Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[dc_h]

Personnally, I think the new "Giant-Cube" Grohmann machine builds 'Maxcells',

I agree on the new machine. Might be some other challenges if the machine works, but theyre making the right progress. If this is a cell machine, it would be a game changer.

 

[Green Pete]

The battery energy density isn't there yet for electric air transport. During the June 2017 AGM, Elon said it'll be 5 years (2022) before Tesla has 500 wh/kg batteries in production (start listening at 3:04):

Notice that Elon didn't say "Panasonic?" Notice that he said "we?"

I think the Maxwell acquisition has been on his mind for some time. 400 wh/kg makes electric flight possible with "substantial innovation in the airframe. At 500 it starts to become quite compelling."

Personnally, I think the new "Giant-Cube" Grohmann machine builds 'Maxcells', and soon we'll all be swimming in Tesla Semi's, Pickups, Model 2s, and FCF...

Cheers!

I didn't mean 8 months from today. What I meant it there are a number of companies trying to operate in that space and their timeline looks like ~2025 start. I was saying if Tesla plans to operate in that space, whats the minimum time from announcement to follow through. Essentially how much time before launch do they have the ability to keep it somewhat secret. My estimate for that was 8 months, essentially meaning if Tesla plans to be an early entry into that space we would hope to hear something no later than spring of 2024.

This was the original full thought #68776

The reason I think it is worth bringing up in an investor forum is because I think Uber's survival at this point is dependent on their air taxis, as I don't think that they will have much pull in the RoboTaxi realm when it finally arrives. But there is another large transportation opportunity growing in AirTaxi's that I've never heard anyone suggest Tesla would play at. But if they could it would mean an entirely separate added value to the company that is entirely unaccounted for.

With Tunnels, RoboTaxis, Energy Storage, Solar Panels, and AirTaxis partnering with SpaceX they could provide all the Worlds (and off worlds) Transportation, Energy and Communications infrastructure. That's a very big conglomerate.

 

[ZachShahan]

Troy Teslike (@TroyTeslike) | Twitter final prediction for deliveries this Q is 91,328 (73,795 M3s; 17,533 S&X).

Interesting to see his evolution from ~74K to ~91K through the quarter.

Is that kind of evolution normal for him?

 

[dc_h]

According to our last Pravduh About Tesla report, he had 19 negative headlines and 15 positive ones: Rare Net Positive Week For Tesla Media Coverage, But ... (#Pravduh About #Tesla Report 23) | CleanTechnica

People need to lighten up. Having critical thoughts doesn’t put someone in cahoots with the shorts or big oil. Tsla fans were badgering an early Tesla owner and repeat Tesla buyer who also is interested in the Taycan and the move to sustainable transport. His interest is other companies stepping up and moving to EV’s is proof he’s a traitor and “war criminal” of some sort. Please don’t go out of your way to make new tslaq fans. Being a zealot or j-hole is no way to win fans and friends.
There’s a lot of bad journalism that’s due to not getting it and probably much less due to corruption. Cathie Wood posted today about analysts not understanding amazon back in the day. No cabal of evil, just short sited people who didn’t understand the business. In retrospect, the thing about amazon wasn’t the retail business, but their dedication to new opportunities and ability to implement. Tesla’s advantage isn’t EV’s, batteries or self driving per se, it’s all of that, but it’s the constant innovation and ability to build on each layer building and their vertical integration.

Anyhow, please try be kind or at least be cool. Telling people they’re monsters is not likely to win them over to your side.

 

[dc_h]

Interesting to see his evolution from ~74K to ~91K through the quarter.

Is that kind of evolution normal for him?

No, he’s usually fairly close. It’s been a blowout June!

 

[Sparky4life]

Tesla itself guided for 90k-100k deliveries and a loss for Q2. As the SR+ makes up up a large amount of orders going forward it absolutely makes sense for ASP to drop compared to earlier quarters which were all performance/LR/MR models, especially in quarters with limited S/X availability (like Q2). Musk himself thinks the long term ASP is somewhere around $42k, If I recall correctly.

