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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Since there's no more equity raises planned Tesla management doesn't care as deeply about short term stock price anymore I think, and offering conservative guidance is by far the safest bet.

I can see the logic of constantly refusing the bait of gathering additional capital until the horse is beaten to death and everyone agrees it is not going to happen. That is the time to plump up the capital reserves, when you seem least to need it and banks are begging for a little TSLA in their loan portfolio. Get a good rate and use it wisely or just have it in waiting in the event a great opportunity appears.

Of course as their FCF ramps it really might not be the best idea. But one day I would like to see TSLA get a piece of the SpaceX satellite network in support of FSD and mobility as a service ala LIFT.
 
Since there's no more equity raises planned Tesla management doesn't care as deeply about short term stock price anymore I think, and offering conservative guidance is by far the safest bet.
Any company that has employee stock options cares about stock price. EM talked about how the mood of Tesla employees goes up and down with the price. When it is low, they feel under compensated.

I remember Balmer talking about MSFT stock price that was stuck in high 20s quite often - obviously not because they wanted to raise capital.
 
I can see the logic of constantly refusing the bait of gathering additional capital until the horse is beaten to death and everyone agrees it is not going to happen. That is the time to plump up the capital reserves, when you seem least to need it and banks are begging for a little TSLA in their loan portfolio. Get a good rate and use it wisely or just have it in waiting in the event a great opportunity appears.

I'll risk a prediction: I don't think Tesla is going to raise equity, ever again. They will remove equity from the market, via stock buyback.

Why? Right now free cash flow is at a cool $1b per quarter. Every 3 months Tesla gets cash that is comparable to their biggest dilutive equity raise events in their 10+ years corporate history.

But the FCF flow is much better: it is from happy customers, and it's 100% non-dilutive.

Every single quarter.

What's not to like about that? I think Elon might even stop participating in the quarterly earnings conference calls and do the kind of free form interviews like ARK podcasts instead. Steve Jobs didn't do the quarterly calls either IIRC.

Employee satisfaction and equity compensation matters, but I think most Tesla employees already know and accept that Elon is maximizing their long term return and mostly ignores short term volatility - it's a package deal.
 
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Tesla, Inc. submitted an application under Rule 24b-2 requesting confidential treatment for information it excluded from the Exhibits to a Form 10-K filed on February 23, 2018.

http://ir.tesla.com/static-files/4c34f22a-0f01-49b6-b4e8-9021c31d8a3c

Bears are screaming right now. Explain how this could be bullish/bearish?

If Tesla was doing some sort of "evil", confidentiality wouldn't have been granted.

It means that Tesla is doing something big that it doesn't want made public yet.
 
If Tesla was doing some sort of "evil", confidentiality wouldn't have been granted.

It means that Tesla is doing something big that it doesn't want made public yet.

Also, the 10-K is audited, and auditors obviously saw the confidential bits as well.

Confidential filings are normal, we don't have unredacted access to the full GF1 contracts with Panasonic either.
 
What's not to like about that? I think Elon might even stop participating in the quarterly earnings conference calls and do the kind of free form interviews like ARK podcasts instead. Steve Jobs didn't do the quarterly calls either IIRC.

Thanks for the comments and I like what you are saying a LOT. I guess I am often looking for amplifiers and accelerators and a bit of debt (when it is not needed) can get others (banks) on board and accelerate change. As a possible example, I don't know what Starnet (I think) is going to cost but I expect a lot. I don't want to see SpaceX go public but I could see a partnership of some sort where Tesla (perhaps others) help accelerate the deployment. The benefit is to amplify the deployment such that the FCF (hopefully) from Starnet flows in faster as well as other benefits possibly unseen at this point. Maybe this works with the Boring company also but personally commercialization of space is the most interesting.

I don't mind a stock buyback if that bonus share value can work some amplifier magic equally well.

Just some thoughts on a windy day.