Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[shlokavica22]

What was that tweet? It has been removed..

Something about EU invasion.

 

[KarenRei]

Something about EU invasion.

Ugh, dammit Russia....

 

[JBRR]

Credit goes to u/TimePossible

Tesla Model 3 orders are now open in Europe for everyone!

Note that Danish Kroner, Swedish Kroner and Norwegian Kroner are very different exchange rates.

 

[JollyRoger]

Something about EU invasion.

Actully it was about tesla ranking number 1 for luxury vehicles in the USA, but it didn't take in to account bmw audi numbers were not worldwide.

 

[KarenRei]

Note that Danish Kroner, Swedish Kroner and Norwegian Kroner are very different exchange rates.

Yeah, normally you write DKK, SEK, NOK, and in the case of Iceland, ISK. Just to avoid these sort of ambiguities. If you're only talking about one country and it's clear which country you're talking about, then you just write kr.

 

[Fact Checking]

Tesla probably learned their lesson. Instead of saying “more than Q3” they probably should have said something more firm, like 60,000. That was probably a challenge for Q4 as it seemed they weren’t sure on timing regarding when production would improve.

That's a good guess I think, I believe the thing Tesla was waiting for in Q4 was Panasonic increasing their cell production by about 50%. I.e. it was an external factor, outside their direct control - so they were justified to be cautious. It appears this increased capacity (close to 30 GWh/year total 2170 cell output at the GF1 now) came online sometime mid-November - at which point Fremont was able to sustain 6k/week production output during most of December, resulting in record production.

This is IMO possibly one of the reasons for the faster than expected opening of European and LHD orders: Tesla now knows that they can sustain 6k/week - maybe even more than that. In Q1 I'd expect a Model 3 production of 70k+, maybe even 80k+.

 

[KarenRei]

That's a good guess I think, I believe the thing Tesla was waiting for in Q4 was Panasonic increasing their cell production by about 50%. I.e. it was an external factor, outside their direct control - so they were justified to be cautious. It appears this increased capacity (close to 30 GWh/year total 2170 cell output at the GF1 now) came online sometime mid-November - at which point Fremont was able to sustain 6k/week production output during most of December, resulting in record production.

This is IMO possibly one of the reasons for the faster than expected opening of European and LHD orders: Tesla now knows that they can sustain 6k/week - maybe even more than that. In Q1 I'd expect a Model 3 production of 70k+, maybe even 80k+.

I vote for 80k+.

 

[Singer3000]

Well, I could not edit my post about the new interview with Munro.

Munro expanded upon why Detroit wasn't able to make a car like model 3, and cited this part as one of the reason - the superbottle which handles all heating and cooling of multiple systems in tesla model 3.

https://jalopnik.com/the-tesla-model-3s-superbottle-easter-egg-is-a-fascin-1830992728

He said that this is not possible with the organization structure in detroit because it crosses too many lines i.e. subsystems of a car, and therefore the different teams responsible for designing different parts of a car.

I would LOVE Elon to combine Tesla’s obviously superior experience with coolants and electrical engineering, with Boring’s presumably growing knowledge of boring and ground conditions. Goal being to crack open the economics of installing Ground Source Heat Pump systems for residential use.

Domestic heating is the huge missing piece that I’ve never heard Elon talk about, presumably because California is temperate. Well 60% of the world’s population live outside the tropics and of these, I’d guess the greater number have a domestic heating requirement depending upon altitude.

I tried on twitter a while back with but with my paltry number of followers Elon probably didn’t even see it. Perhaps one of the forum members hiding behind a pseudonym can nudge him next time they see him for a beer!

 

[KarenRei]

I would LOVE Elon to combine Tesla’s obviously superior experience with coolants and electrical engineering, with Boring’s presumably growing knowledge of boring and ground conditions. Goal being to crack open the economics of installing Ground Source Heat Pump systems for residential use.

Boring a tunnel is rather different than excavating a plot around a house, don't you think? BTW, Elon has stated that pretty much everything with home construction is a field ripe for disruption, but that he already has too much on his plate.

At one point long ago - though I never got around to it - I had been considering building a geothermal heat store for my then greenhouse. Rather than excavating, my plan was to use an auger and drill 90° intersecting diagonal holes, to then slide pipes down into (with a 90° joint at the end of one of each pair of pipes, for the other to slot into). So you'd end up with a sort of "repeating V" pattern that goes underground, back up, underground, back up, etc. I figured that a bunch of auger holes would be one heck of a lot cheaper (and easier) than having to excavate a whole plot of ground to a significant depth. Never did get a chance to try that approach out, though.

 

[Thekiwi]

I would LOVE Elon to combine Tesla’s obviously superior experience with coolants and electrical engineering, with Boring’s presumably growing knowledge of boring and ground conditions. Goal being to crack open the economics of installing Ground Source Heat Pump systems for residential use.

