There were big gains if you bought LEAPS at the bottom of the C19 drop too
And there are returns of 3-5% of capital for weekly put/call sales, while the SP is range-bound...
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
There were big gains if you bought LEAPS at the bottom of the C19 drop too
And there are returns of 3-5% of capital for weekly put/call sales, while the SP is range-bound...
Not sure how you can say that and ignore the daily pattern that's been established for weeks. It's not like the stock has been rallying for days/week and today out of nowhere the stock isn't following the macros. If you really think the stock isn't being manipulated right now, I'd say you're the one in a bubble. Again, all other auto stocks are rallying. The stocks you listed are stay at home stocks and it's very obvious why they are not following the macros today.
No kidding. At Fully Charged Live this year, it was just an endless stream of owner's club vehicles shuttling attendees back and forth.
adiggs
Well-Known Member
Yes, it is. Though max pain this early in the week, for a weekly options expiration, is of low value. It'll move during the week, on relatively low total options volume (compared to last week - a monthly options expiration).
Notice any patterns to stocks rallying today? Stocks that need bail out/solvency issues with Covid priced in to last a year. A vaccine is the cure of their solvency issue as now a sooner than expected vaccine is being priced in. All the stocks I named have zero affect on earnings despite vaccines, or may even have an negative effect if a vaccine is developed quicker.
Tesla is more software based curbside deliveries. They practically didn't change their guidance during last earnings call while every automaker guided way down and all of their stocks are 40-50% below pre Covid levels as of yesterday while Tesla enjoyed the V recovery other tech stock had. So I wouldn't cry about F getting a 8% jump today...if vaccine is an issue than F is looking at bankruptcy. Are you saying Tesla is looking at bankruptcy too if no vaccine is around? The market doesnt think so obviously.
Look at SHOP trading pattern today and super impose it on Tesla. Almost mirror images. So please with this stock goes not how you think it must be manipulation nonsense.
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Do I really need to point out that Tesla had spectacular Q1 earnings and the stock dropped? Tesla didn't get some massive rally or boost over the past 3 weeks since their earnings. It's not like Tesla stock has wildly rallied higher than the macros or Ford stock for the past 4 weeks. Anyways, I completely understand why certain sectors and stocks are rallying today and some are not. I still very much say Tesla is being capped and walked down through manipulation. We can agree to disagree.
smorgasbord
Active Member
You're not being "cavalier," you're misrepresenting the facts and I suspect that's because they're not on your side. The business models for Solar City (long term leases) and Tesla (cash sales - short term leases are a recent addon) were/are quite different, so they're not directly comparable in the way you're attempting. Solar City wasn't in debt because of customer acquisition or manufacturing costs, they were in debt because their business model was literally to take on the up-front costs of solar panel purchases and installation, and then get paid back over a long period of time (decade, maybe more).
So, it made no sense for Musk to claim, as he did, that Solar City would be "cash flow positive" within six months.
Musk himself wrote in emails at the time: “Three things need to happen to change investor sentiment: SolarCity solving its liquidity crisis, an LOI with Panasonic to address solar cell production risk, and a joint product demo. Should be able to do all those before the shareholder vote.” (Tesla's Elon Musk knew SolarCity faced a 'liquidity crisis' at time of 2016 deal, legal documents show )
From https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2019/09/solarcity-was-insolvent-when-tesla-paid-2-6-billion-to-buy-it-lawsuit-says :
"Almost immediately after the acquisition closed, SolarCity's auditors [Ernst & Young] confirmed that SolarCity was, in fact, insolvent," attorneys for the investors argue in their latest filing. E&Y's year-end audit, conducted in January 2017, determined that SolarCity did not have sufficient cash to meet its obligations and could not operate on its own as a going concern.
SolarCity only continued to function because of SpaceX money, the suit alleges:
"As SpaceX's chairman, CEO, CTO, and majority stockholder, Musk caused SpaceX to purchase $90 million in SolarCity bonds in March 2015, $75 million in June 2015, and another $90 million in March 2016. These bond purchases violated SpaceX's own internal policy, and SolarCity was the only public company in which SpaceX made any investments."
"
And should Solar City fail as a company, Space-X would be holding those worthless bonds.
You even agree that Solar City was having trouble raising money thanks to short sellers like Chanos. I don't disagree with that, but Musk's claims at the time about cash flow and the viability of the solar roof product do seem to be inaccurate. Were they intentionally inaccurate? That may be for the courts to decide.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Super low volume means the SP can be walked down $20. Is this how markets are supposed to work?
In post Covid world, holding on gains is good enough while the rest of the market tanks. How many times did big auto tanked 5-6% and Tesla tanked 1%? Lots of times. There's a reason why stock is still 800 while the rest are in the shitter. F down 35% past 3 months, TSLA is down 3%. How much of a rally do you want when delieveries are spotty and the factory was shut down? I think the market has been pretty fair to TSLA given the circumstances.
