Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MarcusMaximus]

I

Haha I wanted like 200k order in 24 hrs...half of what we got when it was first announced. At this point I'd settle to know there are 100k orders of the SR and SR +. Really any info on demand. When they got that first 400k, they announced it right away. Hopefully we get news like that with model Y.

200k plus what they’ve already sold(probably ~200k) is almost the entire reservation list. You assumed there were roughly 0 reservations from outside the US, and that every single person with a reservation was going to decide on the exact spec they wanted, secure a loan and be ready to go instantly, shortly after having been told they’d have to wait until summer?

These expectations seem... unrealistic.

 

[PhaseWhite]

Well that's kinda my point...if Tesla is incentivized to show deliveries and it only shows 6 to 8 weeks....that is not good.

You misunderstand my point. New buyers are less likely to buy if they think they have to wait 2 months.

 

[gringotuanis]

You misunderstand my point. New buyers are less likely to buy if they think they have to wait 2 months.

Got it. My bad.

 

[Artful Dodger]

That total of 4 million new vehicles in U.S. stock is a 21-month high, Morgan Stanley's equity analyst Adam Jonas wrote. In dollar terms, it's about $140 billion in inventory, Jonas wrote.

Wot, now all of the the sudden Janus can add?!!

 

[Remus]

I

Haha I wanted like 200k order in 24 hrs...half of what we got when it was first announced. At this point I'd settle to know there are 100k orders of the SR and SR +. Really any info on demand. When they got that first 400k, they announced it right away. Hopefully we get news like that with model Y.

Only 39% of the people in U.S. can find 1000 in the bank for emergency. How many people can line up 37k in 24 hours? How many of those who have always been interested in model 3 and haven't bought the MR yet?

 

[skitown]

Come-on, how can you not understand the logic. Originally they had 400k orders...if even 200k orders were still "active " at around a 5k a week production rate...what delivery time should Tesla's website show? 6 to 8 weeks would only be about 40k orders so it should be 5x that for a wait time.

At this point, I'm operating under the assumption there is no backlog. It wouldn't change my investment thesis. My family ended up buying two AWD Model 3s ASAP, vs. waiting for the SR like we originally planned years ago. Hell, we actually bought two CPO Model S's two years ago because life is short. I'm assuming much of the backlog was burned down - which is great for Tesla. Model 3 is the best product I've ever owned - bar none. My bet is that they will have no problem selling them like hotcakes at any price sub-40K. And to my eye, they are prioritizing that demand as I would.

 

[gringotuanis]

200k plus what they’ve already sold(probably ~200k) is almost the entire reservation list. You assumed there were roughly 0 reservations from outside the US, and that every single person with a reservation was going to decide on the exact spec they wanted, secure a loan and be ready to go instantly, shortly after having been told they’d have to wait until summer?

These expectations seem... unrealistic.

Well, let's just say 75 or 100k for the SR. Right now it seems like about 20k...which seems...disappointing!

I mean how hard is it to put an order in with a $2500 deposit? It would take me 1, maybe 2 days to get financing approved by the bank.

 

[gringotuanis]

Only 39% of the people in U.S. can find 1000 in the bank for emergency. How many people can line up 37k in 24 hours? How many of those who have always been interested in model 3 and haven't bought the MR yet?

This is true, but most ppl should be able to get financing within 3 or 4 days at any bank. I mean we're just talking preorders here, most ppl have a credit card they can put the $2500 on I would think (or $1k) not sure what the deposit amount is now.

 

[Carl Raymond]

I see the concern trolls are earning a bit of overtime this weekend. I wish them well in their next campaign. (Not really, an honest living would be preferable).

 

[Remus]

This is true, but most ppl should be able to get financing within 3 or 4 days at any bank. I mean we're just talking preorders here, most ppl have a credit card they can put the $2500 on I would think (or $1k) not sure what the deposit amount is now.

And how many of those folks happens to have a car to replace?

35k model 3 is not for folks with money to burn.

 

[ReflexFunds]

Potential (likely best case) Tesla upcoming timeline:

• March 14th - Model Y reveal. 50% chance of S/X refresh reveal?
• March 15th - Software release. (Peak power & range upgrade, on-route battery warm up, Advance summon?, automatic NAV on AP?)
• March/April 2019 - AP3 Hardware in all new cars.
• March-June 2019 - New Grohmann SR/SR+ pack production hits design volume.
• Q2 - Software release. (V3 supercharging)
• May 2019 - GF3 external construction complete
• 1H19 - Solar roof production ramp at GF2.
• Summer 2019 - Pickup reveal.
• August/September 2019 - S&P inclusion?
• September 2019 - First GF3 production
• November/December 2019 - GF3 hits 3k per week?
• 2H19 - FSD update (possibly with V10)- Stop signs, traffic lights and city streets with human supervision.
• 2H19 - V10 software? Tesla Car Karaoke, Video streaming.
• 2H19 - Model Y tooling begins at GF1 or Fremont
• 2Q-3Q20 - Model Y hits full volume production.
• 2020 - Semi & Roadster production. Pickup production?
• 2H19/2020 - European GF4 announced?
• 2H20 - Elon considers FSD safe enough to use without human supervision (but still no regulatory approval or rollout of nag free AP)
• 2H20 new cheaper car model reveal (compact?).

