Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[BornToFly]

@rdalcanto and @mulder1231, sorry to hear about your loss. I think a lot of people are in similar situation. Many are not on this forum.

Here are some of my thoughts, definitely not advice. I have never tried these, in theory this might work, especially #1. Remember #1 doesn't reduce your liability in case there is a big drop, it should prevent forced closing.

1. Buy some near term out of money Puts, which could reduce margin pressure with very small amount of money.
2. Sell a little bit shares to reduce margin pressure. Buy a bit long term out of money calls if you feel mad about selling now.
3. Don't panic, don't gamble. Plan ahead what you will do for each situation.

I used to have a different user ID, I warned many times about the danger of leveraged investment, especially margin. For those who used margin for whatever reason, they should set hard sell limits to stop out before it gets too bad. (not to stop out all position, but at least to reduce margin, before it's out of control).

OMG I think you saved my life! I was going to have to sell a lot of shares at a huge loss. But just by buying $4,816 worth of June 7 Puts at 150 SP my margin call goes away according to the margin calculator on Fidelity. It is all a game...

 

[ZsoZso]

People posting blind faith messages like the above without any clue to what the definition of level 5 autonomy is, does not hold any merit either!

To be clear:
1. I trust Andrej Karpathy and his team that in time they will be able to solve the software problem of full self-driving, including level5.
2. I even trust that they have a pretty good chance of being the first team in the world to get there.
3. But, anybody claiming that the current hardware as shipping now in Tesla S3X vehicles is sufficient to reach level 5, does not understand the requirements. Plain and simple, drive the car in slushy winter weather and the camera suit becomes unusable within minutes as you can observe on the rear view camera image yourself and also notice the message the car pops up "Autosteer Temporarily Unavailable". Without additional hardware to perform camera-lense self-cleaning on-the-go (aka wipers or water spray clean), the maximum level attainable is level 4.

Those, who clicked "Disagree" to the above, Please, do tell me how do you envision the supersmart AI NeuralNet (TBD) jumping out of the V3 Tesla ASIC processor, floating around the car and wiping the camera lenses using the Force like a good Jedi !

In my 30+ year career as a software developer (specialized in AI techniques applied to Molecular Modeling), I have seen my fair share of good, capable software, yet I fail to imagine how to make software do something for which the hardware capability does not exist.

Could this be retro fitted?

Possibly, but it would be rather costly. Just as pre-AP1 cars were too costly to retrofit with AP.
Problem isn't the cost of a few water sprayer heads, but the missing wiring and water piping for them inside the body of the car. That caries the prohibitive labor cost of retrofitting, as it would require massive dis-assembly and re-assembly of the car.

 

[bdy0627]

...and who are you?

Looks like a chocolate candy expert?

 

[Krugerrand]

Space Explorer Mike on Twitter
Ford Expedition Sled-Rollover Crash Test Credit: CarPro1993/YouTube

Yes, I laughed out loud. You can not make this kind of stuff up. And the second comment down was epic hilarity.

On a serious note, if any of you own one of these, you might want to reconsider unless flying without a parachute is a bucket list item.

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

https://electrek.co/2019/05/21/tesla-free-supercharging-sell-inventory-cars/#disqus_thread

Either way, I find it hard to recommend buying a Model S or Model X right now because I believe more updates are coming later this year, but that’s up to you.
-Fred

If you’re in the market for a car, in that price range, then what is your recommendation, Frédérique?

 

[Krugerrand]

However if I was big auto and big oil I would spend $10b to short this to 0. This kind of tech can’t get out.

Oops. Cat is already out of the bag. Take it from me, you don’t ever get the cat back in. Like ever.

 

[dww12]

Those, who clicked "Disagree" to the above, Please, do tell me how do you envision the supersmart AI NeuralNet (TBD) jumping out of the V3 Tesla ASIC processor, floating around the car and wiping the camera lenses using the Force like a good Jedi !

In my 30+ year career as a software developer (specialized in AI techniques applied to Molecular Modeling), I have seen my fair share of good, capable software, yet I fail to imagine how to make software do something for which the hardware capability does not exist.


