Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Intl Professor]

I am not talking about what's legal. I want to know what is technically possible. Do you think FSD when it is declared feature complete, will it have a feature where it can drive without any person in the car in traffic?

Elon has said, I believe in interview with Kathy Woods (?) that we (Tesla) will be satisfied FSD is safe without a driver by end of 2020 but won't change our policy of continuous human monitoring without formal legal clearance until an indeterminate time later.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

So here is my take/musings....

1. Reveal served as an example of what EM was tweeting recently. Look at how far we have come! Reflect on this because there have been many accomplishments... in quantity, in products, in facilities etc. This was the spirit of the tweets that the SEC misunderstood IMO and he has reiterated it again for those that missed the meaning. Delivering a new model is just what we do these days.

2. Reveal of the Model Y was mostly an introduction of Tesla to a larger audience in China, soon to be the largest market for Tesla. The product was the new vehicle but it was also the celebrity and star-quality of the brand - an important reaffirmation for China.

3. Tesla has new influence on the board, a bit of a big and welcome deal, and that is also present in the reveal. No need to over-promise these days - maturity.

4. Reveal shows stock is good for the long haul so presuming an OK Q1 and once SEC is managed, more institutional dollars will be coming this year when the price is right.

5. Vehicle pricing shows confidence in continued progress in battery and pack cost controls.

6. Muted fanfare on model line expansion leaves room for attention to the BIG accomplishment appearing later this year with autonomous driving progress - speculation on timing of course.

7. Is Tesla going to redirect focus to SW development as the year progresses? Curious sparse mention of HW3 rollout and recent SW features like Sentry mode, holding fire?

8. Stock is in the doldrums and adrift as the market finds a new relationship less fixated on survival and debt and more on the truth of following a model of Apple or Amazon. Is the future pegged on a new paradigm on selling online or a new paradigm of the vehicle as platform for the SW? Maybe a floor wax and a dessert topping!

9. My nibbles for today have not executed as I still see confusion allowing the stock to drift lower until Q1, SEC, macro issues, MXWL and HW3 are in the rear view mirror. So many macro issues for the market this Spring, then the Summer nothing-burger time and then an exciting Fall as China develops and SW features (maybe) mature and then maybe an inrush of a larger investment community.

10. Can't shake the impression that there is something else coming.

I think the next big ball to drop will HWV3, followed by a very rapid improvement in autonomous capabilities.

Dan

 

[MarcusMaximus]

btw, if reservation numbers are high, there is an always option to fast-track MY production timelines ..
IIRC, something similar happened after M3 reservations ....

Yaaaaa, that turned out to be a terrible idea. Let’s not do that again.

 

[KarenRei]

https://www.linkedin.com/in/jigarshahdc
The US Energy Storage Market Kicks Into High Gear

Okay, some guy with no connections to Tesla. Now his source is?

 

[voip-ninja]

btw, if reservation numbers are high, there is an always option to fast-track MY production timelines ..
IIRC, something similar happened after M3 reservations ....

I'm not sure what you mean since Tesla did not hit either their original goals or their accelerated goals for M3 production. Accelerated production and alien dreadnaught were supposed to have provided for 5K+ M3 a week in Dec 2017.

I do think Tesla have been burned soooooo many times by over-promising and under-delivering on dates that they are playing it safe this time, but I definitely wouldn't assume that this will be the time that they deliver early, or even on time for that matter.

 

[Pezpunk]

4 October '18: "We plan to reach full production by the end of the year" (88 days)
15 March '19: "We plan to reach full production in 2-3 months." (60-92 days)

Great job there, Audi.

ehhhh do we Tesla bulls really have room to poke fun in that department?

 

[Vad42]

I'm thinking It looks so much like the 3 they should have just made this instead.

You know, I think I agree with you. I don’t see the point of both. They not different enough. I was underwhelmed by the event, but I’m digging the Y look and specs. I think that will be replacement for my current ICE cuv in 2021. I really could have used it this year. I have a model 3 deposit, but no point to get it at all. Y makes more sense at this point.

I think Elon got so burned by overdesign and complexity of X, that he didn’t want to make the same mistake with Y. I think he might have gone too far the other way, by being too safe.

I can’t wait to see the pickup. I hope it’s “not safe” in design aspects.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

I'm not sure what you mean since Tesla did not hit either their original goals or their accelerated goals for M3 production. Accelerated production and alien dreadnaught were supposed to have provided for 5K+ M3 a week in Dec 2017.

I do think Tesla have been burned soooooo many times by over-promising and under-delivering on dates that they are playing it safe this time, but I definitely wouldn't assume that this will be the time that they deliver early, or even on time for that matter.

As I remember, Tesla actually did hit at least most of their original goals. Everybody just forgot about said original goals after they came out with the planned accelerated ones.