MartinAustin
Active Member
That "Torque News" youtube channel is posting a new video every day, with IMO no substantial new information. He does this because he knows he makes money from it... everyone is hungry for news. Personally I am not waiting for that youtube channel to be breaking anything significant.
Two friends of mine in the Austin area took these pictures Sunday 17th. One from an airplane above the site and several from the ground. To me it looks like something, but nothing much, has started.
Willie: Possible Tesla Factory Site between Hutto and Taylor
Aerial photography by Lenny Tropiano in his Piper Cherokee @ 3500' :
Two friends of mine in the Austin area took these pictures Sunday 17th. One from an airplane above the site and several from the ground. To me it looks like something, but nothing much, has started.
Willie: Possible Tesla Factory Site between Hutto and Taylor
Aerial photography by Lenny Tropiano in his Piper Cherokee @ 3500' :
Look I'll just respond this one last time. I'm not talking about fair value. I'm not saying Tesla should be higher, lower, etc...What I'm pointing out as well as others have pointed out, is that trading on Tesla shares have repeated, daily characteristics...for weeks now. We're way past 1 or 2 days being an anomaly. Hell practically everyone that follows options guessed exactly where the share price would end last week at the beginning of the week.
smorgasbord
Active Member
Remember that Musk first mentioned "Giga Texas" back on Feb 4:
Elon Musk on Twitter
So, all the machinations about moving manufacturing and HQ and such were not just spur-of-the-moment due to Covid related shutdowns and re-opening delays. It was clear Musk's plan was to build stuff in Texas, he's just been taking the opportunity to get some concessions.
He probably had a good laugh seeing other states trying to convince him to setup a GF there. He had already decided and was moving ahead, most likely before Feb.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
All these investors that don't understand the value and stretegy of the SCTY acquisition and look at Tesla as a technologically advanced automotive company really don't deserve the 10x they're about to get. It'll be rooted entirely in the Energy side, based on the foundation of grid services and aggregation that the Rive brothers started and Elon is continuing.
The residential business model was in fact entirely at fault. Just like Sunrun still does, SolarCity saw avg acquisition costs remain flat as they tried to scale. It was never going to work, that's why Elon fired all the door-to-door sales people immediately. They now sell online at set prices and will take over the install lead from Sunrun in short order. Because the model now scales, installs nationwide will explode. All they need is some better service and communication.
Residential energy products and services from the old SolarCity unit will be insanely profitable and the grid level work will integrate seamlessly. Then we cross $1T as the largest energy company in the world.
Mo City
Active Member
I don't think he had a good laugh. As with Austin's (apparently) failed bid for GF1 six years ago, 2nd place finishers sometimes win the next time. Would not surprise me if Tesla already has an idea where their next U.S. facility will be.
LN1_Casey
Draco dormiens nunquam titillandus
Also, Tesla is in a much better position to negotiate this time around. Before, they were a barely there, possibly going to fail car maker. Now, they're the #2 per capita vehicle manufacturer. And that land has been "sitting" there all this time. If they wanted someone to develop there, as seems to be the case when Tesla was scouting it before, they didn't find anyone between then and now.
I kind of hope it's Tulsa (even though that makes little sense if Austin is indeed coming now), as their courtship site scores an A+ from me...
I agree there's manipulation especially Fridays in which we almost 100% end the day with a whole number of 10s. I don't see any signs of manipulation Monday/Tuesday.
Uber is closing its AI division. Somehow the stock is UP on that news. Which is strange for a company that has admitted it cannot survive without self driving tech.
Uber lays off another 3,000 employees – TechCrunch
Zoox also up for sale.
Self-Driving Unicorn Zoox Shops For A Buyer
Interesting times. It depends on how you read the tea leaves but this is either a sign Tesla's competition in robotaxis are failing before they launch or a sign that some partnerships are in the works.
For me this is a bullish sign for Tesla
Uber lays off another 3,000 employees – TechCrunch
Zoox also up for sale.
Self-Driving Unicorn Zoox Shops For A Buyer
Interesting times. It depends on how you read the tea leaves but this is either a sign Tesla's competition in robotaxis are failing before they launch or a sign that some partnerships are in the works.
For me this is a bullish sign for Tesla
smorgasbord
Active Member
I agree with you that the residential business model was a problem. But, that's not what was said at the time. That Elon fired the sales teams, moved engineering to "help out with Model 3" and such showed that this wasn't about continuing Solar City's good work, it was about saving SCTY from going bankrupt and avoiding the domino effect that would have on at least Space-X. That acquisition hurt us TSLA shareholders at that time.
Musk even admits today he should have let Solar City do its own thing: "And if I could wind back the clock, you know, I would say probably would have let SolarCity execute by itself; would have let Tesla execute by itself.” (Elon Musk says shifting SolarCity workers helped Tesla stay afloat )
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