Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[sdtslafan]

Maybe I've not been paying attention, but why is the wait time 8-12 weeks for Model 3 in California?

Edit: I guess its because they will be making orders for Europe in the beginning of Q3, but still seems long to me.

 

[StealthP3D]

Difference is that hate is not allowed to vent in public forums because it contradicts the government narrative.

Aren't repressive dictatorships great? Just ask the people of Hong Kong or Xinjiang.

You don't have to go all the way to Asia to find confirmation that repressive dictatorships are not great.

Just ask any of the 13 "best people" that Trump hired and then later fired.

 

[StealthP3D]

Maybe I've not been paying attention, but why is the wait time 8-12 weeks for Model 3 in California?

Edit: I guess its because they will be making orders for Europe in the beginning of Q3, but still seems long to me.

Because it's only a week until the end of the 2nd qtr. (rubs my hands together) and all the current production is spoken for. And the first few weeks production of qtr. 3 will be loaded on ships to replenish depleted inventories overseas.

 

[Mo City]

Maybe I've not been paying attention, but why is the wait time 8-12 weeks for Model 3 in California?

Edit: I guess its because they will be making orders for Europe in the beginning of Q3, but still seems long to me.

On the bright side, starting sometime next year, missing the quarterly "cutoff" won't be such a big issue.

EDIT: When will Giga Berlin begin producing Model 3s?

 

[EinSV]

Because it's only a week until the end of the 2nd qtr. (rubs my hands together) and all the current production is spoken for. And the first few weeks production of qtr. 3 will be loaded on ships to replenish depleted inventories overseas.

European demand for Model 3 should be particularly strong in Q3, especially with generous new incentive packages in key countries.

 

[mejojo]

Maybe I've not been paying attention, but why is the wait time 8-12 weeks for Model 3 in California?

Edit: I guess its because they will be making orders for Europe in the beginning of Q3, but still seems long to me.

8-12 weeks for Model S also.

 

[StealthP3D]

Estimate I saw a day or two ago was the Kato road facility could produce enough batteries for....about 13,000 cars a year for going into 3 or Y, only about 8500 for S or X.

Which is, MAYBE enough for say Plaid S buyers, assuming take rate is like 20-25ish percent on Plaid and total sales don't jump a lot?


So that could certainly be how they announce "Hey, Plaid S on sale TODAY" at battery day... but it's not exactly evidence the whole line of all models is getting magic batteries today. Or tomorrow. Or anytime until they roll this process out to a "real" production plant.


Oh- source on the 8500/13k thing? Same guy from that tweet- it's mentioned here:

Tesla Might Scale-Up Battery Cell Production Line Close To Fremont Factory

With 425 full-time employees (with full benefits) they had better be producing batteries for more than 13,000 measly cars a year!

So I checked the source you provided and see that it is deeply flawed. It's based upon the requested amount of additional electrical capacity for the site (6 MW) and a study estimating the amount of energy consumed, not electricity consumed, to produce lithium ion batteries. The biggest problem is that most of the energy used to manufacture current generation cells is natural gas. That is the cheapest way to power the huge drying ovens required to evaporate the solvents. And a large amount of electricity is used in addition to that to collect the solvents from the heated air. So a lot of non-electrical and electrical energy is required for the drying process.

The problems with the estimate:

1) 6 MW is only the amount of additional electrical capacity requested. It does not speak to how much electrical capacity the site already has.
2) The estimate completely ignores the natural gas component of energy consumption which is likely, by far, the biggest expenditure of battery production. It is a given the Kato Rd. site has natural gas yet this was not included in the battery volume calculation.
3) The new generation of batteries will be much less energy intensive to manufacture, especially if they use the solvent free process.

In short, the estimate of only enough batteries for 13,000 cars a year is laughably understated! The true volume will probably blow your mind!

 

[vikings123]

Because it's only a week until the end of the 2nd qtr. (rubs my hands together) and all the current production is spoken for. And the first few weeks production of qtr. 3 will be loaded on ships to replenish depleted inventories overseas.

I agree with you that they likely have orders to match all production left for this quarter. What is different this time around is the 8-12 week estimate is for most of the US not just California. This can mean two things:

1. The order book for Europe/RoW is so strong that the first 2 months of M3 production is already accounted for.
2. They are repurposing the M3 production line to produce more Model Ys.

