Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Tslynk67]

Man I am super nervous. I had a bad feeling ever since I saw the leaked email this morning. A third spending cut within just a few months? And the narrative of the email contradicted what Elon was saying on the Q1 earnings call i.e. that the losses were a one-off based on delays in shipping Model 3's overseas.

I am not selling any of my shares, I would rather lose them all, but neither am I buying any more until Elon and Tesla can show us some hard figures and evidence that there is strong demand, and there are clear ways to meet the demand.

To be honest, they should be continually looking to save money and become as lean as possible, that's not the problem, the problem is the necessary "10 months" comment.

I'm just pissed because I don't have any spare cash to buy more right now...

 

[2virgule5]

No

Any insights in what the next support could be? Not seeing a clear one below $217...

 

[Intl Professor]

That sounds really creepy. As if you're old enough to be their grandfather creepy. But hey, they're dating you. So maybe they have more financial sense than you're giving them credit for.

Enough of this ageist excrement. I'm forty years older than my wife. I didn't raid the cradle 15 years ago, she robbed the grave. But helps put my socks on with the sweetest smile.... And is likely to get three As this semester in her gerontology major! (In exchange for sock assist I help with proofreading papers.)

 

[farzyness]

Man I am super nervous. I had a bad feeling ever since I saw the leaked email this morning. A third spending cut within just a few months? And the narrative of the email contradicted what Elon was saying on the Q1 earnings call i.e. that the losses were a one-off based on delays in shipping Model 3's overseas.

I am not selling any of my shares, I would rather lose them all, but neither am I buying any more until Elon and Tesla can show us some hard figures and evidence that there is strong demand, and there are clear ways to meet the demand.

There should be spending cuts ever month. Tesla has been growing 50% year over year with massive spending budgets. Reigning in that spending is not only smart, but required.

 

[RoadsterPlease]

just bought 50 more shares at 218, great price imo. If DeepMind can beat people at starcraft, Autopilot will beat humans at driving and then nobody has to die in a car anymore I hope.

 

[qunqun]

bought [email protected]

 

[voip-ninja]

If Tesla starts gearing their decisions towards placating Wall Street they will simply start spinning their wheels with respect to progress which will ultimately slow the achievement of the "numbers" Wall Street claims to be needing in order to gain their favor and improve the stock price. It's a catch 22. Damned if you do and damned if you don't.

If you're not into this stock for the next couple of years at least then you probably shouldn't own the stock. It's going to be a roller coaster. We all know that.

Dan

"Everyone" knows that it's going to be a roller coaster ride? Even the longs that have relentlessly mocked, shredded and ridiculed anyone asking legitimate questions around TSLA execution over the past 12 months in the investor forum? I have to kind of laugh at this post, sorry but I do.

I considered dipping in for 100 shares of TSLA during Oct/Nov price drops and did a little bit of research. Had legitimate questions around TSLA execution, # of reservations being converted into sales, cash burn rate, etc. People were completely flambeed for even suggesting that TSLA might need to do another cash raise. Laughed out of the room.

I was completely mocked and ridiculed by the longs here who were boasting at the time that they had more dry powder to buy at $320 and treated anyone who disagreed with their assessments as idiots.

Well the institutional investors are dumping their stock now so you are "right" that it's going to be a rocky couple of years. Hopefully the car I overpaid $60,000 for isn't going to be a worthless boat anchor when I go to swap it out in another few years or need parts for it, etc.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

You'd be surpised hpw quickly the perception of those around you can change when it comes to the almighty dollar. I'd be curious to know what kind of car buyers your coworkers are. I've found the most common group that thinks Tesla willl go bankrupt are the Ford/GM/pickup crowd. Sooner or later that group will have to acknowledge they're wrong. Either way, Tesla isn't relying on that group for sales demand.

Yah. Nailed it. Or at least half are. Two others have bought EV’s as a result of a test drive in our first generation leaf. One bought a leaf and the other a Bolt. I can’t say that the reason they didn’t buy a Tesla is because they didn’t think the company would be around but I’m sure it was a contributing factor.

