Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[adiggs]

Since June 2012, Tesla's share price has increased about 3000%, or about 12X the mere ~250% increase in the Nasdaq Index in this period (the small blue line at the bottom of the chart).

I got 3,138% of that. I guess I found a better entry price

 

[Fobble]

Buy puts on NKLA?

OT: Since NKLA came online, TSLA and NIO stocks look cheap

 

[capster]

German Automaker Paradigms | June 6th, 2020 by Alex Voigt

“German engineering” has had a top-notch reputation for good reason for a long time, and it’s a reputation well deserved. The question I have is, how is it possible that this experienced industry that has dominated important segments of the auto market for such a long time, with all its resources, could fail so miserably in developing competitive fully electric vehicles (BEVs)?​

Tagging @avoigt

Excellent article @avoigt.

In my own thinking, I summarize my answers to this question in this relatively simple way (after having spent a dozen years in automotive R&D at a top German OEM):

* Executives at established, traditional OEM’s are incapable — due to groupthink and the need for broad consensus (which together were driven by risk aversion inculcated during the bureaucratic infighting that took these executives to the top) — of moving in any new direction until there is compelling market data. That is there must be lots of sales before they can move. Ergo, they will never be first to market and may trail for a long time due to long development cycles.

* R&D is compartmentalized in such a way as to preclude innovation that synthesizes solutions across many ‘academic’ boundaries. Further, OEM R&D is ludicrously inefficient; okay maybe not to the level of the "billion dollar PowerPoint" of some militaries I’ve heard of, but not great especially when compared to someone like, say, a Tesla. R&D may in effect just be a marketing adornment with no significant relevance to the company’s business despite the level of expenditure at some OEM’s.

* OEM’s are process management and marketing organizations with a large dash of combustion engine engineering. To the extent engineers have the reins (and it can be a large extent depending on the OEM), they are mechanical engineers. Creating compelling EV’s requires overthrowing the existing engineering power structure in favor of electrical engineers and software developers. That is hard and probably not doable anywhere.

 

[Jack6591]

Acceptance is the first step...

Tesla Stock Could Rally to $1,500

I believe in stating affirmations aloud. I would like each you, three times a day, to look at yourselves in the mirror, and say the following in a loud, clear, and deliberate voice:

TSLA is a great value at $1,500 per share.

Say this with an assumptive confidence — an unmeasured arrogance.

The truth is, I wrote this during a moment of levity. My attempt at humor — I am many things, a comedian is not one.

In reality, this is one matter, where I completely disagree with Elon and some with far greater experience and training in financial analysis than myself. I have reviewed detailed posts regarding production and forecasting. I have considered applying earnings multiples to determine share price. While it’s not my position to discount any traditional modeling; Tesla stands alone. Tesla is unlike any company that has come before it. Therefore, I believe that it is impossible to value TSLA in any comparative analysis.

Tesla is in the throes of disrupting both the automotive and oil industries. After “Battery Day” Tesla will disrupt the utility industry, in essence the entire energy sector. So when I say TSLA is a great bargain at $1,500 per share; that is advice I give to my family and friends. My advice, buy today.

 

[EinSV]

I got 3,138% of that. I guess I found a better entry price

Nice! All you need now is one more 32X and you’re at 1000X

 

[wipster]

Hey, anyone else received emails direct from Tesla encouraging us to purchase a car? Received 2 in the last few days, don't remember getting any in the past. Cheap advertising, but advertising nonetheless?

 

[Christine69420]

Hey, anyone else received emails direct from Tesla encouraging us to purchase a car? Received 2 in the last few days, don't remember getting any in the past. Cheap advertising, but advertising nonetheless?

Have gotten at least 3 of these over the last year or two. Norwegian customer.

 

[wipster]

Have gotten at least 3 of these over the last year or two. Norwegian customer.

So that's the reason Norwegians buy so many Teslas! The power of email...

Makes me proud to be half Norwegian!

 

[HG Wells]

Hey, anyone else received emails direct from Tesla encouraging us to purchase a car? Received 2 in the last few days, don't remember getting any in the past. Cheap advertising, but advertising nonetheless?

Have gotten at least 3 of these over the last year or two. Norwegian customer.

Well at least none of the ones I got were asking me to trade in my model 3.
ICE dealers are sending me quotes on how much trade in they will give me on a 2020 truck.

 

[avoigt]

Excellent article @avoigt.

In my own thinking, I summarize my answers to this question in this relatively simple way (after having spent a dozen years in automotive R&D at a top German OEM):

* Executives at established, traditional OEM’s are incapable — due to groupthink and the need for broad consensus (which together were driven by risk aversion inculcated during the bureaucratic infighting that took these executives to the top) — of moving in any new direction until there is compelling market data. That is there must be lots of sales before they can move. Ergo, they will never be first to market and may trail for a long time due to long development cycles.

