Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[willow_hiller]

The mechanics of option positions closing on a Friday, and the unwinding of hedging positions by market makers when those positions are closed leading to common Stock being bought or sold, actually naturally moves the stock price close to a round number where strike places are. It happens with every stock with large option trading activity, and the effect is amplified on Fridays with large amounts of option positions expiring. If you run the same analysis on other stocks with high levels of Options trading you will find the same pattern, it isn’t unique to Tesla. That doesn’t mean there aren’t attempts at manipulation of course, but the underlying trend for the stock to end a Friday close to a strike price is an underlying quirk of the system, not necessarily manipulation.

Good explanation, but it does seem like TSLA is slightly extraordinary in this regard.

Just ran it for the same dates for AAPL. Odds of a 5 on Monday-Thursday is 11.0%, with odds of a 5 on Friday being 9.3%. High p-value of 0.537 means the relationship is likely zero.

EDIT: Checked AAPL for 0s as well since they'll have fewer expiries ending in 5s. Odds of a zero on any day is 8.8% no matter Monday-Thursday or Friday, with a p-value of 1 indicating no relationship whatsoever.

 

[StealthP3D]

Just a word of caution regarding Monday expectations. Today the markets had a massive rally fueled by a shockingly good jobs number.

However, not all is as it appears with the jobs number (4.7 million people not working and not getting paid were classified as “employed“), so expect the media to have turned the narrative on the jobs number before markets open on Monday. (It should be noted even when taking the classification peculiarity into account the jobs number was still better than expected).

View attachment 548327

Keep in mind that the apparent fact that a large number of workers were misclassified was part of the May employment report.

In other words, this was not a surprise finding - it was released with the employment data early this morning before the market opened.

 

[Curt Renz]

the_wolfpack_berlin - today:

 

[Artful Dodger]

After-action Report: Fri, Jun 05, 2020: (Full-Day's Trading)

VWAP: $877.60
Volume: 7,830,615
Traded: $6,872,119,945.46 ($6.87 B)

Closing SP / VWAP: 100.93%
(TSLA closed ABOVE today's Avg SP)
TSLA Mkt Cap: $164.268 B (90.74% of TM)​

FINRA Short/Total Volume = 60.4% (55th Percentile rank Shorting)
FINRA Volume / Total NASDAQ Vol = 46.9% (47th Percentile rank FINRA Reporting)
FINRA Short Exempt Volume was 1.29% of Short Volume (51st Percentile rank).

Comment: "TSLA bucks early dip to match NDX gains"

 

[Thekiwi]

Good explanation, but it does seem like TSLA is slightly extraordinary in this regard.

Just ran it for the same dates for AAPL. Odds of a 5 on Monday-Thursday is 11.0%, with odds of a 5 on Friday being 9.3%. High p-value of 0.537 means the relationship is likely zero.

EDIT: Checked AAPL for 0s as well since they'll have fewer expiries ending in 5s. Odds of a zero on any day is 8.8% no matter Monday-Thursday or Friday, with a p-value of 1 indicating no relationship whatsoever.

Most long dated options for Apple are in the $10 increments, so best to focus on those. I have followed Apple very closely for over a decade and for many years it was always a big laugh In the Apple investor communities how many LEAP dates expired on a strike to the exact penny - ie $XXX.00c.

 

[Thekiwi]

Keep in mind that the apparent fact that a large number of workers were misclassified was part of the May employment report.

In other words, this was not a surprise finding - it was released with the employment data early this morning before the market opened.

Yes that’s right (the highlighted text In the image I posted is from the official release). The more important implication is that it is admitting to be undercounting unemployment for the last two monthly job counts. There has been basically near zero coverage of that today, instead all the coverage is on the improved headline figure (which quite rightly should be celebrated, but it’s less than 3 million jobs gained from tens of millions lost, but something is better than nothing of course)

 

[adiggs]

The Hornsdale Battery Project was pointed out as a better path than Australia's efforts to fast track government funding to the natural gas industry through DERP during this economic crisis:

The Honest Government Ad series is a serious black hole of goodness . Thanks for posting that @Paracelsus

 

[StealthP3D]

Yes that’s right (the highlighted text In the image I posted is from the official release). The more important implication is that it is admitting to be undercounting unemployment for the last two monthly job counts. There has been basically near zero coverage of that today, instead all the coverage is on the improved headline figure (which quite rightly should be celebrated, but it’s less than 3 million jobs gained from tens of millions lost, but something is better than nothing of course)

I was simply pointing out that the information will not be a surprise to the market (because it was already widely known before the market closed). Basically, I'm disagreeing with your characterization of it having "near zero coverage today".

Here are just a small sampling of stories that covered exactly this, all of them released this morning:

BLS reclassifies employees to create a Narrative of economy on a rebound II : conspiracy
Surprise: The BLS Admits Another Phony Jobs Report
Trying To Figure Out The Crazy 'Drop' In Unemployment
https://www.advisorperspectives.com...loyment-rate-drops-to-13-3?topic=mutual-funds
137,242,000: Number of Employed Americans Increases; Unemployed Down; Improvements All Around
Trying To Figure Out The Crazy 'Drop' In Unemployment (Forbes even covered it!)

I could provide a lot more links but I got tired of cut/paste. The bottom line is the financial/investing community was all over this story beginning early this morning, shortly after the report was released. To say it's going to surprise the market come Monday morning is to say you don't understand how the market works.

