German press release is out on the car market last month. No absolute numbers yet, but they mention a 453% increase for Tesla over last year which implies 2367 deliveries in March.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
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Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
They were likely supply limited (they could make only so many cars in the first two months of Q1) and wanted to deliver inventory closer to the coast and to the ports (Benelux) and make a real big splash in Norway, the EV leader of Europe.
Although it may appear to the uninformed as merely equivalent to Waymo’s current capability, all of us here realize the magnitude of doing it with a far, far cheaper and already in mass production vehicle.
Interesting new Tesla motor patent
Tesla's 'rotor geometry' patent hints at more efficient electric motors
Tesla's 'rotor geometry' patent hints at more efficient electric motors
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
So if Europe totals are around 23k as @KarenRei suggests, and 8 ships went to Europe, this suggests 2,875 cars per ship on average. (3,000 if the first ship was only half full as widely reported.)
What I find weird is that 8 ships went to China too, but estimates are only in the ~10k-15k deliveries range. Were they much smaller ships, or were they only partially loaded, or are we underestimating the China numbers?
Yes, and two different options on Tesla’s order page for every vehicle, at $3k and $5k, that may see a boost in take rate with a confidence inspiring presentation.
Maybe disappointing given our high expectations, but still very solid numbers for Germany. Don`t forget this is almost 2x the cars in Q1 than what Tesla sold in the entire year of 2018 over there.Disappointing. But the rest of Europe was so good that it doesn't matter. Europe beat my expectations easily.When everything is added up, it should be nearly 23k.
The best German year for Tesla was 2017.
They sold 3331 cars.
So, in one quarter that record is already broken with the 3596 sales.
The Germans will start to see more and more Tesla's on the roads which is a great thing.
Demonstration also can diminish ability of a fair amount of reviewers to talk down AP as ~”basically just adaptive cruise control with lane keep assist features we’ve been seeing on cars for some time now,”
and
that “study” that claims Tesla is something like 22nd out of 22 self-driving programs... some brief video excerpts of the day could make the silliness of that “study” dramatically easier to spot for a casual observer.
and
that “study” that claims Tesla is something like 22nd out of 22 self-driving programs... some brief video excerpts of the day could make the silliness of that “study” dramatically easier to spot for a casual observer.
My best guess is just as many cars went to China, but due to the import hiccups and a generally tougher environment in terms of bureaucratic braking, a larger number of cars had their delivery slipped into Q2 and that's where the lower Chinese estimates are coming from?
Looks smart of Tesla to drop this news just before PD report. That report is going to get a ton of articles, and there’s a reasonably good chance the AP/FSD event announcement will be mentioned in quite a few of them.
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
Makes sense.
There's one anecdotal counter-indicator though:
Kelvin Yang on Twitter
'"Nobody in delivery team left before midnight" -- This is what's been happening theses days in Tesla China, for which I hope TSLA holders can appreciate.'
'"The quarter has concluded perfectly" they say'
'"Nobody in delivery team left before midnight" -- This is what's been happening theses days in Tesla China, for which I hope TSLA holders can appreciate.'
'"The quarter has concluded perfectly" they say'
Plus Elon explicitly praised China deliveries as well:
Elon Musk on Twitter
"Amazing work by Tesla Delivery teams, especially in Europe & China! Most insane logistics challenge I’ve ever seen. Thanks also to many country & city officials for your help this weekend! Super appreciated."
"Amazing work by Tesla Delivery teams, especially in Europe & China! Most insane logistics challenge I’ve ever seen. Thanks also to many country & city officials for your help this weekend! Super appreciated."
Is a 'perfect' conclusion to the quarter, with 'amazing work', consistent with 5k-10k China units stuck in transit due to the customs mishap?
I suspect "yes" is a valid answer though.
Where did you get this 10-15k figure for China?
BTW Portugal q1 S3X 479 units
source: Tesla Europe on Twitter
China GF to be finished this summer according to workers!
