Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Beltsbear]

Here's the 2-year chart:
View attachment 571125

The 2019 Q3 earnings call was the start because it was when Tesla "returned to GAAP profitability." (https://ir.tesla.com/static-files/47313d21-3cac-4f69-9497-d161bce15da4 )
2019 Q4 showed Tesla putting two profitable quarters in a row, plus other good news on GF China, etc.
After the Covid scare, Tesla bounced back with 2020Q1 deliveries & profit, setting up expectations.

Then 2020Q2, which I'll zoom in for:

View attachment 571116

Deliveries were higher than expected, and so a profitable quarter was expected, and so S&P 500 inclusion became expected.

Conclusion: Most of TSLA's rise above $1,000 is due to S&P 500 inclusion.

Question 1: Where do you think TSLA ends up a week after S&P inclusion?

Question 2: Where do you think TSLA will trade at should the S&P 500 committee announce that other companies are being added to the index with no mention of Tesla?

I tend to agree. I don't think Tesla is going to move much beyond $1400-$1800 for the next year personally. Some people would say just sell it and wait. But I believe in the future Tesla will go much higher. It will probably take a few years, but we never know. But someday, it will shoot up again. And I want to be holding during that time.

While FSD would make the stock fly, wall street still has not priced in Tesla energy nor the successful result of GF4 and GF5. Once both are online in late 2021, we will be nearing 2 million cars a year capacity. That is not priced in yet.

 

[Singuy]

I tend to agree. I don't think Tesla is going to move much beyond $1400-$1800 for the next year personally. Some people would say just sell it and wait. But I believe in the future Tesla will go much higher. It will probably take a few years, but we never know. But someday, it will shoot up again. And I want to be holding during that time.

While FSD would make the stock fly, wall street still has not priced in Tesla energy nor the successful result of GF4 and GF5. Once both are online in late 2021, we will be nearing 2 million cars a year capacity. That is not priced in yet.

Part of me thinks TSLA price action is out of control, beyond fundamentals and it's just some S&P option bet. The other part is having trouble placing what an actual price should be. Comparing Tesla 2021 to the 2018-2019 Tesla could be comparing two completely different companies.

2018 Tesla fumbled for a good 6 months before hitting volume production. Then they fumbled some more on delivery hell. Everything felt like pulling teeth and besides the pretty decent Q3/Q4 results of 2018, nothing else was going very right.

2021 Tesla may just blow everyone away as I see their execution has been constantly hitting beyond expectation. I have never seen execution having an exponential growth. Can you imagine if they actually managed to get Berlin and Texas GF online at the time line they said they would, or exceeding it? They just posted a 68% growth in battery deployment, what if it's 120% growth next Q? Tsla is going parabolic but same with their execution. So I don't know...besides FSD being delayed, everything else is going so right.

 

[S3XY]

As much as I like and admire Elon, I have no real desire to meet him. Because small talk is just small talk.

Now, to be stranded somewhere comfortable for a week with him, and have long conversations with him opening up and speaking freely about things that interest him, now that would be super enjoyable!

Spoiler: Off-topic ramblings about famous people

I've never been one to be star-struck by celebrities, not at all. But as a young man, about 1990, I had an experience that changed the way I thought forever. I had a month or so between jobs and was taking a late spring solo ski trip in the Rockies. One sunny crisp morning I put on my ski Gore-tex, checked out of my cheap motel early and headed a short distance to Robert Redford's ski area, Sundance. I thought it would be hoity-toity but it was really rustic, beautiful and laid back, no one was there - it was deserted, the air was amazing, lift prices seemed cheap and conditions were perfect so I was pretty happy with the warming sun promising to soften the snow and make for a silky corn snow and enjoyable experience on the huge, wide open slopes. As I walked down a wide empty hall in the day lodge at the beginning of the day, two men appeared from the opposite direction. One was bigger than life large, like a giant, happy Viking, muscular but moving with an easy fluidity, and had a huge golden beard and moustache, blue eyes that shone and twinkled with fine wrinkles radiating from the corners, the other was smaller, clean shaven and also had twinkling eyes and a slight grin on his face and moving with the same easy fluidity. They were obviously good friends and enjoying each others company without talk. They both seemed to have auras radiating out from them as if they were supremely happy and had not a care in the world. I was awestruck simply by their presence because I could tell they were exceptional people. It was not until we had all recognized each other with a slight grin/nod as you might do when you are the only people in sight and we had almost passed each other that I figured out one of them was actually Robert Redford as our eyes met directly. Yes, he actually grinned and nodded right at me! But I didn't let on and just carried on.

The point is that some people are simply more amazing than others. I was awestruck before I had any clue one of them was Redford and, to tell you the truth, the other guy was at least as amazing although I never did figure out who he was. I think he might have been on ski patrol. But, yeah, I didn't want to bother them or talk with them - I had nothing to say.

 

[Sofie]

wow wish i had the guts to lay down a $437,850 dollar bet at 30 years old ... that takes some serious mental toughness

well, I just kind of think of my brokerage account as my savings account. Everyone more concerned for me than I am, makes me wonder if maybe I should be concerned lol. But I do have 25 shares of Apple stock left...at least, just to tell myself I’m not such a volatile investor as I am with this much TSLA lol.

