Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[humbaba]

are you sure it hit it?
i'm closely looking and nothing i see more than -8% or so, not -10%

MarketWatch showed -10.00% briefly. Reviewing history the lowest is -9.91% at ~9:41

 

[tivoboy]

w

The joke is that the post originated in English, but Nursebee (not understand what was implied by the OP) asked for a translation (without specifying a target language)

;-).. I missed that part while THE SITE WAS DOWN!!!....

I think TMC site availability could be one of my ancillary TSAL stock price indicators going forward. It all goes into the mix.

 

[KarenRei]

MarketWatch showed -10.00% briefly. Reviewing history the lowest is -9.91% at ~9:41

Previous Close 332.80
Day's Range 298.80 - 312.86

332,80 / 298,80 = 1,11378.... ~= 11,4% drop. Or am I doing this wrong?

 

[printf42]

Can this be translated?

Joking aside:

This is the original webpage of the GF3 construction license:
项目信息

Not much new information here:

• License applied on Dec.06, issued on Dec.28 and Dec.29 for the 2 phases.
• Contract value 191M RMB, project title is for factory, interestingly both 2 phases so far are for "Parking lot structure".
• Construction area listed as 87577 sqr meter, only small part of the 1.7M sqr meter total designated for the lot.
• So, this seems to be first part of the project.

You can use Google translate to get a glance if you are interested in other bits.

 

[humbaba]

Well I guess we both do not have data to support that statement. So its like, you say I say...

However I have seen man discussions in social media from people who could not get the tax credit dues to their personal income situation thats a confirmation that people are out there and for those the $2k reduction is now worth a full $2k.

Thats a lot of money for many. So dependent how large this group is for them its a true 2k full TCO reduction for other with higher income able to use the still available(Jan 1st ) tax credit fully its of course different.

... yeah, I'm one of those that can't get any tax break from buying an EV and now I'm kicking myself for not waiting for the new year. I knew that a price reduction was a possibility, and I should've seen it coming and I should've delayed.

 

[lascavarian]

Teslacomingup on CNBC at about 11:55.

 

[Joe F]

Bull bear debate up next on CNBC. Odds are the bear will be full of bull.

CNBC saved the "debate" till the end of the hour. Up next.

 

[reddit_tl]

Again ... These numbers are pretty good and right in line (in fact slightly above) the consensus expectation here just a couple days ago. the vast majority of us were predicting numbers in a range of 53k to 63k Model 3s. Seemed like the consensus here was anything over 60k would be a "beat". My slightly optimistic prediction two days ago was 59,218.

How on Earth is 63,150 somehow a big red flag? It's slightly higher than most people were guessing, virtually guarantees profitability, and sets a new record for the company. I don't see the downside.

yeah, WS said their estimate was higher. Yet, their price targets didn't match. The logic is not driving the SP. Glad I had opportunity to load up some calls.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

The stock price is tanking because there are roughly 7000 Model 3s in inventory that Tesla can't sell.

The difference between Model 3s produced and Model 3s delivered is just over 8000, but only 1000 were "in transit."

That means Tesla has 7000 Model 3s in inventory that they haven't been able to sell. That goes against the Model of "every car produced already has a buyer."

Furthermore, Tesla hasn't given any guidance on what to expect for 2019.

If demand does decline in the US and Tesla can't get EU homologation, the negative working capital becomes a huge problem.

MODERATOR EDIT:
The material shown in this post is demonstrably false and, given as it coming from a newly-created poster, very badly suggests mischief.
For an accurate assessment of the numbers, please refer to this post: Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019 Investors' Roundtable

@ggr is this you?

What is demonstrably false here? Yeah, last sentence (and some wording) is inflammatory, but there is insight to first part of the post that no one has mentioned before. Numbers are useful. We won't be better investors and safer by closing our eyes to dangers. Or am I wrong and this is a 'feel good, come for emotional support' forum, rather than 'investors' forum?

I think Q4 numbers are excellent and I think ER will blow it out of the park, but that doesn't mean that MARKET currently doesn't interpret numbers exactly as OP suggests.

Not that it matters much, but I'd prefer you take more mellow tone and be a bit less of a judge/jury/executioner.

 

[tsunamiofhurt]

For production numbers the VIN allocations method worked pretty well in Q4, with 97.7% accuracy:



Just saying.

Here's the updated table:

Model 3 VIN allocation ratios:

 Quarter  Maximum VIN    VIN increase  Production           VIN-to-Production-Ratio
 ==================================================================================
 2018/Q1       20,581         +15,787       9,766                            61.86%
 2018/Q2       53,800         +33,219      28,578                            86.02%
 2018/Q3      116,270         +62,470      53,239                            85.22%
 ==================================================================================
 2018/Q4     ~189,964         +73,694      62,804 (est.)                     85.22% (est.)
 2018/Q4      189,964         +73,694      61,394 (real)                     83.33% (real)

BTW., note that the ratio of VINs allocated to VINs used for production is 1.2003 (!). I.e. there were 20.03% more VINs allocated than Model 3's produced in Q4. Using that 20% as an approximation for Q1'19 might work.

Paging @tsunamiofhurt as well whose model took 'VIN holes' into account as well.