 

[Thekiwi]

I was simply pointing out that the information will not be a surprise to the market (because it was already widely known before the market closed). Basically, I'm disagreeing with your characterization of it having "near zero coverage today".

Here are just a small sampling of stories that covered exactly this, all of them released this morning:

BLS reclassifies employees to create a Narrative of economy on a rebound II : conspiracy
Surprise: The BLS Admits Another Phony Jobs Report
Trying To Figure Out The Crazy 'Drop' In Unemployment
https://www.advisorperspectives.com...loyment-rate-drops-to-13-3?topic=mutual-funds
137,242,000: Number of Employed Americans Increases; Unemployed Down; Improvements All Around
Trying To Figure Out The Crazy 'Drop' In Unemployment (Forbes even covered it!)

I could provide a lot more links but I got tired of cut/paste. The bottom line is the financial/investing community was all over this story beginning early this morning, shortly after the report was released. To say it's going to surprise the market come Monday morning is to say you don't understand how the market works.

Of course I don’t understand how markets work, if I did I would be swimming Scrooge McDuck style in ***** instead of frequenting Internet forums.

 

[Ameliorate]

I was simply pointing out that the information will not be a surprise to the market (because it was already widely known before the market closed). Basically, I'm disagreeing with your characterization of it having "near zero coverage today".

Here are just a small sampling of stories that covered exactly this, all of them released this morning:

BLS reclassifies employees to create a Narrative of economy on a rebound II : conspiracy
Surprise: The BLS Admits Another Phony Jobs Report
Trying To Figure Out The Crazy 'Drop' In Unemployment
https://www.advisorperspectives.com...loyment-rate-drops-to-13-3?topic=mutual-funds
137,242,000: Number of Employed Americans Increases; Unemployed Down; Improvements All Around
Trying To Figure Out The Crazy 'Drop' In Unemployment (Forbes even covered it!)

I could provide a lot more links but I got tired of cut/paste. The bottom line is the financial/investing community was all over this story beginning early this morning, shortly after the report was released. To say it's going to surprise the market come Monday morning is to say you don't understand how the market works.

To add to this, Cathy Wood in the latest video suggests "hours worked" is a more meaningful metric than jobs/jobless reports with regards to how the market reacts.

Segment starts at 5:24

 

[c041v]

the_wolfpack_berlin - today:

Thanks Curt!

This is starting to make more sense. The spread footings are moving along quickly, as you can see one formed up. It will likely be filled with concrete in the next day or two (are they working through the weekends?) and there is a pretty decent assembly line forming. The larger hydraulic truck crane is for the structural steel and you can see they've already reinforced the perimeter, with the black sand/grid area ahead of the crane as it travels around the footings. That crane might look like overkill at the moment, but it is likely sized to have the most reach with thew fewest moves and the ability to move some very heavy machinery into place as required. The structural steel in may be as early as 2-3 weeks away at this rate. That's a pricey crane to keep idle.

They are also preparing a secondary setup nearly identical to the first, I think these are for some sort of assembly lines, as they appear to both run for a ways and are getting heavy duty footings. The middle section that is a raised pile of sand will stay at roughly that elevation and be bridged with a thinner slab - that is the space between the lines.

 

[AZRI11]

VW Group is a mess. Power struggle and finger pointing during a pandemic is a disaster. Oh, and their software issues aren't even close to being solved.
Volkswagen to install Porsche's CEO as VW brand chief: Auto Motor and Sport | Article [AMP] | Reuters

 

[MP3Mike]

Speaking of VW and software:

SoylentBrown @BrownSoylent · 2h

Not much going on lately but I thought this was worth posting: One of my staff got some of the VW ID.x software. It's no wonder they have issues: it appears to be written by a classroom of drunken, sleep-deprived 4th graders. Unbelievable this level of work passed code review....

 

[Singuy]

Climate change is really flicking off Floridians this year. My parent's home insurance climbed 40%. Mine just came in and it's almost 80% higher than last year! Guess insurance companies are sick and tired of replacing everyone's roof after all these hurricanes year after year.

I have this feeling that a wave of pro green energy politicians incoming as this is hitting our pocket books especially during this rough time.

 

[Jack6591]

VW Group is a mess. Power struggle and finger pointing during a pandemic is a disaster. Oh, and their software issues aren't even close to being solved.
Volkswagen to install Porsche's CEO as VW brand chief: Auto Motor and Sport | Article [AMP] | Reuters

@AZRI11 I know this is dated; but I still see Elon’s proposal from 2015 as making great sense. Who knows, desperate circumstances require desperate solutions. I’d love to Volkswagen given the opportunity to solve dieselgate with electric vehicles.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-vw-scandal-diesel-gasoline-2015-9?amp

 

[Jack6591]

This is the first I’ve heard of Novonix.

Novonix rockets amid Tesla collaboration rumours, commercialisation plans and research breakthrough

A nod to @JRP3 a few step ahead as usual...well done.

 

[printf42]

Never a dull day in TSLA land
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1269160682852880386?s=21

This will probably get me into trouble, but I feel I have to say it

 

[j0hn]

musk on twitter :

"This will probably get me into trouble, but I feel I have to say it"

 

[kengchang]

UMMMMMMMMMMMMM scared on what he has to say....probably something to do with the protest ?

Okay that ain't too bad

 

[RobStark]

COVID-19 Projections | US | CA | Alameda

This is the most pessimistic Covid-19 models, at least regarding USA. Doesn't seem too bad for Fremont factory.