Possibly, but it would be rather costly. Just as pre-AP1 cars were too costly to retrofit with AP.
Problem isn't the cost of a few water sprayer heads, but the missing wiring and water piping for them inside the body of the car. That caries the prohibitive labor cost of retrofitting, as it would require massive dis-assembly and re-assembly of the car.

Maybe it’s already there and just not turned on yet. I don’t know, but I find it hard to believe that Elon and Tesla have not thought through snow and rain yet but have already jumped to turning on the RT fleet.

 

[mickificki]

Those, who clicked "Disagree" to the above, Please, do tell me how do you envision the supersmart AI NeuralNet (TBD) jumping out of the V3 Tesla ASIC processor, floating around the car and wiping the camera lenses using the Force like a good Jedi !

In my 30+ year career as a software developer (specialized in AI techniques applied to Molecular Modeling), I have seen my fair share of good, capable software, yet I fail to imagine how to make software do something for which the hardware capability does not exist.


Possibly, but it would be rather costly. Just as pre-AP1 cars were too costly to retrofit with AP.
Problem isn't the cost of a few water sprayer heads, but the missing wiring and water piping for them inside the body of the car. That caries the prohibitive labor cost of retrofitting, as it would require massive dis-assembly and re-assembly of the car.

Supposedly the cameras are heated. Fwed alert: Tesla Autopilot: a look at the camera defrosters making the system work in the snow

 

[iFinance]

$TSLA APPLE WANTED TO BUY TESLA? Check out my video on it guys. This implies a $340 valuation for Tesla. 66% Upside!

 

[Carl Raymond]

Possibly, but it would be rather costly. Just as pre-AP1 cars were too costly to retrofit with AP.

There are two possibilities, the car has passengers, the car does not have passengers.

With ultrasonics, and with the considerable overlap between the rear cam and the rear facing side cams, the car pulls over. On screen, the system displays the dirty cam alert, identifying the problem cam.

If there are passengers, they are requested to clean the cam and offered a half price journey.

If there are no passengers, the car requests assistance.

Not a show stopper, especially with other ameliorating actions, such as always starting shift with clean cams, non stick sprays, mud flaps, the fact that people avoid travel in such weather when possible.

 

[Remus]

Appreciate your thoughtful reply.

I'll disagree about AWS. Microsoft's Azure and Google's Cloud Computing Platform are direct competitors to AWS. AWS is the best of the three, but the gap between them is much smaller than the gap between Tesla and other automakers.

One of the development teams reporting to me looked into using the various platforms and decided on Azure, back in 2015. It was good enough then to pick it over AWS for the cost difference, which was substantial.

I have no experience with shipping to comment.

I think the Tesla demand question is a fair one to be asking in this thread. I don't see that anyone has enough visibility to state, either way, where demand lies right now. However, the external signals indicate that Tesla has pulled some demand levers.

Why do you have to have "experience"? Shipping is part of the cost and providing free shipping pretty much means cutting prices. They are the first to lower the free shipping limit to $25 and all the pundits thought Bezos is crazy and they have no way to make money. Later they have prime membership, and for a pretty long time they fixed the subscription price and added services. All the while there was no competitors in sight.

They also upgraded free no rush shipping to free two day shipping, now they want to shrink it further, without raising prices. It does not seem to me anybody is breathing down Bezo's neck forcing them to do this.

AWS has a 7 year lead and they had been cut prices well before Azure was even there. I remember years ago when I was still in Microsoft, heard Microsoft PMs debating how to price the Azure offering. The AWS was just too damn cheap.

I remember in one instance several years ago when model S and X has several month wait time, someone asked Elon since the cars are in such a high demand why don't you raise the price. Elon's the answer was in the line of "the car is pretty expensive already". It looks like he was thinking from a buyer point of view, not the seller.

I agree that Tesla's different from Amazon, and I am not saying they definitely do not have a demand problem for all the models. But the Amazon story tells me that cutting prices may not necessarily means demand problem.

 

[dmckinstry]

I just can't keep up on thread for daily reading (even just skimming) anymore. So I'm only going to come around for the annual meeting, the P&D for each quarter, and quarterly conference calls.

