Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[NicoV]

I may have missed it, but was there any mention in either the ER or CC about future revenue from the pooling with Fiat Chrysler?

Yes Tesla confirmed it is confidential, so we will not get the actual amounts.

 

[pz1975]

Sorry if this was posted before but I can’t keep up with the thread anymore.

Citron's Left says he is no longer long or short on Tesla

 

[PANN]

I had to go back and review communications again. Seems the statement from Tesla was later transformed into "most" stores closing by media. But considering that Tesla said only "small" number will remain, this is not far from accurate interpretation. I forgot that Tesla said this initially, not Elon, but there are also references to Elon repeating it, such as Tesla is closing all its stores so you can have a $35K Model 3

Either way, seems like Tesla was not super clear and did not object to media's interpretation in a timely manner, so there's a room for improvement here.

IMHO there's no mis-interpretation by media on closing most stores - Elon thought most people would choose 35K SR and no other way to reduce cost except closing most stores to offset the low margins of SR. Luckily after Tesla opened the order page, most people chose SR+, so Elon tried to walk back the statement.

In hindsight, Elon could have done this much better to avoid the unnecessary chaos, but personally I gave him high respect for making the 35K SR a very appealing car (with glass roof and etc), it's like a economic suicide for the mission. A rational businessman would have made the 35K SR very undesirable to avoid all these (as Gene Munster suggested publicly a few times), but Elon didn't. I found it's easier to understand Elon by always reminding ourselves that he's in for the mission not the money, when we try to analyze his actions.

 

[Artful Dodger]

$2.5bn equity raise in 3Q19 which we anticipate may come from strategic sources

Lol, I think this guarantees that the Model Y assembly line gets build in a tent at Fremont.

Thanks for the review of the AJ/MS note. Cheers!

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Thank-you for your kind reply. I have no data (noone is allowed to escape) but I think that if 2 market makers trade their short positions, they can avoid the FTD reporting requirement indefinately.

We'll get lot's of opinions on that, but again, no data. Market makers short selling is a virtual black hole: information goes in; nothing ever comes out.

We either wait this out until Tesla can do stock buy-backs from profits (about 5 years), or we move TSLA onto a different (non-US) exchange, where the regulators do their jobs and aren't looking for a plum appointment after 'retiring' from public service.

Regards

Technically, all information that goes into a black hole is stored in its event horizon. Not sure how this helps you, though.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Technically, all information that goes into a black hole is stored in its event horizon. Not sure how this helps you, though.

dang, I was trolling @KarenRei with that'un...

 

[FS_FRA]

I think Musk, Ellison, and Saudi’s can raise $3b by themselves

I’m sorry, but F*** the Saudis

 

[Fact Checking]

Don't believe the hype. There are no plans in place and those that are will be discarded, changed and mutilated as new circumstances present themselves. This company will never enter a steady state without a change of leadership. Look no further for evidence of this than the number of ships currently on the water. None. Zero. Zilch. Come June it's once more going to be all hands on deck for a mad dash and there will again be some kind of excuse ('we just launched SR for Europe' seems a convenient one), some kind of pat-on-the-back-sorry-you-are-incredible leaked email from Elon and then the next quarter will roll on again.

For those trigger happy to disagree : I am making not a single value statement in this post. It's just factual observation.

The why is irrelevant, the result is the same. June is going to be a mad dash once more and the promise of Elon that it won't ever happen again is just that : an empty promise.

Looks like they doubled down on the 'we want to reduce the wave deliveries' idea in the earnings call, to the extent that they guided for a loss in Q2 due to that.

They might not be able to execute it in a single quarter, just due to the sheer capital cost of it, and they will probably still try to push available unit to customers at the end of quarters, but do you still call it an "empty promise"?

 

[Fact Checking]

It just asserts further how unreasonable (and selfish) Musk is.

Firstly, you are jumping to conclusions: by all means it could be an overzealous SEC holding up any agreement.

What does it (truly) cost him to yield "yeah, I'll have every tweet Tesla related reviewed"?

Secondly, this would very likely result in a blatantly unconstitutional court order even if Elon agrees to getting every tweet reviewed - which unconstitutionality the SEC didn't even try to argue against in the lawsuit, instead they ran away from the argument.