Tesla is probably not far away from profits at 90k, and the answer to TSLA trolls regarding profitability is that margins on M3 continue to improve and so does the volume, which invariably will lead to profits, probably around 100k-110k unit range (depending on S/X/3 mix).

Probably won’t have to wait long for that, possibly Q3 guidance given at Q2 earnings on 4-5 weeks will signal Q3 profits with 100k deliveries.

Thanks, that's helpful. The argument seems to revolve around margins; i.e., if margins for the SR are 0 or < 0 (losing money on every car!!!) then it doesn't matter how many they sell. This is despite the fact that in the Q1 ER letter, Telsa reported ~20& gross margin and guided for ~25% (does Tesla break it down by model?). The Q2 ER should put that to rest now that we have a full quarter of SR. It would be helpful to know what the margin is for SR since that would help disprove once and for all the 'losing money on every sale' argument...

 

[brian45011]

As someone who does this for a living, I can tell you that this even happens when you stay within the design parameters. Point of fact, just last week I saw a robot **** up about 150k EUR worth of equipment by smashing its manipulator into the ground. Reason? Someone had set the Z-axis pointing in the wrong direction. Unfortunately this was not caught during testing because this particular coordinate system was only used when a tool change was triggered immediately after the resolution of a specific emergency stop. It should have been tested, but it wasn't. Stuff like that happens.

Precisely! A process is a sequence of integrated, inter-connected steps, with all down-stream steps dependent on and reacting to any changes to prior steps in the process. Tesla procured a fully integrated painting process/system from Eisenmann. That system was not just a few isolated robots or physical/mechanical functions. The process also involved more complex chemical unit operations such as mixing constituents, baking/curing films, cleaning equipment, recovering re-usable components for recycling back into the process, and managing/neutralizing emissions and effluents.

After running off all the too-expensive, gray bearded "barnacles" who might have understood not only the design parameters/specifications for the system but also the assumptions and rationale for selecting those parameters, Tesla decided to "go to 11." Until they could re-write the process control software, Tesla assigned an individual to hit a manual over-ride button so the system could run faster than the design parameters allowed. The young gun tyros would have pulled it off if it weren't for a never discovered renegade whose " sabotage was *subtle* and *well hidden*, apparently."

The certainty here that whatever problems there may be with Paint is attributable to sabotage and has nothing to do with competence or supervisory oversight within Tesla is gratifying. With vigilance, sabotage will not recur in GFs-3 to X. Tesla Air Quality Compliance Violations Center On Troubled Paint Shop

 

[RobStark]

Everyone in my experience knows the eye-rolling that happens among the staff at those first few meetings: when the small company hires the senior executive from the larger, more successful company..

Sentences begin with: "At Tesla, we did blah blah blah.." Really? When you're doing $8 billion in quarterly sales like Tesla you have way more leeway for such insights than a start-up like Lucid Motors has...his thought processes are probably calibrated to the wrong size of organization. Tesla has got this far by not hiring many experienced senior executives out of Detroit..because saying: "At GM, we did blah, blah blah.." isn't helpful at an electric car company start-up.

The very first guy Tesla hired to set up all production processes at Fremont for Model S was the factory manager for Toyota's top factory in North America.

Then several years later, when the job was getting too big, Tesla hired a guy from Audi to put under him.

 

[Sparky4life]

Tesla are the only company that mass produce. Tesla are the only company that design+make their own cars, motors, and batteries.

This is key to me. Margins can only get better. They are also the only company that owns all of the software in their cars. Other automakers settle for a hundred individual ECUs made by multiple suppliers connected by CAN. Talk about cast in stone!

 

[RobStark]

T Musk himself thinks the long term ASP is somewhere around $42k, If I recall correctly.