Just realised I completely forgot from this list:

• March 20th - Plant a seed day

 

[gringotuanis]

200k plus what they’ve already sold(probably ~200k) is almost the entire reservation list. You assumed there were roughly 0 reservations from outside the US, and that every single person with a reservation was going to decide on the exact spec they wanted, secure a loan and be ready to go instantly, shortly after having been told they’d have to wait until summer?

These expectations seem... unrealistic.

Oh also when they announced the 3 for the first time didn't they reveal 400k orders in the first 24 hrs like right after the weekend of the announcement? I remember it was very fast so some ppl had money to put down.

 

[gringotuanis]

And how many of those folks happens to have a car to replace?

35k model 3 is not for folks with money to burn.

I used to sell cars (new from a main stream brand) and many ppl will just replace simply because they want to. We approved borderline credit cases all the time cuz these ppl were just out of control with their spending. If they could afford the monthly payment they would just happily sign to upgrade.

 

[jerry33]

I think Elon is going all or nothing. He sees the numbers and decides this is the only way to offer the $35k car. The leases may not be able to be broken without significant penalties, but you could sublease to other businesses so they (Tesla) get out of it without much damage ....and you save all the employee payroll and benefits which is a huge cost savings.

Whether they can sublease or not depends on the lease contract they signed. It also depends if they can find a tenant for the time remaining (even popular malls have empty spaces these days). And some will be converted to galleries, or becomes part of the service centre for those stores in the same building, so the lease question never enters into it.

 

[TradingInvest]

Personally, I'm opening up an account to go long. I prefer the Model 3 to the S/X and the fact you can grab one for $35k before incentives is mind boggling. We have an M3 LR AWD and the ONLY car I'd trade it for under $200k is a performance version of the M3. [I've driven hundreds of cars as an auto journalist.] We've seen the big old legacy automakers having serious issues meeting the same efficiency. A Tesla isn't just an electric car, it's a different thing. The general populous will realize this soon. If you have a garage and don't have a four hour commute, it would be nuts to purchase any other car on the market save for specialty vehicles, for now.

Tesla spend huge amount of effort on design, innovation and manufacturing, but they don't spend nearly enough effort to educate the public. At the minimum they should build a webpage called something like "Tesla Facts", explain everything with real data. They don't have to be perfect, just explain the things truthfully (for example, is EV actually dirtier than ICE vehicles? Tesla owners have to replace battery pack every few years? Tesla cars are unsafe? Tesla cars get on fire all the time?). They can even build the framework, let the fans to add and check the contents. All the common FUD could be addressed in this one place.

Right now the general public have no places to find the facts, they google online, what they see is usually paid bashing. Fans can try to explain things here and there, it's not as efficient as the bashing campaign.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Oh also when they announced the 3 for the first time didn't they reveal 400k orders in the first 24 hrs like right after the weekend of the announcement? I remember it was very fast so some ppl had money to put down.

Let’s put it this way: right now you’re trying to read tea leaves from estimated shipping production times with an unknown production speed and without knowing how those estimates are formed. A bit of patience is probably called for here.

 

[PhaseWhite]

I

Haha I wanted like 200k order in 24 hrs...half of what we got when it was first announced. At this point I'd settle to know there are 100k orders of the SR and SR +. Really any info on demand. When they got that first 400k, they announced it right away. Hopefully we get news like that with model Y.

Putting in a real $2500 order deposit is a big commitment compared to a fully refundable reservation deposit. I think orders will pick up when the weather improves and also as we approach the next tax credit phase out.

 

[gringotuanis]

Let’s put it this way: right now you’re trying to read tea leaves from estimated shipping production times with an unknown production speed and without knowing how those estimates are formed. A bit of patience is probably called for here.

This is due to my call options. According to forecasts on this board, we should be at $450 per share. . So yes im a bit more impatient than I should be. Haven't had a chance to cash out since like January when the layoff rumors started.

 

[jerry33]

Lot of questions here. I think they may almost be better off ramping the model Y immediately as those will sell better than sedans. I don't know hardly anyone who wants a car anymore. Most want at least a CUV, if not an SUV or truck. I think Tesla should accelerate the Y with debt or a stock offering.

There are some things that throwing money at doesn't help. It's similar to adding programmers to a project that is already late--just makes it twice as late. Suppliers have to be lined up, production machines have to be ordered. Once delivered and installed, programming has to be done, alpha and beta production has to happen. No amount of money can speed the process up because they are mostly linear. If it could it would already be happening. I'm 100% sure that Elon would like to start deliveries tomorrow if it were possible, but it just isn't.

 

[PhaseWhite]

Tesla spend huge amount of effort on design, innovation and manufacturing, but they don't spend nearly enough effort to educate the public. At the minimum they should build a webpage called something like "Tesla Facts", explain everything with real data. They don't have to be perfect, just explain the things truthfully (for example, is EV actually dirtier than ICE vehicles? Tesla owners have to replace battery pack every few years? Tesla cars are unsafe? Tesla cars get on fire all the time?). They can even build the framework, let the fans to add and check the contents. All the common FUD could be addressed in this one place.

Right now the general public have no places to find the facts, they google online, what they see is usually paid bashing. Fans can try to explain things here and there, it's not as efficient as the bashing campaign.

This is why I think Tesla should consider advertising. It's a chance for them to set the record straight. Regular people just don't know much about EVs, or what they do know is misinformation.

The patterns I've observed in the online FUD and misinformation campaigns on social media look a lot like the same tactics used to help candidate Trump during the last US presidential election. I suspect they are actually backed by PR/Social Media firms that have been hired to do so. (Like the Internet Research Agency did on behalf of the Russians)