Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Carl Raymond]

I assume you would step in the path of every other vehicle without autopilot because that's safer? Or are you suggesting all vehicles be banned because they might hit someone?

One determines if it’s safe by estimating distance up the road to approaching car, speed estimate of approaching car, plus a margin for safety should the car accelerate.

It’s that margin that becomes a great unknown. If the car is a roadster, or future similar spec car given that every sports car company will copycat, it’s effectively a missile. In my experience the sort of people who buy such machines display below average levels of courtesy.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

One determines if it’s safe by estimating distance up the road to approaching car, speed estimate of approaching car, plus a margin for safety should the car accelerate.

It’s that margin that becomes a great unknown. If the car is a roadster, or future similar spec car given that every sports car company will copycat, it’s effectively a missile. In my experience the sort of people who buy such machines display below average levels of courtesy.

That margin is already a great unknown. Some cars accelerate much quicker(order of magnitude) than others. The roadster going slightly quicker than that doesn’t change things significantly. Usually, you can adjust the margin somewhat in your head based on what the car looks like. That looks just as possible with a roadster as with any other car.

 

[VValleyEV]

Just saw some new FUD, mostly focused on claims of no demand in Europe based on registration data so far:
Tesla: Demand Truth Coming Soon - Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha

Author is Bill Maurer, statistics quoted only from Norway and Netherlands, could be because those are the lowest or slowest to catch up to reality:
————copy/paste——-

• Norway S/X: 108 units versus 468 in November.
• Netherlands S/X: 9 units versus 736 in November.
• Norway Model 3: 355 units.
• Netherlands Model 3: 382 units

————————

Some hand-wringing about the S/X drop because author believes scary being the big profit luxury segment. Then of course the conclusion is “In regards to the Model 3, is it getting late early? There are just a couple of days left in February, and Tesla apparently hasn't even hit 1,000 registrations yet between Norway and the Netherlands.”

Thoughts? Is this cherry-picking of statistics? Just wait a few days and we will have strong European registration and sales numbers?

 

[SO16]

Police say officers tried to save the driver but couldn’t open the door because there was not a handle.

Wasn't there some system in place that after crash doors open automatically?

So the police don’t have a way to break the glass?

 

[anthonyj]

Wants to fill mornings gap up

 

[SO16]

Driver killed in 2-car crash at South Fulton intersection
One dead after single-vehicle crash in Sheboygan County
2 killed in Fairfax County single-car crash identified | WTOP

There are a ton more...but you get the idea.

No mention of car make in headline either.

 

[EVNow]

Tesla, Inc. submitted an application under Rule 24b-2 requesting confidential treatment for information it excluded from the Exhibits to a Form 10-K filed on February 23, 2018.

http://ir.tesla.com/static-files/4c34f22a-0f01-49b6-b4e8-9021c31d8a3c

Bears are screaming right now. Explain how this could be bullish/bearish?

Looks like an extension of confidential treatment. Not a new request.

Tesla, Inc. submitted an application under Rule 406 and Rule 24b-2 requesting an
extension of prior grants of confidential treatment for information it excluded from the
Exhibits to filings listed below.

I've to wonder if this has anything to do with supplying drivetrain for some pickups. The timing (till Dec 31 '19) would say the pickup would be released / unveiled in Detroit auto show next year.

 

[lascavarian]

Although this article is about the fate of auto insurance, I have to wonder about the impact on TCO of the increasing safety benefits of autonomous driving tech.

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

Particularly with the wider release of Sentry Mode, we will soon see the results of the improving intelligence of vehicles with sensors and video feeds and the impact on insurance payouts. Companies like AVINEW may be onto to something. There is a dance here between privacy and cost savings but the incentive seems to be where it should be in the sense that personal data is not being sold by a third party for their profit.

Additionally, I wonder how 3rd party video feeds might change how insurance claims are settled. As prevalence of vehicles with video streams being captured becomes common, then it would be likely that almost any activity at any intersection would be documented on video. Vehicles could automatically identify accidents and store the incident video for use by insurance companies when there is a claim dispute. This could reduce factual disputes and result in savings. Interesting opportunities for a clever insurance company to work this out to the benefit of drivers and sell a lot of policies.

What I wonder about is if this will impact demand by lowing the TCO. We are beginning to see the further appearance of a virtuous circle of benefits with EVs. Higher insurance cost has always been a concern when buying a new vehicle. What if buying a new vehicle offered lower insurance costs, improved safety, reduced cost per mile etc etc? Seems like that would open demand a little when incentives when cash incentives fade.

