Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[JRP3]

I think Munro still doesn't get it. He keeps going on about how awful the Tesla body is, but then makes it clear he is strictly talking from an ease of manufacturing point of view. He is aghast that a component is compounded of multiple parts when everyone else does it as a single cast.

While I don't have the knowledge and data to prove this, I strongly suspect that a good part of these "horrible body design decisions" are what go into making a Tesla have the lowest probability of occupant injury.

Munro doesn't understand why it's a good thing that the Model 3 would crash the same with or without the battery, thinks they should have used the battery pack as a stressed member

 

[Remus]

I.e. China can adapt to a trade war's effects much faster than the U.S. and maybe they decided to deal with a Democratic president instead - it's only 1.5 more years to wait.

traditionally a president from Democratic party tends to be more hostile to China.

 

[SO16]

Thank you for posting this. The full review is worth reading and sharing New Tesla Model 3 Long Range AWD 2019 UK review

Good article.

Don’t agree with this line though: “and – in no time at all – the EV market has moved on with new models to challenge Tesla.”

I wouldn’t exactly classify it as “in no time”.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

No way to know. US analysts seem to generally be of the view that China overplayed their hand in the letter they sent, intent on running down the clock on Trump's presidency, and not expecting such a strong, immediate response.

IMHO, if that's their strategy, it's stupid. If a different president inherits the trade war, I think few would rush to just give everything to China to get it over with. The political capital is spent in starting and escalating a trade war. If someone else inherits what Trump started, they don't take a political hit for saying, "We're working on wrapping this up, but it's probably going to take a while" and then sitting on the tariffs that the previous president started until a new deal is signed.

I think what China is running into is a US President that is not afraid to pull a negotiating trigger if he feels it puts him in a stronger position. Remember, President Trump is a businessman first and foremost. He has been a negotiator his entire adult life. I don't think he is at all concerned about his political future as much as he is putting himself in a stronger negotiating position. The question China has to answer is "Is he bluffing?". I don't think he is.

Is this the best strategy? Well, depends on who you ask. What the rest of the world is trying to figure out is a President that does exactly what he said he was going to do in the primaries. That is a new and different animal on the world stage.

Now, having said all that, I am in no way saying that the President's methods are the right ones. I didn't vote for the man. I am just saying that his actions are methodical and predictable and should not come as a surprise. China and the rest of the international economic community are trying to figure out how to deal with this new approach. Sometimes it seems to be a pissing contest between two playground bullies, but often times in big international economic negotiations that is exactly the way the parties behave. Like it or not. One big game of chicken. Who's going to flinch first?

Dan

 

[pnungesser]

hopefully. In an EV weight is important but not as important in a ICE car.

Yes, weight is less important in Tesla EVs. It does take more energy to accelerate a heavier car. That energy becomes kinetic energy in the moving car. But much of that energy is energy is recovered in regenerative braking. (85% has been quoted). All that genetic energy is lost as heat in the brakes of an ICE vehicle. That why increased weight is less critical for EVs.

 

[Doggydogworld]

If Model Y production is in Fremont, it will not reduce the Model 3 production capacity at Fremont. Tesla have already ordered/started manufacturing the Model Y production equipment - Model Y has its own new production line whether at GF1 or Fremont and will not cannibalise Model 3.

I'm certain they've ordered Model Y tooling, but firm orders for all the equipment? We'll see. Combining lines would be extremely "capital efficient", which is the new Tesla mantra. Conversely, if they plan to build Model Y on a completely separate 7k/week production line then it's insane to even consider Fremont.

But, was that before, or after, the leaks about the refresh coming? That certainly had to put a crimp in sales IMO.

S/X upgrade rumors have been around for 2+ years. If anything hurt S/X sales in Q1 it was not "leaks", but Musk's decision to launch v3 Supercharging for Model 3 only and leave S/X looking like yesterday's news. Model 3 was already a better vehicle and vastly superior value, the v3 launch unnecessarily added insult to injury.

 

[Tslynk67]

That's not fully accurate.

Firstly, the heat produced by incandescent light bulbs is an inefficient method of heating: a light bulb turns electricity into 100% heat, while a good heat pump will turn electricity into 200-300% of heat.

Secondly, while early LED's indeed tended to be too blue, today there's a wide range of LED color temperatures, all across the color spectrum:

Some "warm white" LED's are already painfully yellow.

OK, but we don't all have heat-exchangers at home... Yes, I'm aware that you wan get warmer LEDs now, but I'm not convinced they're much better for you.

Here's some blurb on it: You Likely Use These Eye-Destroying Light Bulbs Not Realizing They're Linked to Blindness

 

[JRP3]

I think what China is running into is a US President that is not afraid to pull a negotiating trigger if he feels it puts him in a stronger position. Remember, President Trump is a businessman first and foremost. He has been a negotiator his entire adult life.