 

[anthonyj]

I think that Elon has finally come to appreciate the term, "under promise and over deliver."
While the communications behind why Tesla could suddenly afford to make the $35k Model 3 via store closings was a debacle, they announced the $35k version after they had started making them, not months in advance.
My feeling is: They're saying late 2020 for the Model Y, but I suspect they will be making them earlier than that.
The speculation on the Model F (Freight Truck) being manufactured in 2019 as evidenced by the Shanghai Gigafactory rendering is likely true. (Model A will be after that, so we can have S3XY AF.)
Anyhow, back to my original comment, I think he's learned to underhype to instead surprise.
March 15th as the Ides of March is a bear trap. He undersold it at the Y reveal, and he's gonna spring the trap in a little bit.

It won’t be S3XY AF. It will be UR S3XY.

 

[Pezpunk]

Pretty deep frunk on Model Y

Private Private Link Model Y Launch_Vimeo 1 hour ago

View attachment 386679 View attachment 386680

makes sense, since the car is stretched vertically. that thing is going to store an incredible amount of cargo. family of four will have no problem whatsoever using that as their long trip car.

 

[SebastianR]

OT: It is the 15th so March is half ways done. Tesla Norway is delivering lots of Model 3. The Model 3 is now in the top 15 all time high-score for EV sales, if the month were to stop here there would only be 3 months in the past year with higher deliveries and best of all? Glovis is unloading:

(not a brilliant video, but the best I could find. Still many many cars....)

EDIT: in other news - Ford is cutting 5000 workers in Germany + more cuts announced for the UK... Ford is cutting 5,000 jobs in Germany with more cuts coming for the UK

 

[lascavarian]

Just noted interesting word usage at the Y reveal.

"Actually, the Tesla Semi drove here nonstop all the way from the bay area."

Maybe I am reading too much into this but it is worded such that the Semi drove not Semi was driven.

 

[scaesare]

Oh I get it...and we will see if 6 footers can sit in the second row. It’s a seriously sloped roofline.

Do you drive over 195 miles per day?

I see you're in Canada... aka The Great White North... aka "Brrrr."

Do you know what cold does to an EV's range?

 

[KarenRei]

ehhhh do we Tesla bulls really have room to poke fun in that department?

At least we made progress If this rate of delays continues, Audi will converge to last year's plan some time between late this year and never

 

[Vitold]

Another advantage of Model Y will be more legroom and headroom in the rear. Maybe, in time, will be offered with 2nd row executive bench seat.

I read that Chinese market likes more space in the second row so much that some cars are made longer for Chinese market.

 

[voip-ninja]

As I remember, Tesla actually did hit at least most of their original goals. Everybody just forgot about said original goals after they came out with the planned accelerated ones.

I hope you're not serious because if you are it will hurt your credibility. Musk said that they would deliver Model 3 in 2017 and everyone in the industry and investors assume that to be in volume. Tesla struggled to deliver 1,000 cars in 2017 and didn't break 1,000 car production a week until well into 2018.

After that initial 2017 promise Musk said they would move mountains to deliver VERY high volume in 2017 and said something outlandish like 50,000 cars delivered before the end of 2017.

I hope Tesla can execute on the Model Y. I'm not much of an SUV guy but the Model Y looks like a fastback Model 3, similar to a BMW X4 and I would love to trade into one.

As I mentioned in another post though, Tesla is going to have to demonstrate competence at fixing the rattling problems in the Model 3 I just paid $62,000 for in September. So far they have not demonstrated much competence to me in the service area and I won't reward that by throwing another sweaty wad of cash at them.

 

[MartinAustin]

Kiiiinda. But the $2500 is fully refundable.

It's still an order.

When you confirm the order, which happens because Tesla is ready to build your car and you tell them to proceed, the money becomes non-refundable.

This has been Tesla's process for years.

So it is a definite move away from the Model 3 situation, where you could reserve a position in the line to order.

I expect they're doing this because they don't want to take buyers away from existing cars.

 

[Cherry Wine]

I'm going to start keeping a running tally of these trades, but for now, $56M in block trade buys executed so far today:

Money Flows: Buying on Weakness - Markets Data Center - WSJ.com

 

[Curt Renz]

Electrek - this morning: Tesla unveils design of Gigafactory 3 in Shanghai, announces ambitious capacity

 

[Chocochip]

I'm thinking It looks so much like the 3 they should have just made this instead.

I was actually thinking that while checking photos of it earlier. The Y is what the 3 could/should have been if it were a hatchback. Possibly not as tall.

But yeah, the more I look at it, the more it grows on me, and I feel I disliked it initially simply because my brain kept comparing it to the 3. But it's a good-looking car on its own. It's not supposed to look "macho", the same way that the X didn't look as aggressive next to the S. It's a CUV, it's meant to carry families or parents with kids from A to B safely and efficiently. And it will.