Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[hacer]

No evidence of naked short selling. That’s a myth

Naked short selling is actually legal for certain entities Key Points About Regulation SHO. It definitely happens (both legally and illegally) but it's usually temporary. Presently there is no hard evidence of it being a persistent problem for TSLA. It will be curious to see what the December failure-to-deliver report will look like since the November reports where peculiar.

 

[neroden]

Jesus, 24 pages already? I'm not catching up this time.

I'm very sick so I may disappear if I go into the hospital. But anyway...

...I thought the delivery report was great. It was on the high side of my expectations.

The price cut was a mild surprise, but to me it indicates improving margins. I'm guessing those improving margins are mostly on elements present in the base model, so that's $2000 of the $3000 they were trying to cut out of the cost of the base model -- the rest will probably come with the new battery pack design.

Wall street is reacting like complete idiots, as if this extremely good delivery report was a negative. I will probably do some cash shufflin' to make sure I can execute my options.

 

[anthonyj]

You are wrong. "Market makers" and others with "sponsored access" can short without borrowing. If you were right and someone actually did naked-short, give me an example of what the evidence would be that they did?

How do you think HFT exists? Do you think that a high-trequency trader is going to locate and borrow stock for a short-sale in a millisecond???

Ihor Dusaniwsky on Twitter

 

[MXWing]

What am I missing?

Q3 is was a blowout and profitable quarter based on the number of cars produced and delivered.

Q4 had more cars produced and delivered. It's a safe assumption that the cost to produce/deliver each car has gone down quarter over quarter?

 

[hacer]

Not repeatable? Who's to say you won't have another dream for next quarter's numbers?!

I said probably not repeatable.

 

[goinfraftw]

...I'm not sure how a company, at the center of a global problem such as climate change, goes from 100k -> ~250k cars delivered y-o-y (i.e. 250% improvement) and it's market price goes down ~3% y-o-y.

I'm heartbroken. Not even sure who to be disappointed in.

 

[wipster]

Jesus, 24 pages already? I'm not catching up this time.

I'm very sick so I may disappear if I go into the hospital. But anyway...

...I thought the delivery report was great. It was on the high side of my expectations.

The price cut was a mild surprise, but to me it indicates improving margins. I'm guessing those improving margins are mostly on elements present in the base model, so that's $2000 of the $3000 they were trying to cut out of the cost of the base model -- the rest will probably come with the new battery pack design.

Wall street is reacting like complete idiots, as if this extremely good delivery report was a negative. I will probably do some cash shufflin' to make sure I can execute my options.

Dude, hope you are getting better and no hospital visits are required! That's a heck of a bad way to start the year...

 

[Opus BC fan]

Jesus, 24 pages already? I'm not catching up this time.

I'm very sick so I may disappear if I go into the hospital. But anyway...

...I thought the delivery report was great. It was on the high side of my expectations.

The price cut was a mild surprise, but to me it indicates improving margins. I'm guessing those improving margins are mostly on elements present in the base model, so that's $2000 of the $3000 they were trying to cut out of the cost of the base model -- the rest will probably come with the new battery pack design.

Wall street is reacting like complete idiots, as if this extremely good delivery report was a negative. I will probably do some cash shufflin' to make sure I can execute my options.

Take care of yourself first and foremost.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Dude, hope you are getting better and no hospital visits are required! That's a heck of a bad way to start the year...

Agreed. Get well soon, @neroden.

I said probably not repeatable.

Touché.

 

[anthonyj]

What am I missing?

Q3 is was a blowout and profitable quarter based on the number of cars produced and delivered.

Q4 had more cars produced and delivered. It's a safe assumption that the cost to produce/deliver each car has gone down quarter over quarter?

It’s a swing trade stock unfortunately

 

[M3Rider]

No evidence of naked short selling. That’s a myth

 

[MartinAustin]

Nobody ever reviews Wall Street estimates.

We never see headlines like

Wall Street Estimates Missed Actual Reality By 10%

 

[SteveG3]

What am I missing?

Q3 is was a blowout and profitable quarter based on the number of cars produced and delivered.

Q4 had more cars produced and delivered. It's a safe assumption that the cost to produce/deliver each car has gone down quarter over quarter?

sounds like you may be taking market participants and commentators at face value. if you haven’t watched that Cramer video linked a few pages back, highly recommend it... just 10 minutes long.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Jesus, 24 pages already? I'm not catching up this time.

I'm very sick so I may disappear if I go into the hospital. But anyway...

...I thought the delivery report was great. It was on the high side of my expectations.

The price cut was a mild surprise, but to me it indicates improving margins. I'm guessing those improving margins are mostly on elements present in the base model, so that's $2000 of the $3000 they were trying to cut out of the cost of the base model -- the rest will probably come with the new battery pack design.

Wall street is reacting like complete idiots, as if this extremely good delivery report was a negative. I will probably do some cash shufflin' to make sure I can execute my options.

1. Hoping you get better.
2. You made it 25
3. This price action was expected. I picked up some more this morning with some dry powder I set aside for today. This delivery-day manipulation is ridiculous, but very consistent, so I’m happy to take advantage of it.

 

[SOULPEDL]

So with Tesla's 61,394 Model 3s produced in Q4, the @Fact Checking method produced an estimate within 2.3% of Tesla's number. That's well inside the margin of error for any good estimate. It's the new 'Ivory Snow baby'. Well done!

I've been watching this closely... it's the Jelly Bean count experiment where, with more and more samples, accuracy improves. However, with Jelly Beans, people are able to see the jar whereas we were only looking at fringe details such as parking lots and cars on trucks. My response is that I'm amazed given the lack of a Jar in front of us. Although, what can a glass jar say anyway, right? Bravo Fact Checking! Had I put in my lower number, the count would have been even more accurate... sorry.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

What am I missing?

Q3 is was a blowout and profitable quarter based on the number of cars produced and delivered.

Q4 had more cars produced and delivered. It's a safe assumption that the cost to produce/deliver each car has gone down quarter over quarter?

You aren’t missing anything. This happens every time. No idea why, but you can expect it to bounce way up at ~4:20PM on whatever day they do the ER.

 

[thx1139]

to end the discussion re uptick rule once and for all:

View attachment 365424

If you dont mind what does this mean?

 

[Intl Professor]

But is not being ignored. Investors already know, it is not a secret. Dark horse won't be released, just the distribution of shares to follow

The Key For Tesla's Future Is Batteries, Not Cars
Why Tesla is building city-sized batteries
Tesla is starting to actually become an energy company
Tesla Energy is ‘battery cell starved’ but the growth outlook is ‘crazy’

Not to disagree, but my initial investment in TSLA in 2010, like many others I am sure, was based on range made possible by batteries. Tesla has always been about batteries.

 

[neroden]

Oh, also, I'm very impressed by their reduction in the vehicles-in-transit count. They really are sorting out that part of the logistics.

 

[AudubonB]

I feel like the fairy tale protagonist who is not allowed to say anything until ____X_____ occurs.

Phew! Spell has been broken!

I'd been utterly unable to take advantage of those ridiculous bounce-downs late in the last quarter - was completely estopped from freeing up any cash. Now that we're into a new year, I finally was able to do just that. So:

• we've taken advantage of today's market manipulations (change to however you care to view same) and added to our TSLA position by 5.x%. Average cost of new entry at $306.35. Happy enough with that.