Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[anthonyj]

Just noted interesting word usage at the Y reveal.

"Actually, the Tesla Semi drove here nonstop all the way from the bay area."

Maybe I am reading too much into this but it is worded such that the Semi drove not Semi was driven.

Really doubt it. He would’ve made a big deal out of it. I’m pretty bearish on FSD tbh. I think it will be a really awesome and advanced driver assistance software but that’s it. I really want to see a working demo (not from 2016)

 

[Foghat]

So here is my take/musings....

1. Reveal served as an example of what EM was tweeting recently. Look at how far we have come! Reflect on this because there have been many accomplishments... in quantity, in products, in facilities etc. This was the spirit of the tweets that the SEC misunderstood IMO and he has reiterated it again for those that missed the meaning. Delivering a new model is just what we do these days.

2. Reveal of the Model Y was mostly an introduction of Tesla to a larger audience in China, soon to be the largest market for Tesla. The product was the new vehicle but it was also the celebrity and star-quality of the brand - an important reaffirmation for China.

3. Tesla has new influence on the board, a bit of a big and welcome deal, and that is also present in the reveal. No need to over-promise these days - maturity.

4. Reveal shows stock is good for the long haul so presuming an OK Q1 and once SEC is managed, more institutional dollars will be coming this year when the price is right.

5. Vehicle pricing shows confidence in continued progress in battery and pack cost controls.

6. Muted fanfare on model line expansion leaves room for attention to the BIG accomplishment appearing later this year with autonomous driving progress - speculation on timing of course.

7. Is Tesla going to redirect focus to SW development as the year progresses? Curious sparse mention of HW3 rollout and recent SW features like Sentry mode, holding fire?

8. Stock is in the doldrums and adrift as the market finds a new relationship less fixated on survival and debt and more on the truth of following a model of Apple or Amazon. Is the future pegged on a new paradigm on selling online or a new paradigm of the vehicle as platform for the SW? Maybe a floor wax and a dessert topping!

9. My nibbles for today have not executed as I still see confusion allowing the stock to drift lower until Q1, SEC, macro issues, MXWL and HW3 are in the rear view mirror. So many macro issues for the market this Spring, then the Summer nothing-burger time and then an exciting Fall as China develops and SW features (maybe) mature and then maybe an inrush of a larger investment community.

10. Can't shake the impression that there is something else coming.

Tesla is breaking so many records, I don’t think the general population has really been able to comprehend what is really happening with Tesla due to constant FUD taking over the mind space.

First new American car company to mass produce in 100 years. 100 years people.

First foreign owned company factory in Shanghai in 1000 years. That’s a millennium. That’s literally since the Dark Ages.

Zero “gas stations” to 12,000 superchargers globally in 6.5 years. 12,000. Competitors? Still zero.

We can go on and on, it’s so extensive...

Something big is happening and it’s baffling that this isn’t what our media is recognizing, putting the rest of Auto and energy business on notice for dragging their feet.

It is literally insanity that these American achievements aren’t front and center. This crosses all political persuasions and industries.

I can see why Elon’s baffled by this seemingly financial/media warfare being waged. Where are all the environmentalist, the champions of the clean air and water in Congress? What aren’t they standing on their pulpits demanding auto and energy transformation like Tesla is doing? It’s really not that hard, the solution is right in front of their faces and still, they’re talking about “needing action urgently.” Still at the same talking point from 20 years ago!

You have to have a real thick sense of irony/humor about it all, since otherwise you think we can’t help but go the way of the dodo bird.

 

[shootformoon]

The Y reveal actually shows tsla's execution pace is still several gears higher than the competition. The pricing and specs of 3&Y will take competition more than 5 years to even catch up. The FUD creator's job is easy but the real job for competition: innovation and execution is much harder.

The product side of the job is leading but the consumer education side is years behind. Y kills all current luxurious mid size SUV(and no foreseeable quick improvement for ICE due to its inherent limitations) if most consumers' awareness and knowledge is there. But I would say more than 2/3 of consumers in the addressable market are still clueless about the tesla car strength and reality.