It is also very bullish for Q2 deliveries, I mean at this point 90K-95K is achievable.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Do they really need to put up with that crap?

Did Frodo need to go to Mordor? There are larger forces at play in this.

Cheers!

 

[Artful Dodger]

Estimate I saw a day or two ago was the Kato road facility could produce enough batteries for....about 13,000 cars a year for going into 3 or Y, only about 8500 for S or X.

That estimate is based on consumption of 65 KWh of grid electricity for each 1 KWh of battery packs produced. This is wildly speculative, and should be ground truthed against GF1/Sparks power consumption before being accepted as applicable.

A second way to estimate pack output would be per 'employee-hour' of labor. GF1 has approx 2K Panasonic employees and produces 35GWh of cells per year. Telsa Kato Road will have 400 employees, or about 20% of GF1.

If Tesla were to achieve ZERO IMPROVEMENT in labor productivity with their new bty lines, we'd be forced to expect 7 GWh of cells per year, or enough for about 56,000 bty packs at 125KWh each.

Do you really think Tesla will ONLY match Panasonic's productivity? Hah, no!

There's gonna be enough packs produced at Kato Rd for all ~80K Model S/X per year, eventually ALL with new roadrunner packs. It's just an issue of the ramp timing: Plaid 1st.

As it should be for the Flagship of the Fleet, and the Faberge Egg of SUVs.

Cheers!

 

[Artful Dodger]

You really think demand for a Plaid Model S, wide body setup for racing, is going to be significantly higher than 8,500/year? (It will likely cost between $125-175k.)

No, demand will be 40-50K/yr for a 500 mi rge Model S with a larger rear facing seating area due to its tri-motor design. Add in another ~50K Model X for a total of 80-100K/yr S/X.

 

[Artful Dodger]

EDIT: When will Giga Berlin begin producing Model 3s?

2022, when Phase 2 is complete. Next year, the Phase 1 project will start production of Model Y.

 

[ggr]

With 425 full-time employees (with full benefits) they had better be producing batteries for more than 13,000 measly cars a year!

So I checked the source you provided and see that it is deeply flawed. It's based upon the requested amount of additional electrical capacity for the site (6 MW) and a study estimating the amount of energy consumed, not electricity consumed, to produce lithium ion batteries. The biggest problem is that most of the energy used to manufacture current generation cells is natural gas. That is the cheapest way to power the huge drying ovens required to evaporate the solvents. And a large amount of electricity is used in addition to that to collect the solvents from the heated air. So a lot of non-electrical and electrical energy is required for the drying process.

The problems with the estimate:

1) 6 MW is only the amount of additional electrical capacity requested. It does not speak to how much electrical capacity the site already has.
2) The estimate completely ignores the natural gas component of energy consumption which is likely, by far, the biggest expenditure of battery production. It is a given the Kato Rd. site has natural gas yet this was not included in the battery volume calculation.
3) The new generation of batteries will be much less energy intensive to manufacture, especially if they use the solvent free process.

In short, the estimate of only enough batteries for 13,000 cars a year is laughably understated! The true volume will probably blow your mind!

The point of the new Maxwell technology is that it doesn't use solvents, and therefore doesn't need drying.

 

[StealthP3D]

The point of the new Maxwell technology is that it doesn't use solvents, and therefore doesn't need drying.

Yes, the lifecycle carbon footprint of EV's continues to decline. Don't let any of those EV haters try to convince you an EV is not more environmental than a fume-belching gas car!

 

[RobStark]

You don't have to go all the way to Asia to find confirmation that repressive dictatorships are not great.

Just ask any of the 13 "best people" that Trump hired and then later fired.

Your more equivalency is so kitchy.

Trump,head of the US Government, fires US Government officials.

Xi sends ~1M muslims to concentrations camps and ends democracy in Hong Kong against commitments China made in the treaty with the UK to regain sovereignty over Hong Kong.

Same thing.

 

[MikeAtkinson]

https://twitter.com/jpr007/status/1275360002132172800

While this is a twitter source they are referencing a Fremont local government document..

It is anticipated that the Project will generate up to 38 trucks delivering materials to the site and shipping manufactured batteries each day.

From this it should be possible to estimate cell production volume, if I have done the sums correctly, enough for about 1000 batteries a day.