 

[Sofie]

That's more than I had on the line at that age but by age 36 my account had daily fluctuations of almost that amount on a regular basis (the amount of the "bet" was much larger).

yeah, one gets used to the idea I guess. I know I won’t starve , and I still have a bed to sleep in and a warm shower. I suppose continuing college life through my 30s isn’t really something too hard for me to accept

 

[LN1_Casey]

Tesla has announced they will be expanding into Greece with a showroom and service centre in Athens coming soon, and Superchargers by the end of the year

Η Tesla στην Ελλάδα με κατάστημα, κέντρο σέρβις και δίκτυο superchargers

Oh, of course they’re finally building a Tesla gallery when I’m leaving Greece in October.

But it’s good to know that Tesla is creeping into this section of the EU. For a while there, it was a blank slate from Italy over.

 

[Sofie]

Part of me thinks TSLA price action is out of control, beyond fundamentals and it's just some S&P option bet. The other part is having trouble placing what an actual price should be. Comparing Tesla 2021 to the 2018-2019 Tesla could be comparing two completely different companies.

2018 Tesla fumbled for a good 6 months before hitting volume production. Then they fumbled some more on delivery hell. Everything felt like pulling teeth and besides the pretty decent Q3/Q4 results of 2018, nothing else was going very right.

2021 Tesla may just blow everyone away as I see their execution has been constantly hitting beyond expectation. I have never seen execution having an exponential growth. Can you imagine if they actually managed to get Berlin and Texas GF online at the time line they said they would, or exceeding it? They just posted a 68% growth in battery deployment, what if it's 120% growth next Q? Tsla is going parabolic but same with their execution. So I don't know...besides FSD being delayed, everything else is going so right.

What do we think about Elon increasing share float through dilution for the S&P inclusion? I know this is a potential case that may have to occur for everything to work out, unless there is another way around it.

 

[Bet TSLA]

wow wish i had the guts to lay down a $437,850 dollar bet at 30 years old ... that takes some serious mental toughness

Buying out of the money calls is a bet; buying shares is a fairly sober investment. I own mostly options, but I keep 1000 shares around just to keep me honest.

 

[ZeApelido]

Tesla has announced they will be expanding into Greece with a showroom and service centre in Athens coming soon, and Superchargers by the end of the year

Η Tesla στην Ελλάδα με κατάστημα, κέντρο σέρβις και δίκτυο superchargers

Will Greeks get the Germans to pay for their Teslas too?


ducks

 

[UCF3]

What do we think about Elon increasing share float through dilution for the S&P inclusion? I know this is a potential case that may have to occur for everything to work out, unless there is another way around it.

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019-2020 Investors' Roundtable
start there and then read forward several pages. Was discussed heavily about a week ago

 

[Sofie]

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019-2020 Investors' Roundtable
start there and then read forward several pages. Was discussed heavily about a week ago

Thank you!!!!!

 

[ZeApelido]

Trump says he will ban TikTok - CNN

Might affect macros.

Trump probably thinks if he bans Tik-Tok he will halt time and the impending end of his Presidency

 

[abasile]

Easier said then done, If you constantly employ this strategy you will loose your share, you will regret it if your intention to hold is long term, Tesla stock was considered too high beyond 420 not long ago, then again nothing wrong doing it on partial position.

I don't always sell covered calls, and when I do, it's against a partial position. Recently, I did get burned selling a Sep. 2020 $1885 call, before the run-up from ~ $1000 to ~ $1500, and later buying it back at a higher price. In retrospect, I should have just waited longer to buy it back, but who knew? At least it was overshadowed by profits on sold puts. These days, for me to sell covered calls, I have to see attractive premiums on $3500 strikes, as there seems to be a real possibility of TSLA running up close to $3000. If we hit $3500/share in the coming months, I can't say I'd be against selling some fraction of our shares.

 

[dl003]

I don't always sell covered calls, and when I do, it's against a partial position. Recently, I did get burned selling a Sep. 2020 $1885 call, before the run-up from ~ $1000 to ~ $1500, and later buying it back at a higher price. In retrospect, I should have just waited longer to buy it back, but who knew? At least it was overshadowed by profits on sold puts. These days, for me to sell covered calls, I have to see attractive premiums on $3500 strikes, as there seems to be a real possibility of TSLA running up close to $3000. If we hit $3500/share in the coming months, I can't say I'd be against selling some fraction of our shares.

Talks like this are welcomed for the weekend. If you think Tesla has run up too much, please keep it to yourself. Im very comfortable in my bubble thank you very much.

 

[StealthP3D]

I tend to agree. I don't think Tesla is going to move much beyond $1400-$1800 for the next year personally. Some people would say just sell it and wait. But I believe in the future Tesla will go much higher. It will probably take a few years, but we never know. But someday, it will shoot up again. And I want to be holding during that time.