* R&D is compartmentalized in such a way as to preclude innovation that synthesizes solutions across many ‘academic’ boundaries. Further, OEM R&D is ludicrously inefficient; okay maybe not to the level of the "billion dollar PowerPoint" of some militaries I’ve heard of, but not great especially when compared to someone like, say, a Tesla. R&D may in effect just be a marketing adornment with no significant relevance to the company’s business despite the level of expenditure at some OEM’s.

* OEM’s are process management and marketing organizations with a large dash of combustion engine engineering. To the extent engineers have the reins (and it can be a large extent depending on the OEM), they are mechanical engineers. Creating compelling EV’s requires overthrowing the existing engineering power structure in favor of electrical engineers and software developers. That is hard and probably not doable anywhere.

Thanks, great to hear you like it. Those above are good points that confirm my thinking.

Interesting that you worked in the Auto industry. May I ask what company(ies) you worked for?

P.S. next article is almost finished. Looks like since I resigned I turned into a workaholic

 

[bhtooefr]

Hey, anyone else received emails direct from Tesla encouraging us to purchase a car? Received 2 in the last few days, don't remember getting any in the past. Cheap advertising, but advertising nonetheless?

Yep.

It's not conventional advertising, but it does count. (It's a highly directed campaign (being to people who have already expressed interest in Tesla in some way), and it's e-mail, so it's incredibly cheap.)

 

[CHGolferJim]

More details on Tesla vans:

1) Elon hinted about van development in November 2018.

2) Conservative assumptions suggest $9B annually in potential van sales, according to Steven.

3) Vans are the last major vehicle market for Tesla to target, and much larger than the pickup truck market, according to another observer.

Here comes my Tesla Van/Camper for LPGA tour vagabonding in a few years.

 

[HG Wells]

Here comes my Tesla Van/Camper for LPGA tour vagabonding in a few years.

LPGA Low Profile Gate Arrays ?

 

[MC3OZ]

Tweets about what we can possibly expect for battery day:-
https://twitter.com/jpr007/status/1269761236708634626

https://twitter.com/jpr007/status/1269761227615395840

These are possibly unofficial leaks of some sort, hard to know how accurate they are.

But the part about the new battery going into Model Y first makes sense to me... Plaid drive is possibly delayed, and I'm not sure what is happening with the Semi..

Anyway, treat it as speculation...

 

[Bobfitz1]

Yep, I got a couple myself as well. They're working extra in order to ensure the quality of the posts here.

Funny, with all that extra moderation effort, I find the quality of the posts at TMC has declined since Karen Rei and Fact Checking departed.

 

[MC3OZ]

While I'm on speculation/leaks via twitter...

This is the source of leaked Model Y production info which may or may not be right...

https://twitter.com/BillWri90307793/status/1268440072476483587

Planning calls for 500 MY/day off GA4, hence expedited delivery time line. Not there yet. Also, BIW doesn’t come off of GA5...BIW capacity was recently increased. Why turn on the high speed line that may not be quite ready yet, if you don’t have the resources to supply it?

 

[MP3Mike]

It's not conventional advertising, but it does count. (It's a highly directed campaign (being to people who have already expressed interest in Tesla in some way), and it's e-mail, so it's incredibly cheap.)

That is not advertising, that is marketing. The main difference is that advertising almost always require paying a third party company to display a public message.

 

[FrankSG]

There is a new company to follow in the electric vehicle space. I read through some stuff, could not justify owning. Then came across this video:

That guy also has over 2 hours content building out models on tesla, not very bullish, seems quite educated. Short version: too expensive, buy and hold if you think it will change the world. This is part two of the model.

Any care to comment on the models? Frank sg?

He's forecasting 5% growth this year, and 20% growth for the next few years, then dropping down to 10%.

He is forecasting $44B in revenue for all of 2023, I think Tesla could do $11B+ in Q4 of this year.

For his forecasts to be right, Shanghai phase 2, Berlin, Cybertruck, and other new factories and products would have to be delayed until 2024 and beyond.

 

[FrankSG]

Buy puts on NKLA?

I took a look at them, but even if NKLA goes bankrupt, the Jan'22 farthest OTM puts would only double your money. Better stick to being long TSLA at the moment.

NKLA Jan'22 $7.50 PUTs Midpoint is $3.45, although the Bid and Ask are at $2.50 and $4.40.

 

[Artful Dodger]

But the part about the new battery going into Model Y first makes sense to me

The tweets that you linked mention nothing about the Model Y, only Semi and Megapack.

Is this your speculations, or do you have another link specifically mentioning Model Y?