Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[EVNow]

If the 469k initial minute buy had been interspersed, SP would not be fading like this.

 

[KarenRei]

Is it normal for all of the underwriters to have sell ratings and price targets below the current?

Wondering if this is a trap...

1. Underwriters set low price targets.
2. Stock falls.
3. Capital raise initiated at a low SP.
4. Stock rises.
5. Underwriters set high price targets.
6. Stock rises further.
7. Profit.

The dealer always wins.

 

[schonelucht]

Someone used this as an opportunity to unload - $34M in block trade outflows executed thus far this morning.

Let's wait for the price of the offering tonight and see if we've been had by a big player who knows more than we do...

 

[anthonyj]

Put some buy orders at yesterday’s closing price because TSLA likes to fill gap ups

 

[neroden]

FORM S-3
https://ir.tesla.com/static-files/bbe6381f-a241-4cb7-94c5-3df4a56d1f55

JUST IN: #Tesla files for potential mixed shelf offering, size undisclosed
Reuters Business on Twitter

Capital raise coming up.

This is the emptiest, most content-free registration statement I've ever seen. It doesn't even guarantee a capital raise at any time. All it says is that any bonds will have an indenture with US Bank National Association.

These are the actual filings for the convertible & stock issuances:

http://ir.tesla.com/index.php/static-files/a511670a-e3e5-470a-8096-06ec7ea8e693
http://ir.tesla.com/index.php/static-files/688cf252-c0d2-4da8-9b17-4dca8a4f7e29

They haven't priced them yet. No interest rates, no conversion prices, no stock prices. But apparently the underwriters have agreed to buy it all at whatever price it's priced at (!?!?)

Hey, you remember all of those short theories about Elon being a hair's breadth from a margin call due to owing surely a billion dollars (at least!), and this spelling the imminent doom of Tesla?

Yeah, about those theories...

View attachment 403255

So he's borrowed 507.5 million. At the usual 50% lending rate, that means his shares need to be worth $1 billion before he gets truly margin-called. So if the share price drops below $30, I guess he's in trouble. Yeah, not gonna happen!

HEADLINE: Shortsville Times

In a desperate attempt to save the company, Tesla tries to raise capital to buy more inventory !

Humorously, I actually think about half of the the cash will be used to increase inventory in transit. Add 20K model 3s to inventory-in-transit, to get to the correct steady-state level given shipping times == 1 billion dollars in cash. I guess the rest will be used for Model Y buildout etc.

 

[elasalle]

Hey, you remember all of those short theories about Elon being a hair's breadth from a margin call due to owing surely a billion dollars (at least!), and this spelling the imminent doom of Tesla?

Yeah, about those theories...

View attachment 403255

Nice find.
I think important to tweet this. Lot's of shorts thinking EM would get margin called at $213 etc. So atleast that FUD is over

 

[TheTalkingMule]

The key to Tesla solar is to have enough employees to actually install solar. Too many stories lately where people's project gets massively delayed and customer service ignoring projects. I am in the middle of convincing someone right now on Tesla solar and she is telling me her neighbors horror story. Also helped a MD get Tesla solar and same story.

Transitioning away from the in-person sales model was a massive undertaking. With bits and pieces of it still around and in the customer pipeline, one side of the business was effectively sabotaging the other. Installing solar is not a complex process....unless the installer makes it complex.

The hope is that these online sales will split the customer market and drive all the folks who understand solar and just want the damn thing installed to Tesla. Let the competition sit in livingrooms droning on for hours with everyone else. I'm fairly certain this new model will be effective so long as their centralized support has the resources needed and internal lines of communication are open.

Huge turning point for the entire industry. Tesla will jump right back to #1 in residential installs within 16 months.

 

[bdy0627]

Put some buy orders at yesterday’s closing price because TSLA likes to fill gap ups

At least it closed the gap with HOD yesterday.