FUD will be there. Our job is to educate the potential consumer. On the tsla side, a strong communication team is desperately needed.

About detail message, I have two suggestions:
1. The gas savings message in the order page, the estimate should be based on 100k miles or even 200k miles(still not half life time) instead of current 6 years(10k/y) . So many consumers have no idea how much they can save on gas.
2. the supercharger trip planner only has long range for 3, which is not adequate.

Actually an easy tip to build a strong communication team is to offer a "ideas/suggestions" link on the tesla webpage and have full time employees to monitor it and execute the ideas selectively. I am sure just the combined wisdom from this teslamotorclub will be worth a fortune to tesla. Some members could even foresee the problems. That is priceless.

 

[Vitold]

Just noted interesting word usage at the Y reveal.

"Actually, the Tesla Semi drove here nonstop all the way from the bay area."

Maybe I am reading too much into this but it is worded such that the Semi drove not Semi was driven.

That means current semi prototype has at least 400miles of real range.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

At least we made progress If this rate of delays continues, Audi will converge to last year's plan some time between late this year and never

Trying to imagine who would buy the eTron over the Y now. It has less cargo capacity, inferior charging infrastructure, roughly same range as the *standard* range Y, but for almost double the price. I ordered a long range AWD with FSD and 7 seats(in red) and mine is *still* more than $10k less than the entry level etron.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

That means current semi prototype has at least 400miles of real range.

Including over mountains.

 

[Chocochip]

did anyone comment that all model y color options appear to have blacked out trim including door handles?

Yes, MKBHD discusses it in his video of the unveil. He confirmed with Tesla that the production versions will have chrome-delete (or this matte black trim), which of course he loves. And so do I.

 

[KarenRei]

I can see why Elon’s baffled by this seemingly financial/media warfare being waged. Where are all the environmentalist, the champions of the clean air and water in Congress? What aren’t they standing on their pulpits demanding auto and energy transformation like Tesla is doing?

Majority of the US right: Electric cars are evil. Solar is evil.
Majority of the US left: Billionaires are evil. Cars are evil.

 

[winfield100]

Posting from paradise and logged on just to reply.
Were I live there are so many wind farms and more going up all the time.

My seatmate commented that were he lives they just approved a new 115 turbine wind farms.

Quoting him " These are much bigger turbines and blades than before"

If you visit Washington DC, imagine the Washington monument, 550ft tall, with 110 meter blades stuck on the side (360+ft) , then 11,000 more here there everywhere., and Tesla EV’s using some of that _free_ electricity

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Musk said that they would deliver Model 3 in 2017 and everyone in the industry and investors assume that to be in volume. Tesla struggled to deliver 1,000 cars in 2017 and didn't break 1,000 car production a week until well into 2018.

So... you’re saying they met the original goals. What random other people assumed they would do has no bearing on that statement.

(Of course, as you later mention, they failed to meet the accelerated goals. Which is why I said in another comment that that was a bad idea and they shouldn’t do that again)

 

[Curt Renz]

Chicago Tribune - 12 minutes ago: As 'Webb boys' make $20 million bet on new showroom, whole town's talking about ... how Tesla may doom dealerships

 

[Nathan]

I'm indeed tempted, but Tesla will have to fix the problems in my Model 3 before I give them another dime.

Curious as to your problems.
I’ve had a few minor problems like frunk wouldn’t open but it was fixed quickly. I now have about 8,000 miles so far and been loving it.

 

[shlokavica22]

Chicago Tribune - 12 minutes ago: As 'Webb boys' make $20 million bet on new showroom, whole town's talking about ... how Tesla may doom dealerships

Link for the EU based buddies - Outline - Read & annotate without distractions

 

[AudubonB]

OT

Anybody else notice that Saskatchewan is getting its Supercharger?

Jus' sayin'... Now, back to the Market!

Cheers!

