Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[keydiver]

We don't pay insane rates per kWh like CA. I'd have to pay over $32k for 10kW to replace a $200/mth bill @ $.15/kWh

Last year I engineered 2 systems for friends in Port St Lucie, and their 10kw systems only ran a little over $8,000 for DIY. It's even cheaper now. That was 10kw of mono PERC panels, an 8kw Fronius inverter, rails, L-feet, lag screws, sealant, AC disconnect, and all wiring. Both of them are A/C techs, so had electrical licenses, but even that would have only added about $500. Won't Tesla do it for $2/watt? Also, don't forget that next you you can deduct 30% of the cost on your taxes. I think it's insane that everyone in FL doesn't have solar.

 

[Skryll]

We don't pay insane rates per kWh like CA. I'd have to pay over $32k for 10kW to replace a $200/mth bill @ $.15/kWh

I paid $18k after 30% tax credit in 2015, for a 10kW system without powerwalls. Sure you can do better than 32k for the same size system in 2024, unless you meant it is 10kW solar and two powerwalls as one system.

Also how do you only consume 1333kWh in a month, you don't have AC or an electric car I take it ? I consumed almost twice that in May. April which is the sweet spot in terms of heating and cooling I consumed 1700kWh.

Maybe also we consume more electricity because we did the following investments in the following years: 2016 replaced last gas car with electric, added three powerwalls in 2020, replaced our AC+Gas Furnace for heating with a Daikin heatpump in 2022, gas water heater replaced with electric heatpump based system 2023.

Only use for gas in our house now is the fireplace which costs and emits very little as it's rarely used.

 

[MartinAustin]

(nothing to do with the stock, but...)

I think it would be fair and just and right if the monthly $99 FSD payment also provided Premium Connectivity, so you didn't have to pay an extra $100/yr.

(Happy subscribers to Premium Connectivity... we are liking the FSD demo but not committed to subscription yet)

 

[dhanson865]

Last year I engineered 2 systems for friends in Port St Lucie, and their 10kw systems only ran a little over $8,000 for DIY. It's even cheaper now. That was 10kw of mono PERC panels, an 8kw Fronius inverter, rails, L-feet, lag screws, sealant, AC disconnect, and all wiring. Both of them are A/C techs, so had electrical licenses, but even that would have only added about $500. Won't Tesla do it for $2/watt? Also, don't forget that next you you can deduct 30% of the cost on your taxes. I think it's insane that everyone in FL doesn't have solar.

Would they do $2/watt? I don't know, they won't tell me on the website anymore. But the last time I could get pricing from them without a sales call was in July 2023 and it was $2.30/watt then

10.00 kW Solar Panels $23,000 (25 panels)
1 powerwall $10,000
Cash Price $33,000/$23,100 (after federal 30%) (projected savings $33,525 on a $165 mo bill in TN, and no those savings aren't the payback math, that's expected savings above payback during the life of the system)

and that does include installation but not any unexpected costs they would add after a site survey.

I can't remember if the projected savings was including the $7,000 for the powerwall or not, either way it's a big win and a single powerwall would hold my house for several days even in a worst case.

If TSLA was still at $400+ a share I'd have already pulled the trigger on a system. I'll pull the trigger eventually, just can't do it now without selling shares I'd rather hold.

 

[capster]

I mean it as a joke because this one worker said it at the airport. "We are required to work 26hrs a day sometimes".

But sounds like taking to my uncle the min work week for most workers like those in construction is 60hrs a week. They give people salary pay here, and expectations are 12 to 14hr days.

In 2019, the per capita productivity of China was 60th in the world at 11.69 international dollars vs the US being 6th at 73.70. List of countries by labour productivity - Wikipedia

Working hard is all well and good, but doing so in a system that effectively deploys initiative, capital and information as well as labor is even better.

 

[GatorMeat]

I paid $18k after 30% tax credit in 2015, for a 10kW system without powerwalls. Sure you can do better than 32k for the same size system in 2024, unless you meant it is 10kW solar and two powerwalls as one system.

Also how do you only consume 1333kWh in a month, you don't have AC or an electric car I take it ? I consumed almost twice that in May. April which is the sweet spot in terms of heating and cooling I consumed 1700kWh.

Maybe also we consume more electricity because we did the following investments in the following years: 2016 replaced last gas car with electric, added three powerwalls in 2020, replaced our AC+Gas Furnace for heating with a Daikin heatpump in 2022, gas water heater replaced with electric heatpump based system 2023.

Only use for gas in our house now is the fireplace which costs and emits very little as it's rarely used.

