It’s almost like some smart sounding dude in formal business suit can say any vague bs on TV and most of the viewers eat it up.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
It’s almost like some smart sounding dude in formal business suit can say any vague bs on TV and most of the viewers eat it up.
Krugerrand
Meow
Okay, okay, not going to try to push here Krugerrand, lols.
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
That was a late November decision, when Q4 results were still an open question.
After the Q4 results, which generated record amounts of free cash flow, Tesla (Elon) issued a voluntary profit warning that dropped the share price well below conversion price.
They could have waited for Q1 to be over and could have posted "tiny" profits - it's entirely voluntary whether a profit warning is issued. They could have waited until March 2.
My interpretation: after Q4 they preferred to pay the convertibles in cash, for the reasons I outlined, and thus they decided to disclose all the "possibly" bad news before March 1.
We do suck. We are petty,greedy,mean,many ways stupid.
Yet here we are on the cusp of either wiping our self's out ...or maybe just maybe ....growing up enough to become a multi-planetary species. With universal replicators for whatever we can imagine.
Yet here we are on the cusp of either wiping our self's out ...or maybe just maybe ....growing up enough to become a multi-planetary species. With universal replicators for whatever we can imagine.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
You're missing the significance of naked short selling by market makers. If they can create an arbitrary number of shares on demand, there can be no squeeze since the normal laws of supply and demand do not apply to the SP.
About a week ago, after dark, I was driving in a blinding blowing horizontal snow on a deserted road. Roads were not snow covered yet but the wind and heavy snowing was making visibility difficult. Up came the autopilot symbol and I cautiously tried it. Worked fine. The vision field must have been loaded with visual noise but it seemed to be just fine. I think it must have been able to find the line patterns in the visual noise. If the road was completely covered with fresh snow and there were few lane tracks then I think the symbol would not appear. I was impressed. Next I have to see how it reacts to a deer stepping onto the road at night.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Yeah, you do not recall correctly. That was a BS story cooked up by Dana Hull on Bloomberg. Elon said no such thing.
Tesla Is Said to Plan Using Stock-Cash Mix to Pay March Debt - Bloomberg
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Mader Levap
Member
I dunno why everyone scoff at Bill Gates' statements about EVs. Yes, there will be many various great electric cars to choose. Other manufactures will come (mainly from China, completely new startups and survivors of ICE purges).
If you think Tesla will have world-wide monopoly on electric cars, you are delusional.
If you think Tesla will have world-wide monopoly on electric cars, you are delusional.
You might be right but I think there's a risk of lost opportunity. Other's are investing heavily in the EV space, and the decision to raise capital or not could be the difference between dominating the electric pickup and semi markets or not. To me, raising capital is something you do when you have great ideas but not enough money to take them to market (Where as buying back stock is something you do when you are all out of ideas... but I digress).
So to restate the question, do you think Tesla will be worth more as a company if they could launch Y, Roadster, Semi and Pickup truck all in the next 2 years with production meeting demand or if they only have enough capital to launch Y?
As a stock holder I'd rather have my shares diluted slightly (say 5%) to allow Tesla to increase their cash on hand by 2.5B so they can do more, faster. Not to mention it would take away yet another short thesis. This would have been more timely when the stock was at 360 a share recently, but even now a 5% move is nothing in my mind compared to the value of allowing Tesla to operate with less cash constraints.
adiggs
Well-Known Member
I haven't experienced this in snow, but we get heavy rain now and then around where I live. I've been in rain, especially on the freeway with other cars throwing water up from the road, so heavy that even with the wipers on high, the lanes were hard to make out. I've found in those situations that the lane keeping has a better handle on where the lane is and keeps my car in the lane better than I do.
Me likey.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Gates statement can be true or delusional depending on the time horizon. In 10 years, I'm sure there will be other great EVs. In 2 year ?
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
So if a shareholder thinks that TSLA fair value is $1,000 right now, then the dilutive cost of conversion to 2.5 million shares at $390 is about 3 billion dollars. Quite steep price.
Tesla should instead use non-equity loans - like they are doing for the Shanghai Gigafactory.
I feel your frustration. Very few understand the whole concept of FTDs, created by NSS, and their effect on the market. Most assume the market is a zero-sum game. That concept is so last-century. Outrageous.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Yep. This is why being FCF positive and having a decent rating from Moody's is important.
I still think the best way to get loans is to tap state/country governments. They are desperate for new manufacturing industries in their states/countries.
Vincent (@vincent13031925) | Twitter
Really bizarre to me that she could literally just make something up and publish it with no recourse. We all though maybe Elon had changed him mind from the quarter before when he said it would be paid in cash but then on the latest earnings, he reiterated that they're planning to pay it with cash. So in between quarters, Dana created a fictional story because she knew Elon wouldn't comment on it until the Q4 earning call
Really bizarre to me that she could literally just make something up and publish it with no recourse. We all though maybe Elon had changed him mind from the quarter before when he said it would be paid in cash but then on the latest earnings, he reiterated that they're planning to pay it with cash. So in between quarters, Dana created a fictional story because she knew Elon wouldn't comment on it until the Q4 earning call
This is not made up at all. They would still cover conversions this way but no one will convert if the stock price is under $360.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
This is exactly correct. Tesla current (and projected future) growth rate is NOT constrained by capital. Telsa has learned how to be capital efficient in the process of winding up Model 3 production at Fremont.
They are a well-balanced corporation now, having a carefully balance of R&D, production, facilities expansion, revenues and new product plans.
This is what Elon said in response to this issue during the 2018 Q3 CC in Oct 2018:
Maynard Um (Macquarie Analyst):
"Hi, thank you. Congratulations on a great turning point for Tesla. As you continue to scale the business, can you talk about how we should think about how you balance profits versus reinvestment, you're targeting sustainable GAAP profitability and cash flow but I'm curious if there's a level of GAAP profitability or GAAP operating margin or cash flow you want to hold and then take the excess to fund new growth or accelerate opportunities?"
Elon R. Musk - Co-Founder, Chairman, Chief Executive Officer & Product Architect
"Sure, I mean, maybe to, if I characterize that question it would be like, are we starving new vehicle development in order to achieve GAAP profitability and cash flow positive? Would that be inaccurate? Is that essentially...?
"The answer is no. So we've made significant progress on the Model Y. So in fact I approved the prototype to go into production recently, so it will be 2020 before that's in volume production. We made great progress there.
"Also we continue to make progress on the Semi and the new Tesla Roadster. And then actually product them. Personally most excited about is the Tesla pickup truck. I think that's going to be some next level stuff there."
"Hi, thank you. Congratulations on a great turning point for Tesla. As you continue to scale the business, can you talk about how we should think about how you balance profits versus reinvestment, you're targeting sustainable GAAP profitability and cash flow but I'm curious if there's a level of GAAP profitability or GAAP operating margin or cash flow you want to hold and then take the excess to fund new growth or accelerate opportunities?"
Elon R. Musk - Co-Founder, Chairman, Chief Executive Officer & Product Architect
"Sure, I mean, maybe to, if I characterize that question it would be like, are we starving new vehicle development in order to achieve GAAP profitability and cash flow positive? Would that be inaccurate? Is that essentially...?
"The answer is no. So we've made significant progress on the Model Y. So in fact I approved the prototype to go into production recently, so it will be 2020 before that's in volume production. We made great progress there.
"Also we continue to make progress on the Semi and the new Tesla Roadster. And then actually product them. Personally most excited about is the Tesla pickup truck. I think that's going to be some next level stuff there."
Cheers!
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