Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[TheTalkingMule]

BTW, the IV is steadily going up. So, even though some $8 down today, many of the OTM 3/15 call prices are same or higher than yesterday.

What's the easiest way to track IV for TSLA call purchases? Knowing next to nothing, I'm just manually tracking certain strikes over time and looking up historical price charts. Can I look at an IV figure somewhere and reliably assume that day's calls are "priced well" from a volatility perspective?

 

[Remus]

It would be, but the real shorts (as opposed to people who either want Tesla to fail or think it will) are attracted to underweight stock. You can think Tesla will be the most successful car company in the world, and still feel the price is too high @$350 or $300. I think RBC made the point that even if Tesla sells 1m Model 3's @ an ASP of $55k, given a 15x P/E that's a valuation of $195. The rest is "Elon premium".

You can't argue the price is being suppressed by speculative shorts without acknowledging that it has been inflated by speculative longs (which it very much has). If you've been buying big at ~$300 it's either a very short term bet, or a very long term bet.

Disclaimer: Long TSLA, definitely not selling.

55b revenue, suppose 5b profit, 15 PE lands you mark cap of 75b, higher than what we are now. You really need to twist a lot to get that 195 number.

Back when I first saved enough money to invest in stock I read the classic book "intelligent investor" where 16 is the majic PE to look for. Problem is that was in a time we have "normal" interest rate. And that is used to value companies with stable growth such as 3%

16 is higher than 15.

 

[anthonyj]

You’re right, it wasn’t nice. I should have tried to find a diplomatic way to tell him he’s a bi-polar, emotional wreck that shouldn’t be investing in TSLA and needs to go seek help for hus condition. Sincerest apologies.

Haha, you act like I’m throwing my keyboard into my monitor. I’m buying shares every $10 drop. I think you’re the one who is cranky

 

[TheTalkingMule]

You’re right, it wasn’t nice. I should have tried to find a diplomatic way to tell him he’s a bi-polar, emotional wreck that shouldn’t be investing in TSLA and needs to go seek help for hus condition. Sincerest apologies.

This is it....peak FUD. If TSLA ever gets to prove it doesn't need to raise funds, it's game over. Everyone's been saying this was in the mail for the last 6 months, now you're surprised when it shows up precisely on time? Maintain your composure for god's sake!

 

[tivoboy]

What do you see as the next levels of resistance?

286$ is a clear level of support. 274.xx is the next level below. Frankly I think we could still see sub $270 in this swing. Bulls want a deal before ER though I don’t see ER being too beneficial overall so any irrational rises should be sold for the inevitable fall after earnings. And the window won’t be open too long. Have a plan and stick to it.

 

[shlokavica22]

BTW, the IV is steadily going up. So, even though some $8 down today, many of the OTM 3/15 call prices are same or higher than yesterday. So, even though SP may go lower - the calls may not !

Just to reiterate that (for anyone considering short term play).

What's the easiest way to track IV for TSLA call purchases? Knowing next to nothing, I'm just manually tracking certain strikes over time and looking up historical price charts. Can I look at an IV figure somewhere and reliably assume that day's calls are "priced well" from a volatility perspective?

Trading platform. Just FYI, the IV changes constantly during the day.

 

[Garlands]

looks like the Glovis Symphony is headed for China, a larger ship than the ones going to EU.

Walter MacVane on Twitter

 

[Nocturnal]

Bruh. This SP is nuts. So the market expects a smaller than Q3 profit, revenue is growing like crazy, sales are expected to grow like crazy, small layoff with higher than previous production levels on vehicles where R&D has already been funded.

291? What the fark. I wish I had more cash on hand to buy in at 290. My current average SP is 310 and I'd like that to be a little lower.

 

[Causalien]

Well. Reached my buy trigger condition today. Nice vol nice dip. Perfect for put selling.

If I didn't follow the news daily, Iwould've thought, from today's action, TSLA released another negative earnings report where thwy burned 800 mil.

But nope, just another analyst downgrade.

