Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[mrdoubleb]

Why exactly are we humouring schizophrenics now?

View attachment 380365

Agreed, having said that, there is a chance we`ll see this nonsense across a "breaking news" banner on CNBC or Bloomberg before the end of the day.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Volt has essentially 1.75 powertrains in one car and is intrinsically more expensive than either ICEv or BEV.

Honda Clarity PHEV is a significantly better car for only $50 more plus it has the $7500 Federal Tax Credit for the foreseeable future.

Volt's ends this Quarter. I could not see how Volt could compete against Clarity PHEV, apparently neither does GM.

Easy...where can you fuel a Clarity? I live on the east coast. Any ideas?

Dan

 

[RobStark]

Easy...where can you fuel a Clarity? I live on the east coast. Any ideas?

Dan

You can fuel a Clarity PHEV anywhere there is a Gas Station or a Plug.

A Clarity FCEV may be much more difficult.

 

[KarenRei]

GF3

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

Some of these twitter trolls are too stupid to live. The idea that we are not all 100% getting behind a company that

1) Furthers technological progress
2) Creates jobs
3) Earns a PROFIT FFS.
4) Is doing more than seemingly any other company on earth to prevent catastrophic climate change

is just staggering to me...

but the idea that people waste their sad, pathetic little lives ACTIVELY trying to STOP that company?
These people are dangerous, stupid.... I shouldnt state what i really think should happen to such people.
I hope they short TSLA like crazy because they will (hopefully) lose their homes over it.

 

[Cobbler]

Why exactly are we humouring schizophrenics now?

View attachment 380365

I'm just being paranoid after spending too much time in the 250$ - 380$ band for 3 years.
I'm playing this song everytime when I read about $TSLA:

Time to enter the $400 to $600 band for 2019!

 

[Vitold]

Some of these twitter trolls are too stupid to live. The idea that we are not all 100% getting behind a company that

1) Furthers technological progress
2) Creates jobs
3) Earns a PROFIT FFS.
4) Is doing more than seemingly any other company on earth to prevent catastrophic climate change

is just staggering to me...

but the idea that people waste their sad, pathetic little lives ACTIVELY trying to STOP that company?
These people are dangerous, stupid.... I shouldnt state what i really think should happen to such people.
I hope they short TSLA like crazy because they will (hopefully) lose their homes over it.

It is not stupidity- it is desperation.

 

[Fact Checking]

Mike Flores on Twitter

Tesla to hand over GF1 to Panasonic?
WtF? This has to be the worst FUD ever.
Does it make any sense?

That's a nonsensical argument on its face:

• This (false) rumor is contrary to very recent guidance in Tesla's audited 10-K that calls for expanding GF1 with billions of dollars of production capacity: "We have also announced that we will likely manufacture Model Y, which we intend to produce at high volumes by the end of 2020, at Gigafactory 1."
• Reno resident Carsonnight who is regularly talking with GF1 employees reported that Tesla is going to expand the building later this year.
  
• Tesla owns all of the Gigafactory building (Panasonic leases the parts they are using), and more than two thirds of the equipment in the factory. It's basically a Tesla Gigafactory with Panasonic a (valued) tenant. Now that Model 3 has ramped up Gigafactory 1 is part of Tesla's cash cow, making the cells, drive trains and power electronics for their very profitable growth segment. Growth companies generally do not sell or weaken control of cash cows.
  
• Elon himself said the following on January 30, that they are expanding GF1:
  • Elon Musk: "Model Y is, I think, 76% was what it got in common with the Model 3. And we're most likely going to put Model Y production right next to - in fact, it's part of our main Gigafactory in Nevada."

More sophisticated TSLAQ types usually try to avoid making such nonsensical, easy to falsify lies.

The real reason there's a renewed flood of TSLAQ lies on Twitter is that they are trying to nullify a number of upcoming positive Tesla news:

• The Consumer Reports downgrade turned out to be contradicted by CR's own data ... the effect on the stock price was fading on Friday already.
• Tesla is going to pay back $920m of convertible notes in cash on March 1, this Friday, in four days.
• Trump delayed the China tariffs from March 1 to a later date, which means "tiny profits in Q1" can become more substantial profits and more substantial cash flow by shipping more cars to China at the lower 15% import tariffs, not the 40% tariffs.
• Alpha male Tesla short Jim Chanos himself said it recently: "[Tesla] turned from a massive loss to the most profitable car company in the world in one quarter.". He said it skeptically after the Q3 results, but that turnaround has now been confirmed by Q4 cash flow and the audited 10-K results for 2018.
  
