Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MABMAB]

There is a new company to follow in the electric vehicle space. I read through some stuff, could not justify owning. Then came across this video:

That guy also has over 2 hours content building out models on tesla, not very bullish, seems quite educated. Short version: too expensive, buy and hold if you think it will change the world. This is part two of the model.

Any care to comment on the models? Frank sg?

 

[Singuy]

There is a new company to follow in the electric vehicle space. I read through some stuff, could not justify owning. Then came across this video:

That guy also has over 2 hours content building out models on tesla, not very bullish, seems quite educated. Short version: too expensive, buy and hold if you think it will change the world. This is part two of the model.

Any care to comment on the models? Frank sg?

More important TLDR is that he has a value investor mindset and is pretty conservative in nature. When he had his bull case at 35% growth, he had to reduce it to 25% because he does not believe TSLA can grow that much. But he also doesn't know since he pointed out how 2018 Tesla saw 100% growth so who knows. Seems like he needs way more digging to figure Tesla out. Elon said 50% growth, under 40% only if there's a world war. He needs to figure out why Elon is spitting out crazy numbers first.

 

[ZachF]

Since June 2012, Tesla's share price has increased about 3000%, or about 12X the mere ~250% increase in the Nasdaq Index in this period (the small blue line at the bottom of the chart).

And if enjoying ludicrous returns isn't enough for some investors, Elon's tweets add entertainment value and on rare occasion present buying opportunities.

View attachment 548764

Revenue has increased by ~6000% since 2012 too:

 

[mongo]

German Automaker Paradigms | June 6th, 2020 by Alex Voigt

“German engineering” has had a top-notch reputation for good reason for a long time, and it’s a reputation well deserved. The question I have is, how is it possible that this experienced industry that has dominated important segments of the auto market for such a long time, with all its resources, could fail so miserably in developing competitive fully electric vehicles (BEVs)?​

Tagging @avoigt

One line of thought would be that they have not spent 10,000 hours at it. Outliers (book) - Wikipedia

Even going with a typical 2,000 hour per year employment (conversative for Tesla):
Roadster: production 2008-2012 + development > 5 years, > 10k hours.
Model S: production 2012- + dev > 10k hours
Model X: production 2015- + dev > 10k hours
Model 3: reveal 2016 + dev + production > 10k hours
Model Y: built on 3, > 10k hours
Semi: reveal 2017 + dev almost 10k
Roadster: reveal 2017 + dev almost 10k

Spoiler: FSD

FSD: 'Paint it Black' Oct 2016, Karpathy joining: June 2017, 10k hours is approaching.

Traditional OEMs (sans a couple): > 10k ICE, < 10k EV. Then factor in outsource supply base of typical Tier 1s and lower.
Contrast to Tesla in house development with cross pollination of SpaceX (2002-2008 for first successful Falcon 1 flight, > 10k hours).

Tesla's first product was not mass market...
Nor was the 2nd...
Nor the 3rd...
The 4th had major teeething issues (<10k hours of mass production)
The second factory building the 4th is going great. As is the first line of the 5th.

OEMs may need 5+ years from deciding to build an EV to getting a good one (more with turnover).

 

[JRP3]

We've seen how bad moderation can do more damage to this forum than any single poster. Unfortunately it seems we have a moderator intent on continuing along that path.

Your post in the thread Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019-2020 Investors' Roundtable was deleted. Reason: No repeat of ‘Elon and Covid’ discussion in this thread

There are in fact many posts on that topic in this thread, including the one to which I responded, and I'm fairly sure I never specifically mentioned the "C" word at all in my comment. Why was my post singled out, as was my post which was first to mention the protests and rioting, when subsequent ones remained? For some reason I seem to be a target now which I do not appreciate after all my years on this forum. Fairness and consistency is important in moderating, if you can't apply "rules" evenly don't apply them at all. We were doing better when the mods were in hands off mode and only stuck to nuking trolls. Make less work for yourself and return to that operating mode.