 

[mrwuffles]

Bruh. This SP is nuts. So the market expects a smaller than Q3 profit, revenue is growing like crazy, sales are expected to grow like crazy, small layoff with higher than previous production levels on vehicles where R&D has already been funded.

291? What the fark. I wish I had more cash on hand to buy in at 290. My current average SP is 310 and I'd like that to be a little lower.

I don't believe in a rational market. Maybe when investing wasn't so accessible and there weren't bots using algos to trade. Between the shorts piling on because they think converts will bankwupt TSLA to the amateur RH investors playing weeklies as if they're lotto tickets, any short-term news has a big impact. Combine that with macros down yesterday and today's MMD, and it makes sense. Glad the $288 support has held, or we could be down to ~$260...

Then I'd have to transfer more $ over to buy at fire sale prices

 

[Krugerrand]

Wall Street is playing puppeteer with investor sentiment and causing wild swings with FUD and downgrades. What’s wrong with talking about that? At least I’m not saying Tesla is going BK. People are sick of penny stock action in a large cap stock. You can block me if you would like!

You aren’t talking about it. You’re cursing and swearing and waving your arms like a baboon.

I’ve been here for over 6 years. What’s happening isn’t new or news. FYI, my investor sentiment hasn’t changed one bit in that time.

I don’t block people.

 

[Hock1]

What's the easiest way to track IV for TSLA call purchases? Knowing next to nothing, I'm just manually tracking certain strikes over time and looking up historical price charts. Can I look at an IV figure somewhere and reliably assume that day's calls are "priced well" from a volatility perspective?

Options, as a general matter, are priced so that more often than not, the buyers of said options will lose. JMO.

 

[Reciprocity]

2m shares already. People are sick of this s***. Elon is sick of this s***... wouldn’t be surprised if a holding company is soaking up shares to go private...

That ship has sailed. More likely, you will see stock buybacks.

 

[shlokavica22]

Uh...people were getting laid off. No reason to look any further or for some secret reason. It’s quite normal to tell all employees there will be layoffs before you actually walk people out the door. Simple.

FYI, people got let go the very next day. Seriously, quit with the over speculation and ridiculous talk; we hear enough of it from the other side of the aisle. There is no good time to tell people they’ve lost their jobs and it’s just right and proper to tell them why.

Some of us trade the stock and like to consider all angels that can impact the price in the long/short term. Weirdly enough, this is the place to talk exactly about that.

 

[Ellec]

This dipping happens every quarter a week or so before earning,s last quarter it was down near $250, so this is an improvement.

 

[Wooloomooloo]

55b revenue, suppose 5b profit, 15 PE lands you mark cap of 75b, higher than what we are now. You really need to twist a lot to get that 195 number.

Back when I first saved enough money to invest in stock I read the classic book "intelligent investor" where 16 is the majic PE to look for. Problem is that was in a time we have "normal" interest rate. And that is used to value companies with stable growth such as 3%

16 is higher than 15.

$195 was the discounted back value, assuming 12% EBIT - regardless, I agree with you that in totality what they say doesn't make sense - frankly $55k ASP for the Model 3 is ridiculous, given higher volumes will result from lower prices. It feels like their analysts internally don't agree with one another.

 

[avoigt]

1. 
   21m21 minutes ago
   $TSLA short interest $7.28 bn; 24.98 mm shares short; 19.89% of float; stock borrow 30 bps. Shares shorted declined by 319k over the last week, & by 590k in 2019 even as #Tesla's stock price is down -12.5% in 2019. Shorts are now up $1.03 billion in mark-to-market profits YTD.
   
   
   
   
   Ihor Dusaniwsky on Twitter
   2 replies1 retweet5 likes
   

 

[lklundin]

looks like the Glovis Symphony is headed for China, a larger ship than the ones going to EU.

Walter MacVane on Twitter

Yes, the Glovis Symphony is headed for Tianjin, with ETA Feb 11,

GLOVIS SYMPHONY, Vehicles Carrier - Details and current position - IMO 9702429 MMSI 538005672 - VesselFinder

Other Tesla shipments have gone to that port, per

Compare daily satellite images of Tesla production locations

 

[Unpilot]

I wished but did not receive. The man at the top cared too much for the plebes.