Not a good one, as the NYT recently proved. He's been a BS artist his entire life. "Methodical" is not a word I would use to describe his actions.

 

[EVNow]

IMHO, if that's their strategy, it's stupid. If a different president inherits the trade war, I think few would rush to just give everything to China to get it over with. The political capital is spent in starting and escalating a trade war. If someone else inherits what Trump started, they don't take a political hit for saying, "We're working on wrapping this up, but it's probably going to take a while" and then sitting on the tariffs that the previous president started until a new deal is signed.

If anything the next president could be someone absolutely not concerned about Wall St. China will have less bargaining room.

 

[JRP3]

But much of that energy is energy is recovered in regenerative braking. (85% has been quoted)

Not even close. Maybe 60% at best.

 

[JRP3]

OK, but we don't all have heat-exchangers at home... Yes, I'm aware that you wan get warmer LEDs now, but I'm not convinced they're much better for you.

Here's some blurb on it: You Likely Use These Eye-Destroying Light Bulbs Not Realizing They're Linked to Blindness

Please don't use Mercola as a source for anything Dr. Joseph Mercola Ordered to Stop Illegal Claims

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Not a good one, as the NYT recently proved. He's been a BS artist his entire life. "Methodical" is not a word I would use to describe his actions.

Like I said, predictable and methodical. He has done and is doing exactly what he said he would do during the campaign. You can argue the wisdom of his actions but you can't say he didn't warn you. We'll see where it all ends up.

Dan

 

[nursebee]

Help wanted: How to Evaluate TSLA future- assumptions and data

 

[Causalien]

The outflow of capital from China is confirmed. A trickle at the moment but pretty important.Not just financial capital, but capital investment from multinational corps to build factories.

The main beneficiary of these shoukd be vietnam, japan, s korea, singapore and taiwan.

This might be the best outcome and unintended consequence of the trade war. Tesla should probably diversify its supply chain as well.

 

[JRP3]

Like I said, predictable and methodical. He has done and is doing exactly what he said he would do during the campaign.

Don't want to drag this out but this is simply untrue. Here is but one example:

“We’re going to have insurance for everybody,” Trump said in an interview with The Washington Post.

6 promises Trump has made about health care

 

[EVNow]

Like I said, predictable and methodical. He has done and is doing exactly what he said he would do during the campaign. You can argue the wisdom of his actions but you can't say he didn't warn you. We'll where it all ends up.

Dan

He also said we'll all have universal health care which is much cheaper and better. Mexico would pay for the wall. Etc etc.

The problem is in figuring out which ones are BS and which ones are real.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

He also said we'll all have universal health care which is much cheaper and better. Mexico would pay for the wall. Etc etc.

The problem is in figuring out which ones are BS and which ones are real.

Welcome to American politics. lol!

Dan

 

[Artful Dodger]

What I mean is once Tesla's line-up is complete (S,3,X,Y,R,Semi,Pick-up) I don't see new cars (as what we currently see as a car) in the future line-up

Don't forget the $25K car, which Elon mentioned in the Q&A session at the 2018 AGM:

Musk Says Tesla Could Build a $25,000 Car in 'Three Years' If It Worked Very Hard

It's been dubbed the "Model 2" (for the 2 in 25K), and some observers think it may redefine the "hot hatch" segment, a huge segment of the youth market.

Cheers!

 

[Causalien]

There's two additional things:

• Firstly, China is a 'special' partner: China is the U.S.'s contract manufacturing partner. By trying to hurt China Trump is hurting the U.S. in equal, sometimes worse ways. China has other ways to keep workers employed (their main goal) - U.S. companies do not really have other places to manufacture goods at. I.e. China can adapt to a trade war's effects much faster than the U.S. and maybe they decided to deal with a Democratic president instead - it's only 1.5 more years to wait.
  
• Secondly, if this China action was simply a diversion tactic, to divert attention away from Trump's taxes and crimes, then there's nothing China could have done to prevent this escalation. Trump would probably have found a way to 'escalate' the conflict even if Ivanka's companies were given a 1000 years monopoly in China.

I don't think Trump can sustain a China trade war for months, let alone 1.5 years, if he wants to get re-elected: the extra tariffs are primarily not paid by China, but by U.S. consumers and producers:

U.S. consumers and businesses -- not China -- bear the brunt of Trump's tariffs​

His polling result is up. So I am more and more inclined to think that the economy will not have too big of an effect on his votes.

 

[Maitri982]

Tesla's Capital Raise Offered No Real Benefit To The Company Or Its Suffering Shareholders

This analysis is so bad I don't even know what to say about it.