Do you want to apply Soviet Russia Justice in the United States of America, just because of your emotional, irrational dislike of Elon?

Third, Elon communicating with Tesla customers directly, immediately is an asset to Tesla in my opinion, and the SEC's request to effectively force Elon off Twitter is simply another channel to harm Tesla.

Fourth, and most importantly, even if Elon agreed to getting all tweets reviewed, the SEC could and likely would still go after Tesla: him getting every tweet reviewed just moves the layer of responsibility to Tesla. Look at the very long list of ridiculous 'complaints' the SEC had about ~20 of Elon's tweets, all of which were factually correct and totally harmless. The SEC also told the judge that they are 'troubled' by Tesla's conduct - which just shows that they really don't want to go just after Elon, but after Tesla too.

With a 'review all tweets' agreement in place the SEC could have launched a contempt motion just as much on those pretenses, just next time directly against Tesla. The only 'solution' would be for Elon and Tesla to communicate on social media only very sparsely and defensively - but social media is one of the main remaining open channels of PR that Tesla has left, given how hostile the mainstream media is to them.

I.e. in reality this is a regulatory attack against Tesla's presence on social media. It's not about Elon's ego - he gave that up back in September when he drastically cut back on his tweeting.

I.e. you appear to have absolutely no idea about the legal depth of this attempt of the SEC unconstitutionally trying to censor both Tesla and Elon, and why both Tesla and Elon are fighting the SEC's flawed and dangerous interpretation of the settlement.

We're all prisoners of his ego.

We are all prisoners of your misunderstandings.

But then, I knew that, so I don't really have right to complain.

You have no right to complain because you are factually wrong on multiple levels.

 

[dqd88]

I found a weird bug on NOA as I'm driving home if I put on the wipers manually it will kick-off navigate on autopilot and say poor weather detected.

Can someone else with a Model S with NOA try and see if they can replicate this?

Please move to appropriate board/thread.

 

[dqd88]

A note of caution when trusting Elon on anything related to FSD. Full FSD Robotaxi is minimum 3-4 years away. they can probably bridge the gap a little by requiring a licensed not drunk driver to watch AP, but full "go to sleep" FSD is years away.

At a certain point it goes from cute Elon Time to just overly confident/hubristic which hurts the business (see the decision to not raise capital when stock was 350+)

Know someone that can do better?

 

[RobStark]

Meanwhile in Mexico

Lexus to open stores in Mexico to feed appetite for luxury, hybrids

Lexus said Thursday that it will open its first stores in Mexico's three largest cities — here in the capital, Monterrey and Guadalajara — in the fourth quarter of 2021

The Japanese automaker said it expects to be the "greenest" high-end brand in Mexico by using its hybrid technology to reduce emissions and increase fuel economy.

In the luxury market, Lexus could have a similar advantage with its extensive hybrid portfolio. Not only are gasoline prices higher in Mexico than in the U.S. generally, but local governments in the massive Mexico City metropolitan area limit the circulation of gasoline-powered vehicles during smog alerts. Hybrids and electric cars are exempt from those limits.

While overall auto sales in Mexico fell from a record high of 1.61 million vehicles in 2016 to 1.42 million last year, the luxury auto market continues to grow.

Last year, BMW sales rose 15 percent to just over 25,000 vehicles, and Mercedes-Benz was in second place with 16 percent growth to about 20,500 vehicles. Sales at Jaguar Land Rover more than doubled last year, while Volvo and Infiniti posted more modest gains

 

[dqd88]

Hopefully some young person 10 years from now could say the same about "wished I could buy Tesla when it was in the 240s".

Once TSLA leaps into a new range they should do a 10/1 stock split.

 

[Artful Dodger]

If the Maxwell tech works, there would be no need to switch to 2170s. Improved 18650s would allow reuse of the current pack/ module design. Including a capacity improvement even if they deleted one or both of the front double stack modules.

The new bty will require at least some re-engineering since Maxcells shed about half the heat per electrical watt output vs existing Panasonic cells. Who knows, it may even be possible to make the required changes in software (less heat is easier to deal with). And the larger infrastructure of the pack could be retained since its still an 18650 form-factor. So agreed, it should be a quick switch-over.