• See this excellent post by @Singer3000 about the vastly improved financials of Tesla.

I.e. I'd expect more TSLAQ nonsense leading up to Friday.

 

[KarenRei]

That's a nonsensical argument on its face:

• This (false) rumor is contrary to very recent guidance in Tesla's audited 10-K that calls for expanding GF1 with billions of dollars of production capacity: "We have also announced that we will likely manufacture Model Y, which we intend to produce at high volumes by the end of 2020, at Gigafactory 1."
• Reno resident Carsonnight who is regularly talking with GF1 employees reported that Tesla is going to expand the building later this year.
  
• Tesla owns all of the Gigafactory building (Panasonic leases the parts they are using), and more than two thirds of the equipment in the factory. It's basically a Tesla Gigafactory with Panasonic a (valued) tenant. Now that Model 3 has ramped up Gigafactory 1 is part of Tesla's cash cow, making the cells, drive trains and power electronics for their very profitable growth segment. Growth companies generally do not sell or weaken control of cash cows.
  
• Elon himself said the following on January 30, that they are expanding GF1:
  • Elon Musk: "Model Y is, I think, 76% was what it got in common with the Model 3. And we're most likely going to put Model Y production right next to - in fact, it's part of our main Gigafactory in Nevada."

More sophisticated TSLAQ types usually try to avoid making such nonsensical, easy to falsify lies.

The real reason there's a renewed flood of TSLAQ lies on Twitter is that they are trying to nullify a number of upcoming positive Tesla news:

• The Consumer Reports downgrade turned out to be contradicted by CR's own data ... the effect on the stock price was fading on Friday already.
• Tesla is going to pay back $920m of convertible notes in cash on March 1, this Friday, in four days.
• Trump delayed the China tariffs from March 1 to a later date, which means "tiny profits in Q1" can become more substantial profits and more substantial cash flow by shipping more cars to China at the lower 15% import tariffs, not the 40% tariffs.
• Alpha male Tesla short Jim Chanos himself said it recently: "[Tesla] turned from a massive loss to the most profitable car company in the world in one quarter.". He said it skeptically after the Q3 results, but that turnaround has now been confirmed by Q4 cash flow and the audited 10-K results for 2018.
  
• See this excellent post by @Singer3000 about the vastly improved financials of Tesla.

I.e. I'd expect more TSLAQ nonsense leading up to Friday.

I'll reiterate: why are we even talking about a post from someone who is clearly a paranoid schizophrenic?

Are we next going to talk about his assertion that Elon's thugs' PI teams are hacking his home electronics?

 

[K_Dizzle]

I'm just being paranoid after spending too much time in the 250$ - 380$ band for 3 years.
I'm playing this song everytime when I read about $TSLA:

Time to enter the $400 to $600 band for 2019!

The route to $400+ in 2-4 months is s&p inclusion

 

[Fact Checking]

I'll reiterate: why are we even talking about a post from someone who is clearly a paranoid schizophrenic?

In my comments I'm primarily talking about the reasons behind the recent uptick in TSLAQ lies about Tesla, and his (arguably fact free) Twitter post was as good as any to demonstrate the level of derangement and to sum up the major pieces of positive Tesla developments the TSLAQ conmen are fearing.

I also found it useful to sum up to what extent Tesla owns and controls GF1, there's some confusion about that even among bullish investors.

 

[Fact Checking]

The route to $400+ in 2-4 months is s&p inclusion

That's still contingent on about ~$300m in Q1 profits, which very much depends on how fast those ships can deliver and depends on a number of other random, discretionary factors up to Tesla management and whether Tesla wants to post a substantial Q1 profit, or is content with maximizing growth with tiny profits.

 

[nursebee]

SP500 inclusion to change price evidence is very weak.

