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Bullish AF but the market doesn't seem to have caught onto it:

Tesla is asking employees to volunteer and help deliver 30,000 cars before the end of the quarter

An email from Tesla to employees states: "We need your help to make more progress in volunteer sign ups. We have to deliver 30,000 more cars in next 15 days."

Even if you want to pretend that was 30k globally in half a month, that'd be bullish. But Tesla's employees who don't already work on delivery are overwhelmingly in the US. This may well be a 30k domestic delivery goal by the end of the quarter.
I'm skeptical about the 30k "more" number - unless most of these are in EU/China.

It is possible that out of 30k, 20k+ are in EU/China (including ones still on ships). A lot of those will remain undelivered. In US, where it is actually possible to have employees volunteer in large numbers, but only in CA - are they delivering SR/SR+ ? Not sure they have made so many of those.
 
Tesla got $2600 (Canadian) from me last week for the FSD, and another $2600 from my brother this week.

Today Tesla also got an order for Model 3 SR+ from our friends who just returned their leased Prius C (just checked: starts at $22k). Their Model 3 is at least CAD$50k+ before incentives and is to be delivered in "2-4" weeks. It seemed like it was a no brainer for them, and the only question they asked me to advise on was whether to go with basic or SR+ config.

I think many people underestimate the value of "Tesla" the brand. It seems like it already sounds much "cooler" than Mercedes or BMW to most of the people. Even for an adult non-tech savvy family in their 50s, and even with all the FUD surrounding Tesla.

The above is just an anecdote, but I would have never thought in early 2014 when I first got into Tesla and TSLA, that this is where we would be in 5 years in terms of both Tesla the company (exceeded my expectations) and TSLA stock price (essentially unchanged).

I wonder for how much longer I would be able to keep accumulating TSLA at bargain prices...
 
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I think it's more likely a combination of 7k/week production + 14k undelivered inventory.
BTW, I rarely see the glass half empty position you typically post but it seems your civility while being poked at in the lions den is to be applauded. Just a little.:)

Thank you for the kind words... Appreciated...
But I'm afraid in this case, I see the glass as WAY less than half-full... Sorry.. :-/

OTOH, you can't tell me you didn't chuckle - at least a little - when picturing the bear riding around on the the tricycle... :)
 
I think this has to be global delivery really, It seems unlikely Tesla could have built up such a bottleneck in US delivery given many of the MR/LR cars ordered immediately upon the price cuts should have been delivered quickly. Still a positive sign for Q1 deliveries. Q1 end inventory/transit could well end up lower than guided.

Here's the U.S. deliveries data (S+3+X) from Alpha Hat:
  • Last two weeks of Q3: 5,500 and 10,100
  • Last two weeks of Q4: 9,000 and 11,000
Do we have a good idea about how many Model 3's are on the 5 remaining ships?

If it's 3,000 each then that's 15,000 units left to deliver, plus 15,000 in the U.S. and Mexico.

Should be similar to the end of Q3 push in the U.S., but with "Delivery hell" in Europe and China.

Q1 deliveries could be even higher than 30,000 if there's an unexpected increase in new orders in the last 2 weeks, for example because the Medium Range got discontinued.
 
Did you catch the pop dance/disco that GM did with their Volt promotion ? Perhaps you are getting confused what a tech company does vs a 100 year old company.

Welcome to a tech company with growing pains ;)

No, missed the party... Dang it!!
But if was a "promotion", that implies to drum up sales, with the huge inflatable floppy tube-guy on the lot too...
Makes sense, make a party of it...

But this is "deliveries"... Implies just need to deliver already sold cars to customers...
Even if that IS the case, odd that you need people to volunteer... Are they not being paid?
30k sales of $40k-$110k cars, and we can't pay people?? That sound right to you?

We were so slow we were closing stores two weeks ago, and now we have 30K cars to deliver??
Again, what of ~any~ of this makes any sense to you?
 
I saw on twitter they were delivering 200 cars a day in the shanghai Tesla distribution center. How is that even possible from one location?
When we had the rushed deliveries here last year, this is how Tesla did it.

We got slots one hour apart (may 90 minutes, don't remember). They got all the people in the slot together and gave a demo / handoff. We were about 10 in the group. They did this from morning 9 to evening 6 - for over 100 deliveries per day.

My guess is in Shanghai they would just have 2 batches of 10 people each. Deliver 10 batches a day.

ps : In the batch I was in there were 6 cars. But later days, they had more than 100 deliveries a day.

WA State EV Sales Tax Exemption Updated
 
I'm going to take a back of the envelope stab at this. First I want to filter out S,X sales -- say 20k total. And say 10k of that is in that 30k number reported today. So 20k M3s left to deliver globally. Now, how many M3s have been delivered globally thus far. Is it reasonable to assume that 15k in NA and 30k INTL? Then minimum 65k M3s and 20k S,X for Q1. Seems like a reasonable and conservative approx to me... could very well be higher by another 10k M3s.

People?
 
Dang. This was from an article only a month ago, said the bill passed the first vote allowing it to go to committee. It said that first vote was along party lines with Dems for and Republicans against, and that both houses have a Dem majority. Where did it get stalled?
Tesla direct sales in New Mexico gains ground as "Tesla Bill" gets approved

There were multiple bills, one in the Senate, one in the House, each with its own sponsors. The House bill was DOA from the start, never got a single committee hearing. The Senate bill, which was heard early on in a Senate committee which Tesla owners showed up in force at and which we testified at, won 4-3 on party lines.

But the next Senate committee scheduled to hear the bill never had the votes, and so it was not brought before the committee just to avoid a bloodbath and media fiasco (and opportunity for the dealers to gloat). And then things went into closed-doors mode for weeks. Tesla tried to get support from the Governor but she, who just got elected this past November, was too focused on the optics of lots of legislative wins and probably was not confident a Tesla bill would win, so she didn't want that on her record--is my educated guess.

In New Mexico it turns out the auto dealer thing is not a Dem vs Rep situation. It is not partisan. You are either owned by the dealers or you are not. If you're owned, they make it difficult for you to, er, shall we say, do anything that would disappoint them. Most elected officials are somehow beholden to the dealers, it seems. Campaign contributions, votes, support during elections, etc. Often the dealership is the biggest employer in some of the towns in an elected official's district. You don't cross the big guns, and dealers are usually big guns. And they have been at this for many decades.

I think the current Texas fight will come here to NM. This is a fight to the end. Or it will wind up in the courts, and that could delay an outcome for years. The dealers know exactly what they're doing.

Finally the other problem in New Mexico is the chicken-and-egg problem. Prospective, aspirational Tesla buyers often wanna buy a new 3 here, or some other Tesla, but then get scared off by the lack of service centers and stores. So that has held back sales here. We have maybe 700-800 owners in the state. At the current uptake rate of 3 sales we will probably pass 1000 owners statewide in a few months. But to a politician, in a state of 2.x million citizens, a constituency of 1000 anything is a tiny speck, so tiny as to not make any noise, and not to cause any problem. The dealers have been downplaying the number of Tesla owners here too, making it sound like we're a spoiled, entitled little niche group of whiners who can well afford to have service in CO or AZ. Politicians unfamiliar with the issue (almost all politicians) hear that and go, huh, minor issue, I don't need to stick my neck out for Tesla, NEXT?

Just the other day I was talking to a well-known Tesla bull investor who runs a mid-sized fund, and he was telling me look, if you want New Mexico to win, you owners gotta form a PAC, raise $2-3 million, and go to town, advertising and protesting and rallying like hell and getting the word out about how bad the dealers are. I'm like, sure, you wanna gimme the $2-3 mil?
 
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