Although it is a concern of ours too we would still take the plunge if we somehow get the charging thing worked out.

 

[Krugerrand]

What? They don’t get slapped no matter what they do.

They executed q3 and q4 well and were rewarded handsomely with SP at ATH when general markets were crashing 20% from their highs.

Wallstreet was all over Tesla prior to Q32018 convinced no profit would occur or ever could without creative accounting. Oct 23, 2018 SP closed at $294.14. Oct 24, 2018 ER which was a beat and WS acting all surprised and oh, it’s a one time thing and they can’t repeat. Oct 25, 2018 SP closed at $314.86. SP went up and down for a bit but finally reached $354.31 by Nov 14, 2018. Continued to claw its way up reaching $366.60 on Dec 12, 2018 and then followed by a lovely, consistent decline to $295.39 by Dec 24, 2018.

So a little credit for a short period of time. Not ATHs for Tesla as you suggested. At this point TESLA should have been flirting with $400.

The DOW itself was all over the place during this time period. A high Oct 2nd, a low early Nov, then back down, then up and then down, down, down, down hitting its low right around Christmas. Tesla moved independently of the market until it didn’t in Dec.

Tesla Jan29 SP $296.38, Q4 call Jan 30, 2019. SP close Feb 1, $307.02. $317.22 was the highest it reached and it’s been downhill since then. WS called Q4 a miss! We talked about the manufactured miss here for days.

Tesla got negative credit for the Q4 profit while the DOW rose from Christmas until mid April, hovered, and then took its latest drop. Once again Tesla moved independently of the market until it didn’t, when the market took its very recent dump.

So on reflection two profitable quarters for Tesla and the SP finished where it started - artificially depressed, while the market ended up higher - in fact near its ATHs (with one panic sell in the middle). Wallstreet got what it wanted, threw a bone to the longs for a short period of time after Q3 and then started beating us over the head since Q4 profitability was announced.

Then along came the mixed bag of Q12019 and look where we are now. As if nothing of substance has happened at Tesla for a couple of years. As if Tesla didn’t prove they could be profitable. In fact if you hadn’t been paying attention and looked at the SP now you might get thinking Tesla was in big trouble.

 

[jerry33]

They do but the Model 3 would be considered in the "lowest rates of driver deaths" category. Less than 6 deaths per million miles.
Report lists cars with highest and lowest rates of deaths
Link is too old to have Model 3 but making an assumption that the Model 3 has logged more than 1 million miles and AFAIK, this is the first fatality, it would be about 120 times safer than a Hyundai Accent for example.

Breaking news: Over 1 Billion miles have been logged in Model 3's.
Tesla on Instagram: “Over 1 billion miles have been driven with Model 3 – thank you to all the amazing Tesla owners who got us here! tesla.com/3”
So 120,000 times less likely to die in a Model 3 than a Hyundai Accent.

The posting of one death 6,000 times does not equal 6,000 deaths.

 

[tivoboy]

Any insights in what the next support could be? Not seeing a clear one below $217...

~189/192. I think there will be support at $210. May shift around there a bit but we’ve opened the pocket down below $200 for sure.

 

[shootformoon]

Please read before using "a million times". This was the first april selling m3 in Europe. There were 10k+ inventory+intransit m3. Where are they?!

This has been discussed a million times.

April deliveries are ALWAYS crappy in Europe since vehicle transport ships don't yet have the technology to teleport themselves from San Francisco to Europe (see Vehicle Transport Teleportation Technologies). This is supposed to start smoothing out with the end of the "wave" and Tesla taking the short-term financial hit to begin constantly filling their delivery pipeline to Europe.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

There's a lot of speculation about Q2 sales and if you're a bear as someone said, this email could be viewed as a soft landing for guidance miss on sales and revenue. I don't know if thats the case. We'll find out in a month and a half.