 

[JRP3]

I don’t know. Perhaps somebody else would like to step in the roadster’s path and let us know the result. Cheers.

I assume you would step in the path of every other vehicle without autopilot because that's safer? Or are you suggesting all vehicles be banned because they might hit someone?

 

[Sancho]

Thanks for creating the Moderators’ Choice thread. I was surprised how many of these posts I hadn’t seen despite being a daily reader of this forum. There’s too many posts now to absorb it all. It would be a huge service if the Mods picked even more posts each week to highlight.

 

[KarenRei]

Finally, Glovis Star is underway (to Europe).
GLOVIS STAR Current position (Vehicles Carrier, IMO 9736808) - VesselFinder

Lots of vehicle carriers queued up, one should take Pier 80 momentarily. Probably either Glovis Countess or Violet Ace.

 

[Fact Checking]

New SP500 inclusion to change price evidence is very weak.

I think the effect of Tesla being included in the S&P 500 could be substantial, passive index funds will have to own about 5%
of Tesla, and for that reason "index arbitrage" is a thing.

Here's an estimate I made about S&P 500 inclusion a few weeks ago:

A couple of months ago I estimated it to around 7 million TSLA shares, worth 2.4 billion dollars at today's prices. (But my confidence in this estimate is low.)

I.e. about 5% of Tesla.

Roughly equivalent to the Tencent event, or last June's run-up when the Saudi PIF was buying ~8 million shares.

But there's a halo effect as well, S&P 500 inclusion will unlock a whole new tier of investors.

Twitter ($TWTR) was included in the S&P 500 last June: price went from $28 to $46, a +65% increase, which was sustained until August.

During the recent $300 drop June and August 4xx+ call options were still ridiculously cheap.

Not advice, things could go wrong: recession, Trump, Elon tweeting or Tesla narrowly missing profitability in Q1.

The question is now, will this happen after Q1 or after Q2. The Q1 delivery numbers will tell this for sure, and long term options are still mis-priced AF so if you want to bet on that outcome you can go with the more conservative August time-frame S&P 500 inclusion outcome, at which point any Q2 profit would result in S&P 500 inclusion. (Absolutely not advice.)

 

[bhtooefr]

In my home state of MN, the new D governor says he wants to increase the EV surcharge paid at annual registration so he can fund more public charging stations. It's again this mindset that we need to install slow L2 charging stations everywhere, which makes no sense for city use (We already have that driving range covered). If you want to help EV owners, add incentives for them to install their own chargers, or how about just not increasing taxes on EV ownership.

There is still the apartment problem - California's laws requiring that landlords allow installation of home charging equipment help, but aren't a complete solution.

That said, what would make the most sense is for workplaces to install charging equipment. The most efficient time to charge is during the day, when most cars are at work, not at home, as that optimizes use of solar generation - it's consumed when it's being generated, rather than requiring storage or curtailment. (Myself, I feel that workplaces should also cover their parking lots in solar, which would also eliminate distribution losses for at least part of the charging, and add new generation capacity for all of this. It would also prevent solar heating of car interiors in the summer, reducing HVAC loads, and in winter, it would reduce snow cover of cars (it wouldn't allow solar heating, but a snow covered car isn't getting solar heating either).)

Here's a way for a Moderator to get around the "Don't fix typos or grammatical errors" dictum, and still make everyone's Sunday night.

In Japanese -

• "Mirai" translates as "Future", but.....
• "Murai" translates as "Never"

Thought y'all would like that. Am not sure Toyota would.

Wiktionary is claiming that it translates to kanji that either mean impoliteness/rudeness, or that mean scoundrel/scoundrelly/vagrant/vagrancy.

 

[Zaxxon]

Thomas Mueller

Hmm--not only a great soccer player but also an international law-enforcement superagent?

 

[Cobbler]

I'll reiterate: why are we even talking about a post from someone who is clearly a paranoid schizophrenic?

Because we love discussing rumors. The same as discussing a rumor about pickup truck manufacturers buying electric drivelines from Tesla ;-)
In the end, the SP is mainly emotion driven considering it is still at $300 level. If rational would rule the trade levels, we already would be above $500