Before leaving I'll give a brief (for this thread) review of my history with Tesla and TSLA.

I reserved my Model S in February of 2010. At that time I was thinking $50k or about there. As time went by I recognized that I would need much more than the base model. I wanted it for road trips, as well as daily driving. I had retired in 2008 and didn't want to be tied to a loan. The only way I could afford it would be by buying stock and hoping it went up enough. I believed in Tesla's mission. I figured worse case that I would lose my investment and never get the car. Even worse would be that Tesla would fail in its mission. In mid-2011 (about a year after its IPO) I discovered that the brokerage account in my TIAA-CREF retirement fund could be made self-directed. I gradually started selling off the stock in that account to buy TSLA. I then found that I could make my IRA a self-directed brokerage account as well. as well, so gradually started to convert that account to TSLA stock. By the end of 2012 that account was also all TSLA.

My wife hadn't been very happy about the $5k deposit I'd already made, but I told her I wouldn't buy the Model S unless/until the stock had appreciated to the level where I could pay for it with less than half the stock. In March of 2013, reports on Tesla and discussion on TMC were positive enough and I still had enough cash left to buy 200 shares at ~$36 a share and again in May another 100 shares at ~$56 a share. I was out of liquid assets at that point. This was purchased through Scottrade (now TD Ameritrade).

The cost basis for the TIAA-CREF account was about $33/share and the cost basis for the Scottrade account at that time was under $43/share.

By late May the stock took off. I did the arithmetic and said to myself that I had met my criterion for purchase. I sold enough shares at $94/share to pay for my 85kWh metallic brown Model S with nearly every option. Also the maximum number of years of ranger service, vinyl wrap, window tint. Extended warranty wasn't available in Washington State then. No performance, etc. At that time no sensors, no power folding mirror etc. were available. My wife couldn't have been more pleased and is even more vocal about the car than I. The big mistake I made was not waiting a few more months. If I had, I would have only sold about a quarter of my shares, and would have been able to buy my Model X last year.
Yes. I could still pay for the Model X even at today's diminished TSLA price, but I have a target minimum number of shares remaining.
I've been gradually increasing my TSLA holdings in TD Ameritrade since 2013. With my last purchase in pre-market this morning I increased that account by 10 shares at $201.36 and have a total in TD Ameritrade of 500 shares. The cost basis in that account to $127.41 per shares. Now I am completely out of liquid assets and will purchase no more more TSLA, unless a true short squeeze occurs. And I agree with Neroden and others. There are just too many MM controlling the SP and we'll never have a true squeeze. As it is, I probably won't get my Model X until the share price reaches $1K/share.

Well. 'bye for now.

 

[TradingInvest]

OMG I think you saved my life! I was going to have to sell a lot of shares at a huge loss. But just by buying $4,816 worth of June 7 Puts at 150 SP my margin call goes away according to the margin calculator on Fidelity. It is all a game...

I don't know how this will unfold. You should consider each scenario and plan ahead what to do for each case. The Puts can prevent an immediate margin call, but if the stock keeps going lower, you account would continue to shrink, your debt remains constant. I read a book long time ago, it said if you get a margin call, generally it's prudent to reduce your position to reduce margin, instead of adding more cash to your account to maintain the level of the losing position... however everyone's situation is different, every stock is different. I hope this will all workout fine for you.

 

[DaveT]

Tesla dropping the Model S price by $3000 (and Model X by $2000) mid-quarter is not a reassuring sign. Sigh.

 

[DaveT]

Tesla dropping the Model S price by $3000 (and Model X by $2000) mid-quarter is not a reassuring sign. Sigh.

Also, having the most popular website covering your company tell people not to buy two of your three main products at this time is not helpful. Double sigh.

 

[Artful Dodger]

It would require shareholder vote, no? I would vote No. Musk would vote No. That’s almost a veto already.

Yeah, that's not really the point here. If Apple puts a buyout price on TSLA, the SP instantly zooms to that level. To have a realistic chance of passing shareholder approval, that SP needs to be substantial.

Apple has $200B in cash (likey more cash than the Saudis). If they put say half of that toward buying Tesla, that values TSLA instantly at $100B / 175M shares = $570/share.