But if they do miss delivery guidance again, and especially badly, they really gotta figure get a better handle on production foresight. 3 months isn't asking too much to give consistent guidance. Doesn't effect my view on the company, not selling a share. But man it gives ammo to the bears

 

[voip-ninja]

Heh heh. Many are interpreting the letter as essentially a guide to bankruptcy in 10 months if things don’t change. And why would they? Nobody has given any indication to the contrary. Most of the people we know who were admirers already talk about Tesla in the past tense no matter what we tell them. There is no PR department to tell them otherwise. If there is some ray of hope in the future no one is talking about it. People don’t want to buy an orphan and pretty much anybody who reads anything in the news about Tesla will tell you they are already done. What did they say in the last hit piece I read yesterday in Forbes? “The wheel is still spinning but the hamster is dead”. And no one to tell anyone otherwise.

Stunning to see a company like this without a PR department.

PR departments don't change the underlying financial reality of what's going on at a company. Should TSLA advertise? Probably. Should TSLA get Musk the hell away from TSLA for a year, also yes probably.

 

[humbaba]

sorry if this was already posted, but the preliminary NTSB report

https://www.ntsb.gov/investigations/AccidentReports/Pages/HWY19FH008-preliminary-report.aspx

So the semi was cutting across the highway and the driver did not see the semi and hit the trailer, shearing the roof off as it underrode the semi and killing the driver.

The question I have is how many times do non-Tesla vehicles collide with semi tractor-trailors performing this maneuver? And how many of those make national news? And how many manufacturer stocks plummet?

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Please read before using "a million times". This was the first april selling m3 in Europe. There were 10k+ inventory+intransit m3. Where are they?!

Ummm you realize that 10k is split between Euro and China with probably 1-2k of that going to US customers on the East coast as well as Canada right?

 

[traxila]

Like I reported yesterday the put options I had previously sold were exercised and I was forced to buy the stock at 420. My opinion is that this was not isolated but a strategy to cause multiple margin calls in retail forcing a huge dump of shares. I believe that is what we are seeing today, forced liquidations. Ordinarily I would say that if the shorts were smart they would start covering, but what the hell do I know about being smart with TSLA anyway? Should have bought puts after I covered the margin I guess....

Anyway this is probably an all out attempt to drive stock below 200 and trigger that famous margin call on Elon which I do not believe exists. Bought some more at 220.

 

[EVNow]

Please read before using "a million times". This was the first april selling m3 in Europe. There were 10k+ inventory+intransit m3. Where are they?!

10k+ in Europe ? May be there were 10k+ in EU and China … and we see some 5k deliveries in EU. Why is that bad ?

 

[Dan Detweiler]

"Everyone" knows that it's going to be a roller coaster ride? Even the longs that have relentlessly mocked, shredded and ridiculed anyone asking legitimate questions around TSLA execution over the past 12 months in the investor forum? I have to kind of laugh at this post, sorry but I do.

I considered dipping in for 100 shares of TSLA during Oct/Nov price drops and did a little bit of research. Had legitimate questions around TSLA execution, # of reservations being converted into sales, cash burn rate, etc. People were completely flambeed for even suggesting that TSLA might need to do another cash raise. Laughed out of the room.

I was completely mocked and ridiculed by the longs here who were boasting at the time that they had more dry powder to buy at $320 and treated anyone who disagreed with their assessments as idiots.

Well the institutional investors are dumping their stock now so you are "right" that it's going to be a rocky couple of years. Hopefully the car I overpaid $60,000 for isn't going to be a worthless boat anchor when I go to swap it out in another few years or need parts for it, etc.

Well at least you'll have a great looking boat anchor. Hope your day gets better.

Dan

 

[voip-ninja]

Well at least you'll have a great looking boat anchor. Hope your day gets better.

Dan

Hope my day gets better? I'm having a great day, Tesla's SP doesn't really factor into my daily mood at all.