The center portion of the first floor is currently unoccupied. The second floor of the building has a smaller floor area of 50,821 square feet, primarily occupied by offices that ring the exterior edges of the building. An approximately 46,155 square-foot portion of second floor is open from the ground floor to the second floor roof. To accommodate new battery manufacturing equipment and R&D space (known as ROADRUNNER), the Project proposes to construct an additional floor area of approximately 21,485 square feet at the second floor (covering a portion of the central space that is open to the second floor roof – see Figure 4) and to add an additional, smaller approximately 8,260 square-foot third floor above (see Figure 5).

1055 Page Building The second existing building towards the rear on the site is the 72,285 square foot Page building, which has a first floor area of 58,568 square feet and a mechanical penthouse of 13,717 square feet. No major modifications to the structure of this building are proposed, but existing available space within the southerly and northwesterly portion of this building will be used to accommodate Tesla’s additional ROADRUNNER-supporting manufacturing and R&D

So it looks like a total of 50,821 + 21,485 + 8,260 + 58,568 + 13,717 = ~ 150,000 square foot of production area for the cell manufacturing line.

 

[MC3OZ]

From this it should be possible to estimate cell production volume, if I have done the sums correctly, enough for about 1000 batteries a day.

I assume you mean 1000 battery packs per day...

We assume Roadrunner is a Maxwell process which we know takes less energy, less floor space and we assume fewer workers than more conventional cell making..

It is hard for us to guess the numbers, but they should be "mind blowing", 1000 packs per day from a facility of that size built in 3-6 months is "mind blowing".

 

[Causalien]

OT but hey.

I have been nagging a longtime friend to buy a Tesla for years, all the way back to 2013 when I got my first S. And he's very frugal and bought used cars in the interim, never indulged in any fancy stuff, but I started noticing a chink in the armor in 2019 and kept at it, offering my referral code, really working on winning him over.

Today he forwards me an email and the subject line is


He ordered a Model Y. Last week he was set on a 3, and then yesterday he emailed asking, "For eight thousand more I could buy a Model Y. Maybe I should get the Y?" and of course I did not discourage him from moving in that direction.

His explanation for buying a Tesla in 2020? After me pestering him for YEARS to get one?
"There's no sense in buying a gasoline vehicle any more."

This is an historic day. He is not an early adopter. This bodes very well for Tesla.

I don't get to interact with the younger generation much.(20 year olds) But recently started going to a few sporty events that different age group participates in.

The change in my status into one of the coolest dude in the group upon learning that I drive a Tesla was immediate.

The future is already set in stone. The fight, the hate and the resistence in the present are just the old guards holding on for dear life.

I had felt and thought that we were up against the world, but turns out it is because the circle of ppl I was surrounded with are filled with the old guards.

 

[MC3OZ]

I don't get to interact with the younger generation much.(20 year olds) But recently started going to a few sporty events that different age group participates in.

The change in my status into one of the coolest dude in the group upon learning that I drive a Tesla was immediate.

The future is already set in stone. The fight, the hate and the resistence in the presence are just the old guards holding on for dear life.

I had felt and thought that we were up against the world, but turns out it is because the circle of ppl I was surrounded in are filled with the old guards.

Same here with my daughter's 14 year old friends and many of their parents, most see a Tesla car as the future....

Most of the angry old men who don't like EVs will soon be too old to drive, they will be too old to walk, a Tesla Robotaxi will transport them from the nursing home to the dentist and doctor, they will never understand why there is no driver and no engine noise.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Expect news about Daimler and Nvidia later today. I may publish a breaking story at CT or similar.

This just in from our own @avoigt

"Finally, it was also not explained how Mercedes-Benz intends to develop autonomous driving software that needs data to train self-learning algorithms without having any real-life driving data yet or even a fleet of vehicles with a required set of cameras and sensors to collect such data. To be honest, the partnership announced today reveals that Mercedes-Benz is more than 10 years behind, and while their intentions may be good, I believe their timeline is not realistic and is missing critical components to attract the necessary talent to build a working solution — including building, as confirmed by Källenius, missing hardware components like sensors."​

Mercedes-Benz & Nvidia Partner On Autonomous Driving — Numerous Thoughts & Questions | CleanTechnica

Cheers!