While FSD would make the stock fly, wall street still has not priced in Tesla energy nor the successful result of GF4 and GF5. Once both are online in late 2021, we will be nearing 2 million cars a year capacity. That is not priced in yet.

I would caution against thinking you can tell when something will be priced in. It has to do with the likelihood and also the time value of money. It's literally impossible to know how either of these two things will look come the end of the year with any certainty. Thus selling now can protect you from things going much less well than expected but cause real pain if things go better than expected. I think any confidence that it won't go much higher than $1400-$1800 this year to be misplaced confidence.

We have recently learned that Panasonic will be passing on the savings of cheaper batteries to Tesla starting around September. That's potentially soon enough to provide margin upside surprises in Q3 (on top of volume efficiencies Tesla is able to realize on their own). I actually think the efficiencies Tesla realizes on their own will make those provided by Panasonic look small. If Q3 is stronger than expected and production and deliveries going into the end of Q4 look strong, we could easily see prices a lot higher than $1800 before the year is out.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I would caution against thinking you can tell when something will be priced in. It has to do with the likelihood and also the time value of money. It's literally impossible to know how either of these two things will look come the end of the year with any certainty. Thus selling now can protect you from things going much less well than expected but cause real pain if things go better than expected. I think any confidence that it won't go much higher than $1400-$1800 this year to be misplaced confidence.

We have recently learned that Panasonic will be passing on the savings of cheaper batteries to Tesla starting around September. That's potentially soon enough to provide margin upside surprises in Q3 (on top of volume efficiencies Tesla is able to realize on their own). I actually think the efficiencies Tesla realizes on their own will make those provided by Panasonic look small. If Q3 is stronger than expected and production and deliveries going into the end of Q4 look strong, we could easily see prices a lot higher than $1800 before the year is out.

Seriously, no investor should have a mindset of a "predetermined set limit for the value of a company". I mean sure you could have a very short window mindset of that for 1 quarter.....but each earnings day gives a fundamentally new valuation on the company.......especially companies that are growing and disrupting. Many investors have set arbitrary limits to what they think the company could be valued at and end up making investing decisions that will haunt them for years.

Practically no analysts on Wall St are estimating as high of deliveries, margins, or profits as the well informed investors on this board and on twitter. They're not even predicting numbers in the same ballpark as people here, including myself. That should tell you something

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Fun Fact: I know a lot of Amazon and some Microsoft employees including some that have been there for 10+ years. If they had held on to their shares, they would be millionaires....as in above 10+million net worth. They sold their shares every year or every other year not because they didn't believe in their company......but because they bought into the Wall St crap of the stock has gone up 100% this year, it's going to go back down or "this is good as it'll get". Some of them thought they could time it and sell and back buy at a lower price. I still to this day give them a hard time for continuing to sell their shares in the 300's, 400's, 500's, etc....

I'm not perfect btw. It still pains me that I got impatient with OLED and sold in the high 30's after a 50% return upon which the stock then shot up to 150. Ah my younger investing self

 

[SOULPEDL]

What if Roadrunner is a blurr process? And that circular row of batteries video was our teaser... at 1/10th speed?
i haven't heard Elon talk about the blurr factory since pre Model 3. I've seen chip shooters and fast machines, and Neuralink runs at 1,000 insertions per minute. Sudden need for nickel... I say its a Production Capacity explosion coming soon.

I think thats what folks forget. Tesla talent pool is getting huge! Innovation is a process. Thats why we will see $2,500 SP in short order. Battery Day.

 

[tinm]

Tesla maintained demand through pandemic because of online ordering, Musk says

“We make the buying experience very easy. You can buy a Tesla in just two minutes by going to our website. Go onto our website. You can literally order a Tesla in two minutes, maybe one minute if you’re really fast,” Musk added. “I guess people are less inclined to want to go to a dealership, do the test drive, and hang out in the lobby and that kind of thing.”

Buying a car in a dealership sucks. When we were buying ICE cars, we used an auto broker to avoid it. Tesla's way is the best.

Only, this is not accurate. You can configure a car, place an order for a car, and plunk down money for the reservation fee, sure, maybe in 2 minutes.

Then Tesla’s website has a whole set of forms you go through, especially if you’re trading in a car. Then you run into a situation where you have a question. So you email or call the Tesla rep. Assuming you don’t get an immediate reply, you wait. Then you wait some more. Then there’s delivery. Inevitable new questions arise. From either party. On it goes.

I just traded in an old S for a new S and I must have spent 10 total hours over the course of a week in email or on the phone getting the transaction done. Since delivery I’ve already had one service visit requiring a follow-up with warranty replacement parts. Love the car, but there’s always a surprise.

Elon lives in a perfect world.

 

[kanweg]

Tesla has announced they will be expanding into Greece with a showroom and service centre in Athens coming soon, and Superchargers by the end of the year

Η Tesla στην Ελλάδα με κατάστημα, κέντρο σέρβις και δίκτυο superchargers

Hm that reminds me that when I became an investor that I read somewhere that I had to learn my Greeks. I didn’t know what they meant, but this must be it.