Damn, FC ... beating me at estimating production using my own data! That's cold. Ratio has actually been remarkably consistent. I suspected ratio may drop to ~80% due to the gaps, but it's only down to 83.33%.

In terms of deliveries, my estimate (primarily based on the excellent Alphahat data) was quite close (62,500 est. vs. 63,150 real).

 

[reddit_tl]

S&X deliveries are down~2k units in 2018 vs 2017.

China, probably. Their numbers are limited by batteries anyway. right?

 

[hacer]

Sorry - I already took your glory. Hope you don't mind...
That will learn you. Next time, make your predictions private like the analysts...

Speaking of glory, while I got the mix totally wrong, I predicted Q4 total vehicle deliveries 90,008 vs 90,700 (99.2% accurate) and Q4 total production of 86,312 vs 86,555 (99.7% accuracy). Pretty good for the methodology used I'd say.TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

Sure it's not repeatable (probably) like @Fact Checking 's VIN allocation method might be for production

 

[lascavarian]

RBC cutting price target says Phil L on CNBC

 

[avoigt]

... yeah, I'm one of those that can't get any tax break from buying an EV and now I'm kicking myself for not waiting for the new year. I knew that a price reduction was a possibility, and I should've seen it coming and I should've delayed.

Talk to Tesla and send a tweet to Elon. Usually they are helpful in these situation. Its all about getting attention from the right people and they may allow you to step back and order again.

 

[bhtooefr]

If similar jump then likely Model 3 didnt over take the Camry. Still wow the Camry took a hit November 2018 compared to previous year.

Worth noting that Toyota was informally guiding that they expected Camry sales to fall and be replaced with RAV4 sales, when the current generation was being launched, and that appears to be essentially what happened in November (the RAV4 selling what the Camry did in November 2017), although there are about 3800 missing sales (which could be partially explained by the Model 3)

(Basically, they made it lower and sportier, and expected that they would scare off some of their existing buyers, but believed that the RAV4 was going to cannibalize the Camry anyway, so that may get a new buyer. I don't think they were really ready for the Model 3 effect.)

 

[Artful Dodger]

are you sure it hit it?
i'm closely looking and nothing i see more than -8% or so, not -10%

Yes, today's daily low was = 10.237% below Monday's close:

(298.8-332.88)/332.88

 

[winfield100]

Apologies if already posted. Also, probably uninteresting to you who are well versed in AI. A good layperson's summary of development and investment implications.

Tesla: The Autonomy Thesis - Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha

interesting, but it has comments that are like 4 of the 7 signs of Gall Bladder disease
FFFFwFFF

 

[viridi]

CNBC just reported that RBC downgraded Tesla and cut its price target from $340 to $290. These analysts are truly worthless. They tend to be wrong more than they are correct, yet what they say has an undue influence on a company’s stock price. CNBC is repeating over-and-over the Tesla missed narrative. This has not been helped by bulls like Munster coming on CNBC today also saying Tesla missed. Missed what? It seems that Tesla was inline with its production estimates. They did not miss. What they missed is some fishy projections on production and delivery that simply could not have been honest based on some of the stock price projections of many of those making these inflated estimates. Again, something does not smell right here.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Seems like a solid quarter about to be announced from my seat. However getting Tesla’s performance to positively impact TSLA performance is a bit like the Terminator, a remorseless and relentless grind against its adversaries.

The 2019 narrative is already too easy to predict and it’s at this stage almost all about sustainability of demand. Q3 18 was a fluke based upon backlog. Q4 demand was artificially high due to pending US tax credit cut. Q1 and Q2 19 will be non repeatable once Rest of World backlog is cleared and USA credit falls again in July. Q3 and Q4 19 is only because of SR backlog. Arnold had to terminate a lot of Sarah Connors from the phone book until there was but one left...

All the while Tesla the company will be building oodles of cashflow for delevaging and new product capex. At some point (likely in 2020?) the world will wake up and notice the number of Tesla’s driving around, see the rapidly maturing product pipleline and finally the vastly improved balance sheet structure. Not much for TSLA investors to do until then but sit tight and top up holdings at nice entry points subject to sensible personal concentration risk levels.

Q1 and Q2 2020 will be backlog of Model Y reservations in the US; Q3 and Q4 2020 will be backlog of Model Y reservations worldwide, etc., etc.

To your final sentence, I would add: and sell weekly covered calls to harvest premium, lower average cost of entry, and at least see some return on investment while waiting for the next big leg up.

 

[anthonyj]

CNBC just reported that RBC downgraded Tesla and cut its price target from $340 to $290. These analysts are truly worthless. They tend to be wrong more than they are correct, yet what they say has an undue influence on a company’s stock price. CNBC is repeating over-and-over the Tesla missed narrative. This has not been helped by bulls like Munster coming on CNBC today also saying Tesla missed. Missed what? It seems that Tesla was inline with its production estimates. They did not miss. What they missed is some fishy projections on production and delivery that simply could not have been honest based on some of the stock price projections of many of those making these inflated estimates. Again, something does not smell right here.

Not to sound rude, but people need to unsderstand that this stock is extremely easy to manipulate. They just want your cheap shares before Q4 ER. It’s so obvious.