 

[neroden]

Proxy voting starting. Need some recommendations on a few:

1. Election of Class III Director: Ira Ehrenpreis
2. Election of Class III Director: Kathleen Wilson-Thompson

Anyone know anything about these two?

Ehrenpreis has been a cleantech-centric VC investor for years; he is suitable as a board member.

Wilson-Thomspon was trained as a lawyer. She's African-American. Her full-time job is at Walgreens in Human Resources, so I suppose you can ask how she treats the employees there if you want to know what she's like.

 

[Beaver]

We can now expect good media coverage on CNBC and Bloomberg ...

I saw this after seeing the stock green. It is CNBC and a positive video of Giga1.
We went inside Tesla's first Gigafactory

 

[Causalien]

Nice find.
I think important to tweet this. Lot's of shorts thinking EM would get margin called at $213 etc. So atleast that FUD is over

I am curious as to how Elon is paying down the loans if all his compensations is in stocks.

 

[elasalle]

I am curious as to how Elon is paying down the loans if all his compensations is in stocks.

Hollywood Gigalo

 

[neroden]

Here is a serious NOOB question. Is there any way for a normal investor like myself to buy notes? Is there a ticker symbol or something?

Yes, there's a CUSIP number. Call your broker and ask for the convertible bond desk (which may be the same as the corporate bond desk, or may not).

You buy these things in units of $100,000 normally, just so you know -- if you have less money don't bother.

 

[neroden]

I am curious as to how Elon is paying down the loans if all his compensations is in stocks.

Oh, the loans are constantly increasing in size. Not a safe way to live, really. Most super-rich people do it, though.

 

[humbaba]

@ihors3 updated short interest in $TSLA

$TSLA short interest is $8.52 bn; 36.41 mm shs shorted; 28.54% of float; 0.58% stock borrow fee, new shorts @ 1.73% fee. Shs shorted are up 2.4 mm shs , +7%, over the last week. Shorts are down $189 in MTM losses today, but still up $2.73 billion in 2019 (a short squeeze cushion)

Ihor Dusaniwsky on Twitter

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

Bought 10 more shares this morning. I’ll let you know before I buy my 420th share so you can get in before the short squeeze.

 

[neroden]

I think it is simply because they think always showing a minimum $5bn liquidity (cash + current $1bn undrawn bank lines) on balance sheet will give confidence to investors and customers regarding their financial resilience. I doubt they plan for quarter end cash balance to ever reduce below the $4bn shown after this transaction.

That's not Musk's style. I expect them to immediately plow $1 billion into unwinding the "wave" by building inventory, and then whatever it takes to get Model Y going (which honestly might be more like half a billion).

 

[neroden]

Tesla Model 3 Effect - Chevy Dealers Discount 2019 Bolt Electric Vehicles Almost $10,000 In Race For Bottom Of The Market | Torque News

New article. One very concerning point is that they claim to have received a $2330 discount off a brand new, never driven, never displayed Model 3. Hopefully they’re wrong, or the discount was only to bring it inline with current pricing.

Since it was AWD LR, it could also easily have been a 2018. It's documented that most buyers are refusing to accept 2018 builds at the same price as 2019 builds (probably for future depreciation reasons). Tesla is sort of stuck dealing with that and had to discount.

 

[Causalien]

@ihors3 updated short interest in $TSLA


Ihor Dusaniwsky on Twitter

From this it looks like $314 will be a battleground as most short turn net zero. While $376 is the battleground for short margin call.

It'll be great for Elon to reserve that "one more thing" available immediately when the stock reaches that level. I just hope that Elon understands how to properly cause a squezze and not reveal anything prematurely or overhype other stuff.

 

[PANN]

That's not Musk's style. I expect them to immediately plow $1 billion into unwinding the "wave" by building inventory, and then whatever it takes to get Model Y going (which honestly might be more like half a billion).

That's all good. I really don't like the wave and all the delivery uncertainties and staff burns it caused.