Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Fact Checking]

This would not be a smart move in my opinion.

Immediate retaliatory tariffs against punitive tariffs is the standard reply in such situations. There's no ifs and whens about that, if the Trump administration goes this way then it's going to happen.

 

[KarenRei]

This would not be a smart move in my opinion. The EU should fairly negotiate. Auto tariffs would drive most of the EU into an immediate recession, especially Germany. The US is closing in on a massive deal with China and the markets are back to approaching an all time high. So the US economy would still be flourishing while the EU would be in recession. I’m not sure why the EU would put themselves in that position when all that is being asked for is reciprocity.

In regards to Tesla, I think EU auto tariffs would be good. They would snatch up even more of the luxury car US market share. It’s not a big deal to redirect sales to Asia and US until the trade dispute gets worked out.

That's just the way that tariff wars work. If one side puts tariffs on you, but you don't retaliate, then you have no leverage over them in the negotiations. They can just keep their tariffs on you as long as they want until you concede. Retaliatory tariffs are a way to try to force the opposite side to negotiate.

As Juncker said last year when Trump first mentioned that he was looking at tariffs against the EU:

"So now we will also impose import tariffs. This is basically a stupid process, the fact that we have to do this. But we have to do it. We will now impose tariffs on motorcycles, Harley Davidson, on blue jeans, Levis, on Bourbon. We can also do stupid. We also have to be this stupid."

The process is a lot further along than that now, mind you.

 

[Fact Checking]

* 2170s really aren't any meaningful amount more energy dense than 18650s. They pack them a bit more dense in the packs, though. He notes that they appear to have the same chemistry.
* Lots of elaboration on why capacitors in EVs are a total nonstarter, including a description of a project where he spent $10k to add a supercapacitor bank to an EV and it actually slowed the car down.
* A great deal of description about how awesome dry electrode tech is, first focused on how bad current solvent tech is (how toxic and flammable the solvent is, how massive the equipment to remove it is, etc), and a comparison to how small and simple the equipment for the dry electrode tech is.
* Talked some about Maxwell's capacity and power improvements, and how from reading Maxwell's documents, he gets the impression that Maxwell doesn't even understand why. He believes that he does know why, however. Solvent-based binding reaches into every crevice between active materials and can hinder ion diffusion between cracks, but the melt-binding dry polymer approach acts more like a glue at specific points between particles without interfering with flow between fine channels.
* He did a simulated 160kW Supercharge cycle on a 2170 and showed how easily it handled it. He also did a 0,25C discharge cycle, with a voltage graph included.
* He really thinks the Model 3 LR pack should be called a 71kWh pack. You can call it more if you base your measurement around deeper discharge cycles (which he considers unrealistically deep) or slower discharge (0,1C vs. 0,25C), but again he considers that unrealistically slow.
* He goes a lot into how cell capacity generally varies a lot depending on discharge rate... but how the Maxwell approach does not experience this effect much.

This is what I remember off the top of my head.

Thanks a ton, those are some gold nuggets of information in Jack Rickard's video, again.

 

[KarenRei]

Thanks a ton, those are some gold nuggets of information in Jack Rickard's video, again.

Jack is such a wealth of information. It's sad to see his health visibly declining in his videos

 

[KarenRei]

A picture from Jack of a typical drying oven to remove solvent from the electrode materials - 30-60 feet long, with both vacuum and heat and having to capture and distill the solvent:

He notes by contrast that the equipment to make the dry electrodes is about 4 feet long

 

[samppa]

New member here, great forum!
So been thinking about shorting some of the major automakers. With put options to the next year or so. Thoughts?

 

[Unpilot]

ON U.S. Energy Imports -

Here's a easy datum to keep in your back pocket:

With a net import of (nice, round) 5 million bpd

And there being something close to 365 days in a year

And crude being in the neighborhood of $55/bbl

.......

That works out to a nice, neat $100 billion of imported oil each year. <==There. A nice easy number to remember....and to use as needed.

Almost a whole wall.

 

[Heart Land]

Immediate retaliatory tariffs against punitive tariffs is the standard reply in such situations. There's no ifs and whens about that, if the Trump administration goes this way then it's going to happen.

In regards to how this impacts Tesla, I assume there will be a short term dip in stock price and deliveries will be redirected (similar what they have done in response to the China dispute). But once a final deal is made, they will be better off in the long run. Ultimately, Tesla will be in the best position they have ever been in.