 

[UncaNed]

I'm not sure about this for Q2. Prices have been reduced this Q in the US by a reasonable amount. Elon also had a tweet yesterday reminding people how easy it is to buy a Tesla. The former is a moderate demand driver, the latter a small demand driver....

"Elon also had a tweet yesterday reminding people how easy it is to buy a Tesla."
THIS! We seldom talk about this powerful differentiation between Tesla and ICE's, and by "seldom" I mean relative to it's potential marketing significance. There is a huge potential marketing channel that could be targeting those strongly disgusted with the dealership experience via quality viral videos and general Google search targeting that should take advantage of by memorably illustrating this point. If only I knew how to implement that.

 

[Jack6591]

The machine that builds the machine...


If Tesla can bring its German factory online in 2020, it really will have revolutionized the auto industry

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

I‘m not Alex, but I can assure you the german engineers are still worth their salary. You just have to let them do their job. Without beancounters and sharholder value interupting them. There‘s a reason Telsa will also open an engineering center in Berlin.

I imagine they’ll be more motivated to have their talents used for the mission, instead of cheating emissions.

 

[feigen66]

We've seen how bad moderation can do more damage to this forum than any single poster. Unfortunately it seems we have a moderator intent on continuing along that path.



There are in fact many posts on that topic in this thread, including the one to which I responded, and I'm fairly sure I never specifically mentioned the "C" word at all in my comment. Why was my post singled out, as was my post which was first to mention the protests and rioting, when subsequent ones remained? For some reason I seem to be a target now which I do not appreciate after all my years on this forum. Fairness and consistency is important in moderating, if you can't apply "rules" evenly don't apply them at all. We were doing better when the mods were in hands off mode and only stuck to nuking trolls. Make less work for yourself and return to that operating mode.

Dude, relax. All my posts got cleaned up too and I don't even mind.

 

[goinfraftw]

Dude, relax. All my posts got cleaned up too and I don't even mind.

Yep, I got a couple myself as well. They're working extra in order to ensure the quality of the posts here.

 

[Christine69420]

The machine that builds the machine...


If Tesla can bring its German factory online in 2020, it really will have revolutionized the auto industry

From the article:

The biggest innovations in the auto industry haven't involved propulsion — from Henry Ford to Toyota to Tesla, they've been about production.

 

[jerry33]

German Automaker Paradigms | June 6th, 2020 by Alex Voigt

“German engineering” has had a top-notch reputation for good reason for a long time, and it’s a reputation well deserved. The question I have is, how is it possible that this experienced industry that has dominated important segments of the auto market for such a long time, with all its resources, could fail so miserably in developing competitive fully electric vehicles (BEVs)?​

Tagging @avoigt

Seems simple enough. Different disciplines. There's almost no correlation of expertise between an electric car and an ICE.

 

[jbcarioca]

Seems simple enough. Different disciplines. There's almost no correlation of expertise between an electric car and an ICE.

I disagree. While there are very substantial powertrain differences, the fundamental skills are not rare in Germany. Apart from Power train the rest is still abroad-going vehicle. All the manufacturing skills are plentiful in Germany. The ingenuity is there too. The misconception that the skills are absence is caused, in my opinion, because the legacy automotive management is so grossly deficient.

if you doubt that the capabilities are present take a look at the BMW i3. Almost Every single thing wrong with that car was the failure of management process to understand what goals to set for the product. The manufacturing, including material, is brilliant. Drivetrain, not so much.

When the German Tesla designs come, people will understand.
Once GF-4 opens next year people will see just how amazing German industrial processes can be.

FWIW, the German industrial excellence is not conditioned on ethnic German workers. Just take a quick glance at their global footprints.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Even going with a typical 2,000 hour per year employment (conversative for Tesla):

Lol, 'talk-the-talk', or 'walk-the-walk...

Cheers!