If they offer less it's another burst bubble but you can cash out and buy back later.

Not saying this offer will happen, or even is likely to happen. Jus' sayin' what it would do to the SP. Remember the words of Adam Janus?:

"Tesla is [blah, blah] and STRATEGICALLY UNDERVALUED"​

Cheers!

P.S. I don't think this will happen, because Elon needs the Tesla Tech, not just the cash. Even if he HAD a few trillion in cash, where would he buy the tech he needs?? Exactly. Tesla, except he wouldn't be holding the wheel anymore. Ergo, buyout=non-starter.

 

[sundaymorning]

At near $200 levels, I start to believe Musk would be willing to entertain buyout offers once more. If you’re Apple with a huge pile of cash, and allegedly have shown interest in the past, it starts to become very compelling again. Musk would finally burn the shorts for good, and I can think of few things that’d make him happier than that.

Probably unlikely for sure, but I wouldn’t rule it out completely. Offer would be $421

The take private ship has sailed. Anything below $420 just looks shady since he’s driven the stock down single hand-idly.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Those, who clicked "Disagree" to the above, Please, do tell me how do you envision the supersmart AI NeuralNet (TBD) jumping out of the V3 Tesla ASIC processor, floating around the car and wiping the camera lenses using the Force like a good Jedi !

In my 30+ year career as a software developer (specialized in AI techniques applied to Molecular Modeling), I have seen my fair share of good, capable software, yet I fail to imagine how to make software do something for which the hardware capability does not exist.

How do disabled people drive when they can't wash their own car windows? There's rules for that. If safe, they drive slowly to a place where they can get help. If they can't drive safely, then they pull over and call for help. How do elderly people with night vision limitations keep their licenses? They drive during daylight hours:

IF DARK

DON'T DRIVE​

ELSE

CONTINUE​

It's not that complicated. You don't need to be Bobby Rahal to hold a basic driver's licence. There are grades of driver skills just like driver licences. The reasonable thing to do is put 'learner' type restrictions on early self-driving cars, and let them go out and learn. No night driving at first for example. No rain or winter conditions. There's still a huge swath of utility in that type of limited driving skill. But it won't get better without real-world miles.

Tesla's winning advantage will be the digital record of all driving events, especially the actions of other parties, during any accident investigation. They will have REAL evidence based learning opportunities, not the missed opporunities that most human drivers repeat now in court (at least the lucky ones). And their's is just individual trial and error learning. One person learned something.

Tesla FSD has FLEET LEARNING, and they have it right now.

Do you understand how exponential that makes the learning curve when a single event recorded by just one car in a fleet of millions can be rapidly distributed throughout the entire fleet?

FSD skill will grow exponentially with Fleet Learning. The SAE Self-Driving Levels themselves are insufficiently granular, and already form an obsolete rating system. Time to apply some more sensible, human-like categories and restrictions for FSD, so we can work on lifting those restrictions one by one. It's also time to get out on the road and get on with it.

Cheers!

 

[anon]

I just checked out the spreadsheet with the carriers and 4 ships had arrived at the end of March in China. I'd love to hear an explanation too.

Where is the spreadsheet? I've seen people referring to it, but can't find the link. Thanks!

 

[dakh]

Those, who clicked "Disagree" to the above, Please, do tell me how do you envision the supersmart AI NeuralNet (TBD) jumping out of the V3 Tesla ASIC processor, floating around the car and wiping the camera lenses using the Force like a good Jedi !

Aren't the front facing cameras covered by regular windshield wipers? They're heated and wiped so at the very least a bug splat/bird drop can be wiped. Going to be sketch but I'd imagine between the radar and what, 3 different front cameras plus ultrasonics it would be possible to either alert the driver to take over [level 3] or park the car [level 4?] if there's no driver and/or or no steering wheel.

I think if Tesla can demonstrate their stuff works with clean cameras, it's going to be good enough. Pretty clear that solving for dirty cameras is trivial, and there's enough big metropolitan areas in US where heavy snow isn't a problem so the fleet can work there 99% of the time.