Every year or so I check. I got my ridiculous Tesla approved installer powershare quote of $3500 when my meter is outside my garage and the panel on the same wall inside my garage, and am now convinced all local solar companies are absolutely bonkers. I also got solar and powerwall quotes last month. $3/watt is the best I found. I'm in the panhandle and one company added thousands for travel including $500 for the powershare install because I'm 1hr45m away from their office. Also the Tesla approved Powershare installer tried to steer my to buy Enphase batteries. Maybe this is why Tesla is giving a $2,500 credit now for CT instead of forcing you to pay ransom to their 'approved' installer.

 

[spacerfc]

In regards to Boeing/other space companies and hopefully, the mods don't delete my post, but a lot of people like to compare Tesla with SpaceX, but just maybe, is SpaceX more successful/focused simply because they have Gwynne Shotwell at the helm vs. Musk and there is little/no distraction there? I don't think many people would agree that she could be the CEO of SpaceX and everything would be running fine and humming along.

SpaceX only appears to be more successful than Tesla because there's a lot less FUD about them. They have their share of setbacks (for example cancellation of DearMoon, delay of Starship, etc) and obstacles (rising Chinese competition, very high valuation, uncertainty about Starlink demand, labor disputes, etc). But it's hard to generate FUD about them since:
1. It's a private company so there's less attack surfaces
2. There's no short interest since its stock is not publicly traded
3. There's no NHTSA plasters recall all over the news, if there's a defect it just gets worked out between professionals.
4. Their investors share Elon's vision, no idiots like KoGuan Leo or the guy trying to overturn Elon's comp package
5. Elon has absolute control of the company via 70% voting shares.
6. The field they're in is fairly obscure, need some knowledge about rocket science (really engineering) to create effective FUD.

While Gwynne Shotwell is absolutely a big reason why SpaceX is successful, I'm not sure Tesla doesn't already have the same ingredients for success. It's just not focused on a simple person, since Tesla is an order of magnitude larger than SpaceX.

From where I'm sitting, Tesla has much larger upside than SpaceX if they can get FSD and Optimus working, alas some Tesla investors are determined to throw this away just to spike Elon.

 

[spacerfc]

BTW, people who're envious of SpaceX's success today don't know SpaceX's growth was once stalled as well. That was in 2019, when the # of launches SpaceX conducted decreased sharply YoY (13 launches in 2019 vs 21 launches in 2018). Guess what Elon did? Yes he fired 10% of the employees... He also already fired the leadership team of Starlink in 2018 because they were too slow.

So 2019 is kind of dark for SpaceX (there were other setbacks in Crew Dragon program for example), but it also planted the seed for today's success: They started launching Starlink in 2019, and also started building Starship in Texas.

So yeah, like the saying goes, it's always darkest before dawn.

 

[samppa]

My "premium connectivity" in the Tesla just ran out. It's about 10 USD a month to keep it and I primarily use it to be able to access Spotify directly from the car, instead of having to go through phone - bluetooth. I paid - please don't laugh at me - about 160 kUSD a year ago for my Model X Plaid, I am rather well off and not particularly cheap. Still I am very hesitant to pay 10 usd a month for an internet connection in the car. I don't like monthly fees for a "nice to have". So this makes me wonder about the take rate for FSD, which is about ten times as expensive. Maybe different for people who commute long distances everyday, I bike to work, but I am not certain we will see a majority paying for FSD. Do we know already? Sorry if I haven't scrolled back all hundreds of posts if this is already discussed.

Premium connectivity gives you live view of sentry cameras from your phone. No way to do that without premium connectivity.

 

[MC3OZ]

Still I am very hesitant to pay 10 usd a month for an internet connection in the car.

We save $100 per week driving 2 EVs and mostly charging on our own solar, (petrol was $120 per week driving 2 ICE cars)

That pays for a lot of $10 per month, and lots of things are $10 per month these days,

I intend to have FSD drive me around in my own car, when I am too old or lazy to drive. I'll also tell my daughter not to bother getting a licence,

Most people will pay for stuff that makes their life a bit easier, safer, more interesting. or more entertaining. Because take out safer, easier, interesting and entertaining, the rest of life is pretty ordinary.

 

[jw934]

Baidu has released a video promoting Tesla using their map in China.
The map has features I have not seen before on my Tesla, including identifying bus lanes and a countdown timer for the light turn to turn green.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1797491806206378075

 

[CitizenKane]

Premium connectivity gives you live view of sentry cameras from your phone. No way to do that without premium connectivity.

I see. I tried that once but it seemed to consume a lot of battery and I never really saw it as very important.