Domestic heating is the huge missing piece that I’ve never heard Elon talk about, presumably because California is temperate. Well 60% of the world’s population live outside the tropics and of these, I’d guess the greater number have a domestic heating requirement depending upon altitude.

I tried on twitter a while back with but with my paltry number of followers Elon probably didn’t even see it. Perhaps one of the forum members hiding behind a pseudonym can nudge him next time they see him for a beer!

He discussed it briefly on the joe Rogen podcast IIRC, and made a really goofy expression when Joe asked if Tesla would offer an A/C home product. I took it to mean Tesla is probably working on something.

 

[avoigt]

Exactly.

What is surprising about Munro's latest interview is that he is so impressed about Tesla's design for the BEV-specific components, yet when it comes to the design of the body he outright assumes that it is not a deliberate design it decision but rather a poor design that the body is designed to be stronger than the BMW 3 he compares it to.

That we have yet to learn of a traffic fatality in a model 3 may not be just luck but also due to the deliberately extra strongly designed Model 3 body.

I did listen to Munro double down on his bad body statements too. It’s actually his only critic beside he does not like that Elon won’t hire him. Although he talked to Elon he obviously called consultants Barnacles so that was not a good call I believe. That’s another indication to me that even if Elon fired the guy who designed the body Munro did not impress him nor could he imagine to hire them part time.

Munro always does say he does not understand the body and claims it is too heavy but if you do not understand an engineered part which is a fair thing you better stop talking it good or bad unless you do. I would never hire a consultant who makes recommendations without understanding that part. If one does I would rather fire him or her.

Munro reasoning is it’s overcomplicated, you do not need three different metal material in it which causes not required production challenges and its overengineered because the stiffness of the battery would help them through the crash tests.

Elon has studied physics so he understands what happens at a crash test with energy. If you expose energy to a battery and uses it to absorb that energy you have three options:

The battery is deformed, moves physically higher mostly sideways or gets hot. The first or the last may cause the battery to heat up and catch fire and the middle one usually is not sufficient to absorb the energy fully and still can catch fire if it hit something.

IOWs when Elon said he wants to do it to make the car more safe he may have talked about crash risks for the battery while everybody else believes he talked about him talking about the body crashing and hurting people inside.

You can die by burning and or by getting crashed. Elon did likly try to keep both risks separate and cover them separately. If you mix them you get a more risky profile while the two risks may interact which each other. That you want to avoid.

If you use the Battery as a stiffness crash system as suggested from Munro you take a higher risk in Battery catching fire.

I am not an expert and may be completely wrong here but Munro talks from his ICE car experience but may not fully comprehend all elements of the BEV system and as many others always tends to compare the dynamics to ICEs. That bevahiour leads you to wrong conclusions.

In short, Munro does likely not know what he talked about with respect of the Body of the 3.

 

[KarenRei]

Battery packs are stiffening elements. Stiffening doesn't mean "absorbing all of the crash forces". It means "preventing the elements that are absorbing the crash forces from buckling side to side". Furthermore, cylindrical cells absorb compressive forces quite well. They don't like shear.

But I agree with your general point that Munro shouldn't be talking about what's structurally needed and what isn't without having access to FEM data.

 

[hacer]

Exactly.

What is surprising about Munro's latest interview is that he is so impressed about Tesla's design for the BEV-specific components, yet when it comes to the design of the body he outright assumes that it is not a deliberate design it decision but rather a poor design that the body is designed to be stronger than the BMW 3 he compares it to.

That we have yet to learn of a traffic fatality in a model 3 may not be just luck but also due to the deliberately extra strongly designed Model 3 body.

Besides strength there are other reasons not to make the battery a structural element that I think Munro is missing. The battery needs to stay warm, even in the cold. If you park overnight in -30C temperatures, how would that work out if the battery is structurally connected to the rest of the car? Do you heat the whole car to +5C? Do you have a 35C temperature differential across somehow thermally isolated structural connections? Isn't it better to provide means for thermal expansion/contraction, and air gaps (high thermal resistance) so the power required to keep the batteries at temperature doesn't drain the whole battery?

 

[KarenRei]

Besides strength there are other reasons not to make the battery a structural element that I think Munro is missing. The battery needs to stay warm, even in the cold. If you park overnight in -30C temperatures, how would that work out if the battery is structurally connected to the rest of the car? Do you heat the whole car to +5C? Do you have a 35C temperature differential across somehow thermally isolated structural connections? Isn't it better to provide means for thermal expansion/contraction, and air gaps (high thermal resistance) so the power required to keep the batteries at temperature doesn't drain the whole battery?

The world has no shortage of rigid materials with poor thermal conductivity (such as plastics) that can thermally isolate a battery pack while still transferring loads to it. Additionally, the packs themselves are insulative.

