Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[FS_FRA]

Brexit extension until 31 Oct. UK will almost surely be taking part in EU elections again, paying dues again, etc.

(Please, no "Brexit good / Brexit bad" stuff, this is just a macro news report )

How about no more posts that don’t have a direct Tesla / $TSLA reference?

My suggestion applies to ALL here, not picking on you directly!

 

[FS_FRA]

FYI, EU does imperial gallons. So its not a 1 for 1 comparison to the US gallon..

US Gallons (Liquid) to UK Gallons conversion

I used WolframAlpha for the conversion, not sure what is the default there for $/gal...?

But thanks for the heads up.

 

[Antares Nebula]

We had the week of the bad d

Your post's mention of 290 reminded me of a previous post mentioning someone took 50k calls at I think about 290. If it goes north of there that person will make a fortune in a short time.

I think those were expiring next week, 19th. Could be lucrative. The following week, 26 April calls (or puts) are the ones to get though.

 

[Antares Nebula]

How about no more posts that don’t have a direct Tesla / $TSLA reference?

My suggestion applies to ALL here, not picking on you directly!

The relation to TSLA that @KarenRei was pointing out (I think) is that a hard Brexit in the near term would have been a macro event that could effect all stocks, including TSLA. Now that that overhang has been removed, we can focus on TSLA specific events. Similar to how the trade discussions is a macro and Tesla specific (tariff) issue.

 

[anthonyj]

"...states with stricter standards might have to create new rules against buying cars from other states. "

Well, this could get ugly.

They are talking about restricting gas guzzlers from other states, not Tesla

 

[ReflexFunds]

Trump administration about to try to reverse auto emissions policy and take the country backwards.
Wondering how this will affect Tesla, if at all ?


Automakers Plan for Their Worst Nightmare: Regulatory Chaos After Trump’s Emissions Rollback

On paper these new emissions limits will kill 20,000-40,000 people per year in the US if applied nationally, and that's before global warming damage. How does the media let this go with so little focus or outrage?

 

[neroden]

TE is a mix of ~30% gross margin solar and ~0% gross margin storage.

I call this sort of measurement "bogus margin" rather than "gross margin" because it's economically meaningless.

In terms of economic gross margin, it's obvious storage has a positive gross margin, and we don't know how high that gross margin is. Some artifact of GAAP is stuffing fixed costs into the bogus margin (probably time-based depreciation). Can't get a real clue as to the real gross margin until the economies of scale have been deployed.

 

[LordAstinus]

...you're now on my ignore list...

You must be late, I can't see who you're talking to... But I'm trying hard to guess... Well, not really...

 

[Todd Burch]

Ok I’m trying not to get overly optimistic about this early quarterly conference call...help me.

Positives:

-Traditionally an early call is bullish.

-It’s right after a positive news event (we know the FSD event will be positive or else they wouldn’t have it). Why schedule bad news right after a positive event and kill momentum when you could instead let the good news soak for several weeks?

-Carsonight has been a good source in the past and says the GF has been humming, inconsistent with reported vehicle production. He says he doesn’t understand the disconnect. I don’t believe the theory that Tesla is stockpiling packs (looks bad on financials/hurts cash availability). So perhaps cells have been going to commercial (Powerpack) and/or retail (Powerwall) storage projects. Consistent with Elon’s “year of Tesla energy” statement at Model Y event. Perhaps also consistent with why the Q4 guidance gave a slow M3 ramp, not indicating 7k/week in Fremont until Q419?

-FCA deal.

-Possible recognition of additional FSD/EAP income (Advanced Summon) plus additional FSD deposits.

-Maxwell news (even if no acquisition, perhaps news that their tech is being incorporated into the GF).

-Wording in P&D report saying “negatively impacted” instead of “negative”.

-If Q1 was obviously not going well and it was evident to the company early, there might have been time/resources to put more focus on the Tesla Energy side to make up for the problems on the auto side.

-Elon’s “stay positive” tweet.

Negatives:

- Known P&D report info, primarily poor X/S deliveries. Modeling auto results using historical Tesla Energy results makes the financials look poor.

-X/S layoffs.

-Downward price adjustments: “DiscountGate”.


Perhaps the Q1 financials don’t look good, but there is so much upcoming good news that Tesla believes this news will overshadow bad quarterly numbers? For example:

-AP3 Hardware in production and very positive progress. Level 4 AP is TRULY and demonstrably in sight.

-Verygreen’s report of “Raven” and “something else” indicating a likely S/X refresh (better performance, longer range, perhaps other changes).


In an attempt to keep a realistic balanced view, who can provide some reasons as to why this report being this early would NOT necessarily be bullish?

 

[KarenRei]

The relation to TSLA that @KarenRei was pointing out (I think) is that a hard Brexit in the near term would have been a macro event that could effect all stocks, including TSLA. Now that that overhang has been removed, we can focus on TSLA specific events. Similar to how the trade discussions is a macro and Tesla specific (tariff) issue.

On top of its major impact on general European financial health (read: sales, and particularly high-end sales), the UK is the largest untapped Model 3 market in Europe, and one which Tesla plans to move into in a few months.

 

[KarenRei]

As for the ER announcement, bears will call it a transparent attempt to get people to look to a distant future and past a horrible present.