Tesla's China factory under construction - Global Times
Tesla's China factory under construction - Global Times
Tesla confirms new full self-driving computer is in production, will demonstrate capability this month
April 19th, mark your calendar
“Tesla announced today that its new full self-driving computer, previously known as the Autopilot Hardware 3.0 upgrade, is now in production and the company will hold a demonstration of the new capabilities later this month”
“With a number of very exciting developments coming in the weeks and months ahead, Tesla will host investors on the morning of April 19th at our headquarters in Palo Alto to provide a deep dive into our self-driving technology and road map.”
While the event is presented as being for investors, it will be webcast for everyone to see.
Tesla described what will happen on April 19th:
“Investors will be able to take test-drives to experience our Autopilot software first-hand, including features and functionality that are under active development. Investors will also hear directly from Elon Musk, as well as VP of Engineering, Stuart Bowers, VP of Hardware Engineering, Pete Bannon, and Sr. Director of AI, Andrej Karpathy
April 19th, mark your calendar
“Tesla announced today that its new full self-driving computer, previously known as the Autopilot Hardware 3.0 upgrade, is now in production and the company will hold a demonstration of the new capabilities later this month”
“With a number of very exciting developments coming in the weeks and months ahead, Tesla will host investors on the morning of April 19th at our headquarters in Palo Alto to provide a deep dive into our self-driving technology and road map.”
While the event is presented as being for investors, it will be webcast for everyone to see.
Tesla described what will happen on April 19th:
“Investors will be able to take test-drives to experience our Autopilot software first-hand, including features and functionality that are under active development. Investors will also hear directly from Elon Musk, as well as VP of Engineering, Stuart Bowers, VP of Hardware Engineering, Pete Bannon, and Sr. Director of AI, Andrej Karpathy
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Disappointing. But the rest of Europe was so good that it doesn't matter. Europe beat my expectations easily.
Didn't the same number of ships go to Chia as Europe? If the available capacity was the same, interesting...
I think it's important to keep in mind that the people who received a Model 3 in Q1 in Europe are all reservation holders, and they all went for the higher-end, expensive versions. This says almost nothing about the organic demand of the Model 3 in Europe.
People who are not obsessively following Tesla online (and can afford a Model 3) are just now starting to see the cars on the road, or in their neighbour's driveways, or in adjacent parking spots. There will be a lot of "What's this car?", "Is this that new electric one I heard about?" "So, they're actually making these now, and they're selling them here?" "Weren't they bankwupt or something?", and most importantly "How does it drive?", "I should go for a test drive".
I expect the demand to keep increasing throughout this year as more Model 3s become visible in Europe and as more (affordable) versions become available. Call it the Norway phenomenon, where it suddenly dawns on the greater population that EVs are actually practical, and can be charged in many places, conveniently, and they're super-fun to drive.
And then Bjørn can make more money from views on his channel, and he won't have to sell his underwear to keep wifey happy.
People who are not obsessively following Tesla online (and can afford a Model 3) are just now starting to see the cars on the road, or in their neighbour's driveways, or in adjacent parking spots. There will be a lot of "What's this car?", "Is this that new electric one I heard about?" "So, they're actually making these now, and they're selling them here?" "Weren't they bankwupt or something?", and most importantly "How does it drive?", "I should go for a test drive".
I expect the demand to keep increasing throughout this year as more Model 3s become visible in Europe and as more (affordable) versions become available. Call it the Norway phenomenon, where it suddenly dawns on the greater population that EVs are actually practical, and can be charged in many places, conveniently, and they're super-fun to drive.
And then Bjørn can make more money from views on his channel, and he won't have to sell his underwear to keep wifey happy.
Swedish Q1 totals from Transportstyrelsen:
Model 3 1149
Model S 174
Model X 53
These are numbers of vehicles that were registered during Q1.
Following are the details per month:
January - total 40
Model S 31
Model X 9
February - total 72
Model 3 8
Model S 57
Model X 7
Mars - total 1264
Model 3 1141
Model S 86
Model X 37
Model 3 1149
Model S 174
Model X 53
These are numbers of vehicles that were registered during Q1.
Following are the details per month:
January - total 40
Model S 31
Model X 9
February - total 72
Model 3 8
Model S 57
Model X 7
Mars - total 1264
Model 3 1141
Model S 86
Model X 37
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