 

[CitizenKane]

I think premium connectivity is a no brainer. Its massively, massively worth it. Spotify is great, live traffic updates are a nice bonus, and decent connection for streaming netflix if I'm at a supercharger is the cherry on the icing on the cake.
$10 a month. So $120 a year. $1,200 if you keep the car a massive ten years. On a $50 car purchase, its a rounding error. I cannot understand anybody *not* having it tbh.
And I'm a work from home semi retired guy who isn't stuck in rush-hour commutes or frequently supercharging.

Yea, maybe I AM cheap Live traffic updates are reasonably relevant but I didn't think Tesla did a great job on those TBH and there are other free ways to get that functionality. I use superchargers a few times a year - I charge at night when I sleep - so I rarely used Netflix or apps.

 

[cliff harris]

I think the reason you, and many people do not choose the premium connectivity is because psychologically, most people dislike ongoing monthly payments. I just gave in and paid the extra to avoid amazon prime adverts, and it was stupid that I had not done so before...
I even bought FSD, here in the UK, where it is basically useless for now, because I prefer lump-sums to monthly payments.
Looking at the maths, Tesla should definitely sell lifetime premium connectivity for $1,000. I bet a lot of people would add it at purchase time, and unless everyone keeps their Tesla longer than 87 years (very unlikely), its still a win for Tesla. They could even sell it as '10 years of premium connectivity' to cap the risk.

Its all a rounding error compared to FSD, assuming it continues to improve, and to roll out to the rest of the world. I see a lot of hints that there is progress regarding FSD in China, and also in Europe, from various X accounts.

 

[FEERSUMENDJIN]

I wish they would add the saving from people like me who charge on Solar. Having Solar in San Diego ( SDG&E sucks) and a Tesla is fantastic

Solar and a Tesla is fantastic in Scotland, so I can imagine how magic it would be in SanDiego, especially inland away from the coastal haar.

 

[aubreymcfato]

Solar and a Tesla is fantastic in Scotland, so I can imagine how magic it would be in SanDiego, especially inland away from the coastal haar.

For solar it's now become very cheap also here in Italy. If you have an EV it becomes a no-brainer financially, if you can pay the sum up front.
The only thing is that Tesla sells its solar and PW at a premium: if you go with chinese storage it's cheaper. But if you are eligible to virtual power plants program or similar then Powerwall probably pays for itself much quicker.

 

[FEERSUMENDJIN]

How much will my $32k (in today's dollars) solar panels be worth compared to if I put $32k in an index for 25 years?
Solar just doesn't make financial sense where I live

In the UK we can sell our solar for double the price we charge our battery overnight, that is real sweet. But really, I just installed solar as I am an inveterate virtue signaller. That is why I bought an EV too.

 

[Buckminster]

GME up 80%
NVDA up 3%

 

[CitizenKane]

I think the reason you, and many people do not choose the premium connectivity is because psychologically, most people dislike ongoing monthly payments. I just gave in and paid the extra to avoid amazon prime adverts, and it was stupid that I had not done so before...
I even bought FSD, here in the UK, where it is basically useless for now, because I prefer lump-sums to monthly payments.
Looking at the maths, Tesla should definitely sell lifetime premium connectivity for $1,000. I bet a lot of people would add it at purchase time, and unless everyone keeps their Tesla longer than 87 years (very unlikely), its still a win for Tesla. They could even sell it as '10 years of premium connectivity' to cap the risk.

Its all a rounding error compared to FSD, assuming it continues to improve, and to roll out to the rest of the world. I see a lot of hints that there is progress regarding FSD in China, and also in Europe, from various X accounts.

This is exactly it. I was happy (stupid) enough to load the car with everything possible when I bought it, including FSD which will probably never be usable until I change car in a couple of years, but I just don't like to commit to monthly payments.

 

[Christine69420]

This is exactly it. I was happy (stupid) enough to load the car with everything possible when I bought it, including FSD which will probably never be usable until I change car in a couple of years, but I just don't like to commit to monthly payments.

Ive also had full FSD on a car I later sold...don't mind very much since I am a software developer and understood the risk better than many. And Tesla needed the cash at the time...

But not buying Premium Connectivity I do not get. It's like handicapping your own car. Traffic data is very valuable since I live outside a large city. Sentry mode use so little battery - used it for a week last winter when flew to the Canarys. Hardly any power loss at all on my TMY. The sattelite map view is very helpful when visiting new places. Netflix and browsing the web nice whenever I have to wait in my car. Not only charging - but ie. when I take my mum to the doc. And Ilisten to Spotify so much - many podcasts (miss you Rob) in addition to my music.