Cheers!

Cheers!

 

[RobStark]

Meanwhile in India....they buy a lot of cheap cars but not many luxury cars.

Mexicans buy more BMWs and Mercedes than Indians buy all luxury cars.

Complete Indian Auto Sales Analysis 2018: CV sales cross one million mark - ET Auto

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

I’m finally caught up on this thread, which is rare for me nowadays.

My biggest concern after the P/D report, and still after the earnings report, is S/X demand. It isn’t as bad as the Q1 numbers make it look, but it needs to be better. The Raven drivetrain should help a lot. 370 miles of range is mind-blowing & enables nonstop trips that previously required a Supercharger.

The new suspension has the potential to differentiate S/X from the 3/Y, set Tesla apart from other luxury brands as a tech leader in yet another area, and give buyers a more luxurious ride that many want at that price point. This is a slower, longer-term driver of demand, since buyers need to be educated on it— unlike the range improvement, which is immediately clear to buyers.

Finally, the progress on FSD features should drive demand as well, especially for existing Tesla owners with pre-HW2 vehicles. Unfortunately, it doesn’t differentiate S/X from the 3, but it does differentiate pretty dramatically from other brands.

S & X aren’t growth areas anymore, but they’re still incredibly important to Tesla’s financial health.

 

[Fact Checking]

Is comparing to the NUMMI plant a fair comparison? Isn’t Tesla making more of their own parts (seats, motors, etc) compared to the other manufacturers just putting parts together?

It's highly unfair to compare 80s-90s NUMMI that primarily built cheap $15k-$20k Corollas with most of the power train made elsewhere and had most of the actual complexity built in external sub-assemblies, to Tesla's $40k-$120k vehicles and highly vertically integrated sub-assemblies and over 1,000 industrial robots.

Here's a prior post I made about the differences between NUMMI and Tesla's factory:

Nice Q1 estimates, congrats!

But let me push back gently against this awful NUMMI comparison you are trying to make, are you really trying to compare:

• $15k-$20k ASP simple to assemble Toyota Corollas assembled in the NUMMI plant in the 90s (which was what much of the NUMMI's output consisted of), where over 40% of the add-on value of the car (the drive train, etc.) was made elsewhere,
• and compare it to Tesla's $40k-$140k ASP units made in Fremont, which have not only much higher ASPs but much higher value-add and expected quality levels as well? With the S/X almost everything that isn't a commodity part is made at Fremont.

It's the ultimate apples to oranges comparison.

Looking at the labor force size should have told you already that the unit based comparison is invalid: NUMMI had only around 4,800 employees at its peak - while Tesla has well over 10,000 employees at Fremont, despite massive automation that utilizes more than 1,000 industrial robots...

A more fair comparison would be average (added-) revenue generated by employee. By that metric Tesla is already way ahead of peak-NUMMI, today.

I.e. the average per unit NUMMI value-add was perhaps $10k. The Tesla per unit value-add at Fremont is 4x-8x higher than that.

 

[azaz]

Zhelko’s criticisms of Elon have shown to be prescient over and over. Anyone calling him irrational should closely examine their own superbull biases.

 

[Fact Checking]

I naturally assumed Tesla insurance would be backed by a third party insurer. Is Tesla really looking to become an insurer itself? From what I understand there are hefty regulations around that business, especially on minimum capital etc.

Yeah, you might be right, and I have no idea what they intend to introduce - we'll see. I suspect they'll try to start simple, with low capital costs.

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

You have no right to complain because you are factually wrong on multiple levels.

Firstly, don’t attack @Zhelko Dimic. He’s been on this forum a lot longer than you have, and he’s been invested in TSLA a lot longer. He has a great track record of contributions and commentary, and is an asset to the community. Whether or not he is right on this particular issue— on which I take no stance— he deserves more respect than you are showing.

Secondly, he has every right to complain, even if you think he is factually wrong. It is important that this forum remain useful to TSLA investors by welcoming a wide range of opinions and investing experiences. If you believe he has made a factual error, respectfully correct it & leave it at that.

Thanks kindly.