 

[goinfraftw]

Revenue has increased by ~6000% since 2012 too:

That COGS though since Q3, 2018. Link: Tesla Cost of Goods Sold 2009-2020 | TSLA

 

[juanmedina]

There is a new company to follow in the electric vehicle space. I read through some stuff, could not justify owning. Then came across this video:

That guy also has over 2 hours content building out models on tesla, not very bullish, seems quite educated. Short version: too expensive, buy and hold if you think it will change the world. This is part two of the model.

Any care to comment on the models? Frank sg?

Buy puts on NKLA?

 

[Artful Dodger]

Seems simple enough. Different disciplines. There's almost no correlation of expertise between an electric car and an ICE.

Yes, in many respects thats true. EV-related skills, especially at Tesla, are all about electrical engineering and software.

True story: My millennial friend is a unix system administrator (managing about 50K servers). He bought his Model 3 SR+ in Sep 2019, shortly after hearing that its OS was based on Linux Ubuntu. Based on his experience with the product, he bought 8 shares of Tesla at $525 as we climbed out of the March dip.

Last week, he sold 3 shares at $898.10 for a 70% return in 2 mths. I told him, "Nice swing trade. Now you own 5 shares with a cost basis of $305".

He turns 30 this weekend. Keep it up, batter!

Cheers!

P.S. his younger brother is a P.Eng Working on him...

 

[Etna]

About the potential gigafactory in the UK, this is the company pushing for the deal:
Gravity | Smart Campus | Fast-track to the future, naturally

"Bellamy also reveals that Gravity failed in its bid to host a European Tesla gigafactory – a tenant that would have been perfect for the UK’s most sustainable business park. Tesla chose a 741-acre site in Berlin instead. "
Source Somerset feels force of Gravity

Clearly they have not given up and the Gravity site near Bristol is almost certainly the one that Elon visited a few days ago. The largest single building that the site can accommodate is 697,000 sq m which is comparable to GF3.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Yes, in many respects thats true. EV-related skills, especially at Tesla, are all about electrical engineering and software.

True story: My millennial friend is a unix system administrator (managing about 50K servers). He bought his Model 3 SR+ in Sep 2019, shortly after hearing that its OS was based on Linux Ubuntu. Based on his experience with the product, he bought 8 shares of Tesla at $525 as we climbed out of the March dip.

Last week, he sold 3 shares at $898.10 for a 70% return in 2 mths. I told him, "Nice swing trade. Now you own 5 shares with a cost basis of $305".

He turns 30 this weekend. Keep it up, batter!

Cheers!

P.S. his younger brother is a P.Eng Working on him...

Manages 50k servers...by himself? Hahaha...Linux servers manage themselves once they are up and running...just need the occasional VM tools upgrade or reboot.

 

[StealthP3D]

The machine that builds the machine...


If Tesla can bring its German factory online in 2020, it really will have revolutionized the auto industry

It would seem the title of that article from Business Insider is designed to set Tesla up for failure in the eyes of its readers. If the German factory doesn't start churning out cars until March of 2021, does that mean Tesla did not revolutionize the auto industry? I would argue Tesla has already revolutionized the industry. By showing others how to do it.

The text of the article seems balanced and realistic with one notable exception:

Construction began in 2018 and by early 2020 and pre-coronavirus outbreak in Wuhan, "Gigafactory Shanghai" in Tesla parlance was rolling out vehicles.

The China factory was still a muddy field in the beginning of 2019 and by years end the first MIC Model 3s were already rolling off the line so I think this achievement is not represented by that sentence.

My conclusion is the article was written in a neutral and accurate manner but some editor at BI got his hands on it and changed the date in the title from 2021 to 2020 and edited the dates in the quoted sentence to obscure how amazing Tesla's achievement in China was.

Seriously, if you take this article literally, Tesla will have to build the German factory even faster than the Chinese factory in order for it to be considered amazing. And nobody actually expects Tesla to beat the China timeline in Germany.