Be careful .....That was ALMOST a poem.

 

[JKCOOKIE]

Regarding the "shorts are just like longs, just on the opposite side of the trade" argument: I disagree, because the behavioral patterns and incentives of shorts/bears is fundamentally different from the behavioral patterns of longs/bulls.

Let's list the various completely fabricated or at minimum bad faith lies the $TSLAQ activist shorts have come up with in the recent past:

• The fake complaints to the NTSA about Tesla's transmission problems, using fake VINs
• The "Mechanic's Liens" lie
• The "empty parking lots prove there's not enough production" lie
• The "full parking lots prove there's not enough demand" lie
• The misleading photos from the "Tent", fraudulently claiming that Tesla isn't really producing anything there
• The misleading photos from the "Tent" suggesting shoddy quality
• The "Tesla is running out of cash so they are asking suppliers for cash back" lie in August
• The "Well's Notice" lie
• The "Tesla is a bigger fire threat than ICE cars" Big Lie
• The "Tesla doesn't have a sustainable business model and is structurally unprofitable" lie
• The "Homologation" lie
• The "negative working capital" lie
• The bearish investors having the two highest revenue estimates in the First Call analyst consensus lie
• The "missed deliveries expectations" lie
• The "Elon is a fraud" lie
• The "Missing registered VINs" lie
• The "Service centers are closing" lie
• The "unsafe working conditions at Tesla's factory" lie
• The New York Times lies about Elon's interview
• CBS 60 Minutes lies about what Elon said, with an express intent to pit Elon against the Tesla board and against the SEC
• The constant, non-stop lies about Tesla by Jim Chanos and Einhorn in business news

Make no mistake about it: activist Tesla shorts are consciously, intentionally and in full bad faith making up lies and are spreading them, with an intent to hurt Tesla, to hurt Tesla's partners, to hurt Tesla's suppliers, to hurt Tesla's employees, to hurt Tesla's customers and to hurt the rest of the world as well. They are preying on Tesla customers on Twitter strategically and are trying to poison Tesla related discussions and articles. If you search for $TSLA on Twitter you will prominently get misleading short propaganda served. They collude to herd on the stock price, they collude to magnify certain types of news, and they collude to hurt Tesla's demand. Whenever there's a bigger drop in the stock price, they swarm various investor and social media forums and try to rattle investors with FUD.

On the other hand here's the full list of recent 'Tesla long' conspiracies, delusions and pump and dump schemes:

• "Last quarter's losses weren't so bad, I still have faith in Tesla!"
• "Next quarter profits will be high, shorts will be squeeezed!"
• "FSD will be released soon!"

That's it! (And to be fair half of the longs disagree about FSD and about the short squeeze to begin with.)

The vast majority of Tesla longs are totally harmless, totally transparent, generally argue in good faith and their arguments are easy to double check for over-optimism. I have to say Tesla longs are the most incompetent stock pump and dumpers in the world, because they are holding the stock, not dumping it.

Not a bit of bad faith against anyone who argues honestly that I've seen - just hope, wishful thinking and a bit of a bull echo chamber.

It's fundamentally asymmetrical warfare that Tesla shorts are waging, based on the fact that it's much easier to create fake uncertainty about a company and its products than to create fake certainty.

Let's keep all this context and track record in mind before we compare shorts to longs with an unfair "bothsiderism": shorts are spreading lies tactically and strategically, and have been doing it for years.

If you are not outraged about this then you are not paying attention.

I am more outraged by the fact that innocents who cannot differentiate the identities on social networks of practising shorts, and EVEN their parodies, are very often unnerved by the short hyperbole.Even , on occasion, as a long, long $ and Model S Owner I have been spooked enough to research the validity of the posting origin.Its hard enough to educate an ICE owner about the value of EVs its a different gradient trying to correct this level of misinformation.Plus in. Many cases there even examples of reputable National Press publications acting like shorts. Its becoming an increasingly worrying problem. Surely some assertive action is possible?