My view is that terrible expectations are baked into the Q1 ER. I expect quite strong margins. Yes, EU earnings for a given model are lower than in the US, but the EU has an exceedingly rich (only AWD and P) mix, vs. Q4 which was overwhelmingly low-MRs. Ignoring further improvements in production costs since then. I haven't calculated it yet, but I imagine China is the same situation. S&X sales used to be dominated by the very low margin 75D (AFAIK single digits), which was since eliminated - so even though the higher-end variants got cheaper over the course of the quarter, we're looking at higher-margin vehicles.

A negative on the books will be layoff-associated costs.

Unknowns will be the (much debated here) "were they stockpiling packs?" issue, whether any Fiat revenue is recognized, same for CA and other ZEV credits, whether Tesla Energy is finally starting to pay off, whether any FSD revenue is recognized, etc.

A Raven announcement would be expected to cause a big stock jump, since the biggest concern right now is over S&X sales.

 

[neroden]

Curt or Neroden or anybody that can chime in;
I have an IRA and a Roth but none of the funds available through our company's retirement plan hold any Tesla as far as I can tell. When I asked our broker, he wasn't much help. Can an individual divert Roth monies into ARKK?

You can invest an IRA or a Roth IRA in pretty close to whatever you want. That's the "individual" in "individual retirement account".

Company plans (whether "traditional" or "Roth") are different. You can invest them in what your company wants to offer you (often with high fees), and nothing else. I think of them as a trap, because they usually have terrible investment choices, and I feel more comfortable making my own mistakes than letting some company make the mistakces for me.

I get a company contribution so I may not want it to replace my Roth contributions but my expectation of where Tesla will go, it may still make it worthwhile.

 

[Donatas]

Talking about Trump... Fun fact: in Lithuanian we usually add suffixes to foreign names to be able to use them in different forms so 'Trump' here is 'Trumpas', and:

A coincidence? I don't think so...

 

[neroden]

It's been a lot more than that.

First they claimed that Tesla didn't use yellow caution tape, because Elon hated yellow (30 seconds searching on Google Imaged can debunk this), nor beeping forklifts because Elon hates the sound (a couple minutes searching on YouTube can debunk this).

When called out on this, Reveal apologized, issued a formal retraction, and haha I'm just kidding, they went straight into their next hit piece, alleging that Fremont is a safety hazard hellhole and is hiding injuries off the books. This triggered a Cal-OSHA investigation. The only thing the investigation found wrong was a single cord someone might trip over, and was fixed immediately.

Next Reveal came out with two sob stories - a worker legt permanently disabled due to fires started by welding galvanized steel (metal fume fever), and another who got an electric shock so powerful that it sent him flying through the air across the room. Except that metal fume fever is a zinc overdose causing flu-like symptoms and only lasts until your body metabolizes the zinc (a couple days to a week), and shocks launching people flying through the air like Superman only happens in cartoons.

On and on and on. There was a great article last year (Detroit Free Press I think) which noted how, despite their denials, Reveal's hit pieces precisely tracked UAW, down to quouting the same "experts" and focusing complaints on the same targets at Tesla (for example, a particular brand of adhesive) at the exact same time.

Yeah, it's trade libel. Tesla stopped suing over trade libels because their lawyers were really incompetent and weren't winning really easy cases (like the Top Gear case, which was open-and-shut fraud in a libel plaintiff's paradise -- how did they lose that one?!?). Maybe some time they will get better lawyers and go back to suiing over trade libels like this.

 

[Todd Burch]

Talking about Trump... Fun fact: in Lithuanian we usually add suffixes to foreign names to be able to use them in different forms so 'Trump' here is 'Trumpas', and:
View attachment 395799
A coincidence? I don't think so...

So is your name really “Donut”?

 

[Leo9]

Why is TSLA -3% premarket?

 

[Watts_Up]

The fine print does not allow it. Selling kits to other builder still counts towards the numbers.

From what I read, the VW ID and the Audi e-tron will share the same technology (batteries, motor, MMI Navigation, Pilot System...).
But I imagine that VW and Audi will have separate EV sales numbers.

 

[Tslynk67]

Why is TSLA -3% premarket?

Just spotted this and I have no idea

 

[schonelucht]

In an attempt to keep a realistic balanced view, who can provide some reasons as to why this report being this early would NOT necessarily be bullish?

You called? Of course I can.

If the FSD demo is more sizzle than steak ie, nothing more than a nice demo and Elon going on stage that this time they, really, really, really have all the right hardware in the car but that they are still waiting for 'software validation and regulators' expected in '3 to 6 months', then the stock price will pop for a few days and then enter a slow downwards channel again waiting over anxiety of the report. Wait two weeks to report and by that time the pop is totally eroded and then you come out with the bad report you have gained nothing and you are left with a net tanking movement. Come out with a bad report as the stock is still riding the high from a sizzling demo then at least you end up with a neutral stock movement. So basically pop + slow decay + drop is worse than pop + drop.

In reality, the timing of events is such an opaque signal that this forum tends to read way to much in it. And obviously it's somehow always a bullish sign. Meanwhile real signals get barely any mention. Maybe because so few are good?

 

[neroden]

To which point I happened on an acquaintance and when Tesla came up his immediate question was "where could it be serviced?" I tried pointing out that an EV doesn't need service like he is used to, but he wouldn't let up and felt he had made his point about the nearest Tesla service center being ~100 miles away.

Service center locations are a valid complaint, and are the #1 reason why people decide not to get Teslas in this area, but come on, 100 miles would be close enough. My nearest is more like 230 miles away, and it's too far. People here would be fine with 100 miles away.