 

[KarenRei]

In regards to how this impacts Tesla, I assume there will be a short term dip in stock price and deliveries will be redirected (similar what they have done in response to the China dispute). But once a final deal is made, they will be better off in the long run. Ultimately, Tesla will be in the best position they have ever been in.

No question. It's the reason why I'm only a "temporary bear" And I might even be wrong about that, maybe the market has already priced this fully in, or other factors will overcome it. Or maybe for once cooler heads will prevail in the White House.

... sorry, had to stop myself from snickering at the latter part.

Either way, as soon as the report is unveiled, and hopefully with Trump making a statement about it, and also hopefully with the EU's planned response disclosed, I'll be able to get out of this itchy bear suit

 

[KarenRei]

BTW, the other day people here were complaining about user @tesla_truth on Twitter using the name "Steve Jobs", about how that was distasteful. I just found out... that's actually his real name. He was actually suspended by Twitter a couple months back, then reinstated after he proved his identity.

 

[Unpilot]

2 hours 16 minutes ... still over an hour at double speed. Anyone volunteering to take one for the team and create a short textual summary of notable key points found?

There are no short cut's with Jack.

 

[Unpilot]

There are no short cut's with Jack.

But there is Karen....thanks for the summary!

 

[Singer3000]

No question. It's the reason why I'm only a "temporary bear" And I might even be wrong about that, maybe the market has already priced this fully in, or other factors will overcome it. Or maybe for once cooler heads will prevail in the White House.

... sorry, had to stop myself from snickering at the latter part.

Either way, as soon as the report is unveiled, and hopefully with Trump making a statement about it, and also hopefully with the EU's planned response disclosed, I'll be able to get out of this itchy bear suit

This chat is making me shiver. I need a warm blanket made of SR / non PUP production for North America or a long term trade agreement signed with China. Otherwise it could be a very cold few months indeed.

 

[KarenRei]

This chat is making me shiver. I need a warm blanket made of SR / non PUP production for North America or a long term trade agreement signed with China. Otherwise it could be a very cold few months indeed.

This topic has been making me shiver all week.

On the upside, it's very unlikely to happen immediately (if it does happen). There's (as many as) 90 days for Trump to decide whether to sign off on the report, and if he did, 15 days to implement the tariffs. Of course, Trump could implement them immediately if he so chose (but that's not considered likely). The expectation is that he'll hold this threat against the EU during negotiations, but wait on implementing them so long as progress seems to be being made towards an agreement.

 

[JRP3]

or slower discharge (0,1C vs. 0,25C), but again he considers that unrealistically slow.

Seems as if a number of people report getting more than 71kWh from their packs so maybe not as unrealistic as he claims.

 

[Buckminster]

This topic has been making me shiver all week.

On the upside, it's very unlikely to happen immediately (if it does happen). There's (as many as) 90 days for Trump to decide whether to sign off on the report, and if he did, 15 days to implement the tariffs. Of course, Trump could implement them immediately if he so chose (but that's not considered likely). The expectation is that he'll hold this threat against the EU during negotiations, but wait on implementing them so long as progress seems to be being made towards an agreement.

I am wondering if Trump is leveraging the Brexit deal in some way. He was supportive of future trade with UK in the recent speech. Also, he might prefer to make a final decision post Brexit regardless.

 

[KarenRei]

More "cranes" at GF3

Actually, one on the far right looks like an actual crane.

 

[SebastianR]

This topic has been making me shiver all week.

On the upside, it's very unlikely to happen immediately (if it does happen). There's (as many as) 90 days for Trump to decide whether to sign off on the report, and if he did, 15 days to implement the tariffs. Of course, Trump could implement them immediately if he so chose (but that's not considered likely).

Regardless, if any EU folks want to have a Model 3, now would be a good time to order. Who knows what will happen in the coming 90 days...

 

[Drax7]

The Ideal is no tariffs, though reciprocity in tariffs as a policy is a forcing
Function to drive them down.

If Europe retaliates to a reciprocal tariff, one has to conclude they are negotiating in bad faith.

 

[Singer3000]

I am wondering if Trump is leveraging the Brexit deal in some way. He was supportive of future trade with UK in the recent speech. Also, he might prefer to make a final decision post Brexit regardless.

If the UK Brexits without a trade deal or a transition period with the EU, it’s quite likely the UK govt would implement a time limited tariff free window on pretty much all imports. I’ve little doubt a US-UK trade deal wouldn’t be far behind. Failing that outcome, the UK will be locked in the EU’s tariff schedule for at least another 21 months and potentially far longer, rumoured Tesla tax and all.
<sad emoji face>