Yes I did but.....

....I decided it's only because sadly I had to decline my invitation, thereby foregoing the opportunity of bellowing "Alaska!" before that Sassykatchewanny could.

And now, back to Market.

 

[Joe F]

Today they have the highest profit margins in the business even though they were seen as taking unnecessary risks 10-15 years ago.

Right, second only to their record breaking number of spontaneous car fires.

 

[winfield100]

So here is my take/musings....

1. Reveal served as an example of what EM was tweeting recently. Look at how far we have come! Reflect on this because there have been many accomplishments... in quantity, in products, in facilities etc. This was the spirit of the tweets that the SEC misunderstood IMO and he has reiterated it again for those that missed the meaning. Delivering a new model is just what we do these days.

2. Reveal of the Model Y was mostly an introduction of Tesla to a larger audience in China, soon to be the largest market for Tesla. The product was the new vehicle but it was also the celebrity and star-quality of the brand - an important reaffirmation for China.

3. Tesla has new influence on the board, a bit of a big and welcome deal, and that is also present in the reveal. No need to over-promise these days - maturity.

4. Reveal shows stock is good for the long haul so presuming an OK Q1 and once SEC is managed, more institutional dollars will be coming this year when the price is right.

5. Vehicle pricing shows confidence in continued progress in battery and pack cost controls.

6. Muted fanfare on model line expansion leaves room for attention to the BIG accomplishment appearing later this year with autonomous driving progress - speculation on timing of course.

7. Is Tesla going to redirect focus to SW development as the year progresses? Curious sparse mention of HW3 rollout and recent SW features like Sentry mode, holding fire?

8. Stock is in the doldrums and adrift as the market finds a new relationship less fixated on survival and debt and more on the truth of following a model of Apple or Amazon. Is the future pegged on a new paradigm on selling online or a new paradigm of the vehicle as platform for the SW? Maybe a floor wax and a dessert topping!

9. My nibbles for today have not executed as I still see confusion allowing the stock to drift lower until Q1, SEC, macro issues, MXWL and HW3 are in the rear view mirror. So many macro issues for the market this Spring, then the Summer nothing-burger time and then an exciting Fall as China develops and SW features (maybe) mature and then maybe an inrush of a larger investment community.

10. Can't shake the impression that there is something else coming.

11. Elon also said in 10 years drive a Tesla on _Mars_ answering audience comment

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Yes I did but.....

....I decided it's only because sadly I had to decline my invitation, thereby foregoing the opportunity of bellowing "Alaska!" before that Sassykatchewanny could.

And now, back to Market.

And now, because of that, even Kazakhstan’s getting one before you.

 

[VValleyEV]

Have been having a back-and-forth discussion over Tesla’s patent sharing with a friend/engineer/entrepreneur who does lots of business in China, and this led to discussions of Tesla’s patent sharing, specifically their legal requrements for “good faith” from someone who wishes to use Tesla’s patents. His standpoint is that these restrictions are all BS to thrill Tesla fanboys, that no one has signed up because these restrictions are a joke. I have read some of the details, and to me it just seems that to use Tesla’s patents you have to join the “we share all EV patents” club, which seems fair not BS. But I be neither attorney nor entrepreneur.

So IN THE ABOVE (long-winded) CONTEXT, can someone decode his latest response for me:
“ANSI/ISO/IEC/ITU IPR and Statement of Participation agreements are precise. They do not allow for anyone's IP to be "free". RAND terms where the royalty is zero is OK, but that does not EQ "free". If you won't sign a Statement of Participation agreement you are basically disallowed from making any contributions and perhaps even participating in those standards making bodies. If TSLA was serious they would do same (SoP), but I do not believe that they are.”

Thanks!

 

[voip-ninja]

Right, second only to their record breaking number of spontaneous car fires.

Does that change their profitability?

 

[KarenRei]

Moody's: Tesla's creditworthiness still strained. Rating B3 (highly speculative) (ED: Not a downgrade, was already B3).