 

[EVNow]

Totally correct. But the fact is that Tesla seems to get news stories with each crash, probably simply to generate clicks. But these stories can not be positive for the SP in the short term..

Yes - they have learnt that anything to do with Tesla gets clicks. That's why it is always mentioned in the headline - even with a 3 wheel NEV as a "competitor to Tesla".

 

[scaesare]

The driver was speeding, but the speed hasn't been assessed yet. It was clearly enough to plow straight through multiple palm trees (those fan palms evolved to survive Cat 5 hurricanes... they're packed full of high-tensile fibres and are *extremely* difficult to break).

From that article you categorized as not being news: "Witnesses told officers that the Tesla appeared to be traveling between 75 and 90 mph when the crash happened and initial evidence from the scene appears to confirm that, Leone said."

 

[Drax7]

People like to hear good things about their unhealthy habits,
Brocolli is good for you does not sell copy.

Same mentality applies to tesla.

 

[Thumper]

It is not uncommon for a crash to occur as a result of a medical event with the driver. Sometimes they are dead by the time of impact or are debilitated so they cannot help themselves.

 

[KarenRei]

Tesla Registration Stats

Model 3 registrations really getting rolling in Norway:

Over half are P3D.

March is going to look awesome

 

[Garlands]

Tesla Registration Stats

Model 3 registrations really getting rolling in Norway:

View attachment 380425

Over half are P3D.

March is going to look awesome

Anyone know the record for most registrations in Norway for a single day?

 

[Garlands]

Anyone know the record for most registrations in Norway for a single day?

Nevermind, i see its 287 set on 12/19/2017

 

[MP3Mike]

Anyone know the record for most registrations in Norway for a single day?

According to Tesla Registration Stats 287 Tesla registrations on 12/19/2017.

 

[Cherry Wine]

No sign of TSLA on the "Selling on Strength" indicator today. Good news.

 

[Remus]

Just checking—-you are joking right?

Several years ago charlie munger criticized GS for exploiting their clients, but he defended Berkshire's investment in GS saying something on the line of you should invest based on how the world works now not how it should work.

Several days ago Mr. buffet commented on their selling of Oracle stock: because they don't understand how this cloud thing works.

And they invested in IBM, on the verge of being irrelevant, pushed by, guess what, cloud computing.

Mr. Buffet praised Jeff bezos for leveraging internet to disrupt retail, after everyone can see the writing on the wall. But he still doesn't see Amazon's potential in cloud, and leveraging cloud for not only PAAS but also logistics, marketing, shipping... Read the story on how "Amazon coat" took off and see Amazon's power to make or break a company.

And they invested in Apple, right at the time device innovations slowed and people no longer rush out to buy the latest.

There is this great animated chart here showing how the biggest company changed in the past several decades. Count how many of the old top ones are in Berkshire portfolio, and how many new ones are.

Berkshire invests in established companies with significant market share and "stable" performance. They did a great job identifying how the world works now. Or should I say how the world worked in the past. It's a prudent investment strategy for risk averse investmentors.

Tesla Bulls, ask yourself, does that strategy fits your reasoning in investing in TSLA?

 

[schonelucht]

Thoughts? Is this cherry-picking of statistics? Just wait a few days and we will have strong European registration and sales numbers?

It's cherry picking at its finest. February is always a weak month for S/X and this year doubly so due to a change in incentives in the Netherlands and the US. My prediction is we'll see registrations pick up in March for Norway and later this year (June?) in the Netherlands. It's true that Model 3 deliveries disappoint a little, but that's more due to logistics not being able to follow rather than a lack of demand. If anything, Dutch and Norwegian customers are screaming to get their cars sooner later than later. And those that get them are turning out great brand ambassadors kicking in the second wave of ordering as the year rolls on.

 

[KarenRei]

It's cherry picking at its finest. February is always a weak month for S/X and this year doubly so due to a change in incentives in the Netherlands and the US. My prediction is we'll see registrations pick up in March for Norway and later this year (June?) in the Netherlands. It's true that Model 3 deliveries disappoint a little, but that's more due to logistics not being able to follow rather than a lack of demand. If anything, Dutch and Norwegian customers are screaming to get their cars sooner later than later. And those that get them are turning out great brand ambassadors kicking in the second wave of ordering as the year rolls on.

To back this up (and extend my previous screenshot):

(And remember that February is not over yet)

Seriously, who doesn't know by now that Tesla's sales are highly seasonally-cyclic, and also highly varied by market depending on where Tesla wants to focus their efforts?