll have to wait more than 2hrs.

 

[dww12]

Drone pilots...start your engines!

Yeah, where are they? I’m about to make the 3hr drive after work. I thought for sure there would be a few from Austin residents.

 

[ProfTournesol]

Patients. I bought some 5/22 800 calls this AM thinking we were off to the races too. Looks like I’ll have to wait more than 2hrs.

Pretty weak if you ask me. Volume is low (5.8 in two hours, there have been days in less then 10 mins). QQQ up 2.3% and TSLA is lingering down to 800... MM's are doing their job I think.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Bricks and Mortar Retail May Have Peaked in 2015, Batteries, and more.

ARK puts their analysis on top of the Reuters’ battery story (CATL $60/kWh).

“At that cost, ARK estimates that a Model 3 with a 75kWh battery pack could sell for roughly $23,000. In ARK’s latest forecast, EVs hit price parity with comparable gas-powered vehicles in 2022, so Tesla’s battery breakthroughs, if true, will accelerate the timeline by one to two years.“

 

[Mo City]

Bricks and Mortar Retail May Have Peaked in 2015, Batteries, and more.

ARK puts their analysis on top of the Reuters’ battery story (CATL $60/kWh).

“At that cost, ARK estimates that a Model 3 with a 75kWh battery pack could sell for roughly $23,000. In ARK’s latest forecast, EVs hit price parity with comparable gas-powered vehicles in 2022, so Tesla’s battery breakthroughs, if true, will accelerate the timeline by one to two years.“

Does the $23,000 number make sense? What is the current estimated battery cost for Tesla?

 

[JusRelax]

Does the $23,000 number make sense? What is the current estimated battery cost for Tesla?

Yeah, I don't know if the $23k number makes sense either. I'd like to see their cost breakdown. Hopefully, they'll list one.

 

[woodisgood]

Someone has really made it their mission to crush the Tesla options market. I’ll give you a hint. It starts with Cit and ends with adel. My guess is this continues for several more weeks. Not advice of course because I’m a dummy.

I’ve said it before - the original mispricing in the Tesla options market that led to many investors/speculators raking in HUGE gains in the last 6 months wasn’t going to go unpunished. It has simply led to more obvious and heavy-handed control of the stock.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Yeah, where are they? I’m about to make the 3hr drive after work. I thought for sure there would be a few from Austin residents.

There are about a bajillion members in the Austin Tesla Club. I figure they are on a convoy to Hutto.

 

[ZachF]

Drone pilots...start your engines!

*Charge your batteries

 

[Captkerosene]

Macro's continue higher, Tesla continues to be walked lower. What is max pain for this week? 800 again???? For the 3rd week in a row? The lack of buying volume to me makes it very clear to me the only trading being done is by option makers. I can't really understand why no buying volume has come in. So much good news over the past week. I know some people here trade options but I hate the option mechanism and the past 3-4 weeks have shown exactly why.

Practically every auto maker is up 5-8%. Even Nio is up 7%. I guess Tesla isn't an automaker and doesn't deserve to participate in the auto rally today lol

The market is acting rationally in this case. The prospect of a vaccine late this year has given hope for a quicker recovery. Companies that are at risk of failure are outperforming companies that are expected to survive the downturn.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Does the $23,000 number make sense? What is the current estimated battery cost for Tesla?

I assume they are thinking the pack is roughly $12,000. That would be about $160/kW at the pack level.

Dan

 

[Reductionist]

Does the $23,000 number make sense? What is the current estimated battery cost for Tesla?

This makes no sense sadly.
Let's assume that Tesla is currently at $100 per kWh on the cell level. The new cells would lower that to $60 per kWh, for a saving of $3000 per vehicle with a 75 kWh battery. The Model 3 long range is currently $49k. Even if you were to strip down other aspects of the drivetrain/interior, you don't get $26k of savings. If you assume that Tesla's current cell cost is $150 per kWh, you get savings of $6750 per vehicle. Even with this very high estimate, the savings don't add up. I'm assuming here that Ark means a sales price of $23k with decent margins, not production cost.
This is ignoring the fact that the LFP cells have an energy density of ~160 Wh/kg, in contrast to Tesla's current 250 Wh/kg. So the whole discussion is moot, because 75 kWh of LFP cells don't physically fit into a Model 3.

 

[Singuy]

Enough of this manipulation nonsense.

Today is a transition from Covid resistant stocks to stocks that were battered by covid due to positive news about vaccines.

Please step out of your Tesla bubble and look at all stocks that did pretty well with V shape recoveries/stocks that hit all time highs during Covid.

Amazon
Netflix
AMD
Shopify
Activision Blizzard

All not getting any love today while Disney, auto makers, cruise ships, Airlines are all getting the gains. Just a transition guys, all the volume are with stocks that just got crushed and have yet to recover.