Cells often expand and contract significantly in normal use (although this is minimized with cylindrical cells). They do so within the pack itself; the whole pack doesn't dramatically change in size. There is no reason why a pack must be subject to some abnormal thermal expansion / contraction forces, any more than any other part of the vehicle. The whole vehicle is a mix of a variety of metals with different thermal expansion coefficients.

 

[Zaxxon]

Doug Fields

Folks, I've mentioned this before, but get your key Tesla employee names right. It's Doug Field. Attention to detail matters when analyzing the company.

Edit: not trying to pick on you, FC. You're far from the only one.

 

[Singer3000]

Boring a tunnel is rather different than excavating a plot around a house, don't you think? BTW, Elon has stated that pretty much everything with home construction is a field ripe for disruption, but that he already has too much on his plate.

At one point long ago - though I never got around to it - I had been considering building a geothermal heat store for my then greenhouse. Rather than excavating, my plan was to use an auger and drill 90° intersecting diagonal holes, to then slide pipes down into (with a 90° joint at the end of one of each pair of pipes, for the other to slot into). So you'd end up with a sort of "repeating V" pattern that goes underground, back up, underground, back up, etc. I figured that a bunch of auger holes would be one heck of a lot cheaper (and easier) than having to excavate a whole plot of ground to a significant depth. Never did get a chance to try that approach out, though.

As you note, excavating a ditch for the piping requires a large amount of unused outside space to get sufficient surface area for heating an average sized house. Drilling vertically is much more like it (and gets to warmer earth) but is more $$$. It’s essential if you wanted to apply this to new build high density housing.

There are also world class materials scientists in Elon’s stable and I’m sure they could also bring interseasonal heat transfer to the table.

 

[Singer3000]

He discussed it briefly on the joe Rogen podcast IIRC, and made a really goofy expression when Joe asked if Tesla would offer an A/C home product. I took it to mean Tesla is probably working on something.

I remembered that being more about improving aircon efficiency. Top banana if it extends to heating too.

 

[wnorris]

Interesting he said only some Japanese manufacturers bought the report, nobody else did. Then later says Chrysler already had bought the report (perhaps the comment about Japanese was after the report made the news?). Also mentioned that "friends in Italy" were interested in how Tesla was using Halbach arrays in their motors for better power per mass/cost. Much later references "some of your analyst friends" gesturing towards the Bloomberg guy so it seems possible it was in fact the source for UBS among others. So that's confusing with all the conflicting "only this" "and also that" with regards to their customers for the report, but interesting...

Back on the Halbach arrays, he says you can't really figure out the precise way they put together their magnets without having been there when they did it (I suspect that's actually not true, he just doesn't know enough about magnetism / doesn't have the right experts on his payroll to do it).

He also said that he thought that without changes to the BIW (which he still recommends, not understanding why the pack should maybe not be a structural member when smaller packs are intended to be lighter and cheaper), Model 3s built in China could cost 20% less to produce.

It was interesting that Munro felt that the Gigafactory Shanghai will have improved production lines to those at Fremont which would allow for production costs to be vastly cheaper. He was very adamant about it which surprised me. I hope he is correct, but my take is both of the factory lines will be very similar with minimal changes. I did particularly enjoy the line about Tesla making "gazillions" from China.

Munro was clearly the expert of the four participants and seemed to be the voice of reason a number of times when the Bloomberg commentator would highlight negative themes in an attempt to sound balanced (paraphrase of his words). Also, very cool to see that he brought the motor magnet and the super cooler. Despite his having clients in competition with Tesla he was extremely balanced. Definitely worth a listen...

 

[shlokavica22]

IOWs when Elon said he wants to do it to make the car more safe he may have talked about crash risks for the battery while everybody else believes he talked about him talking about the body crashing and hurting people inside.

You can die by burning and or by getting crashed. Elon did likly try to keep both risks separate and cover them separately. If you mix them you get a more risky profile while the two risks may interact which each other. That you want to avoid.

Not to mention the negative press such an accidents will receive. Having a rock solid, stellar battery pack is essential for convincing the public to take the EV path.

That being said, I do give Munro the benefit of the doubt that some body improvements can be made. In fact- this is good news, because it will lead to further margin improvement.
Overall, he confirmed the conviction many of us here hold- the Big Auto is not capable (anymore) to outpace TSLA in innovation.

 

[Sancho]

BTW, Elon has stated that pretty much everything with home construction is a field ripe for disruption, but that he already has too much on his plate.
.

This reminds me that Munro in the interview likens Elon Musk to Thomas Edison. I’ve been comparing Musk to Steve Jobs, but Edison really is the better comparison.

Did you see that Governor Cuomo called Tesla this week to ask for help figuring out how to optimize the NYC subway? And of course Rahm Emanuel picked Musk to do the fast O’Hare-downtown connection.

An Edison comes around about once a century. I haven’t felt this excited to be on the same planet as someone else since the heyday of Sandy Koufax.