That was before production when Musk reckoned base price was $35k.

Now base website price is $39.9k and off menu base price is $35.4k.

 

[Cartegena]

The very first guy Tesla hired to set up all production processes at Fremont for Model S was the factory manager for Toyota's top factory in North America.

Then several years later, when the job was getting too big, Tesla hired a guy from Audi to put under him.

So did Hochholdinger report to Passin or vice versa? Did either report directly to Elon or was JB or Jerome in between?

 

[Navin]

Today Elon Musk called out wsj reporter Charley Grant for potential ties to Jim Chanos.

Everyone who tracks Tesla closely knows the history of Charley and his negative narrative on TSLA. What was interesting to see if there was some truth to being linked to Jim Chanos and serving as his mouthpiece to the financial community.

Let’s go down the rabbit hole....

——

Check out this article:
How Jim Chanos Uses Cynicism, Chutzpah — and a Secret Twitter Account — to Take on Markets (and Elon Musk)

Chanos can appear world-weary and somewhat guarded — but, as the saying goes, in every cynic beats the bleeding heart of an idealist. “There’s more than a little of the crusader in him,” says longtime friend Jim Grant, founder and editor of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer. “He would like to clean up Wall Street. He would like to improve the quality of corporate reporting. He would like to rid Wall Street of the scoundrels and clean up corporate management.”

Charley’s Dad’s BFF - a little sloppy quote they probably regret

——
Jim Chanos has been short other very specific stocks:

—-
Caterpillar

Charley writes about it - helps out
Why Caterpillar Rolled Over

——

Valeant

No way - guess whose back caddying for Mr chanos on the back nine:
Valeant assets good, but debt burden an issue: Grant

——-
Jimbo shorts Mallinckrodt

Charley lends a hand
These Drug Companies Are Too Frail to Cure

——-

Jim calls out Uber
Legendary short vendor Jim Chanos: Uber and Lyft went public because they’d to, now not because they wished to – BrowseDesk

Charley calls out Uber and Jim responds via Twitter handle
Charley Grant on Twitter


Could go on and on...

 

[Cartegena]

With Tunnels, RoboTaxis, Energy Storage, Solar Panels, and AirTaxis partnering with SpaceX they could provide all the Worlds (and off worlds) Transportation, Energy and Communications infrastructure. That's a very big conglomerate.

Since you are in Chi-town, when will the Loop to O'Hare transit system be operational?

 

[RobStark]

So did Hochholdinger report to Passin or vice versa? Did either report directly to Elon or was JB or Jerome in between?

My understanding was Hochholdinger was in charge of Model 3 production while Passin was in charge of Fremont.In my mind that puts Passin above Hochholdinger. Now Hochholdinger has left without a direct replacement and Jerome is President of Automotive Operations. Jerome only reports to Elon. That puts Jerome above Passin.

 

[PeterJA]

Further - huge market segments like CUV, pickup and semi are about to be exploited.

All true, along with huge markets for energy storage and solar roofs. But the profit-tsunami that Tesla is building in plain sight is Full Self-Driving and Tesla Network. I wouldn't care if the Big Lie were true that Tesla loses money on every car, as long as Tesla keeps putting more on the roads like an army of sleeping cash-machines waiting for the software update that wakes them up.

I think shorts must be stupid or ignorant or dishonest (or all three) to deny what is coming. People say computers will never drive better than humans, or at least not for many years, but that's what they said about chess and Go and poker and Jeopardy.

(skip to 42:00)

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

After running off all the too-expensive, gray bearded "barnacles" who might have understood not only the design parameters/specifications for the system but also the assumptions and rationale for selecting those parameters, Tesla decided to "go to 11." Until they could re-write the process control software, Tesla assigned an individual to hit a manual over-ride button so the system could run faster than the design parameters allowed. The young gun tyros would have pulled it off if it weren't for a never discovered renegade whose " sabotage was *subtle* and *well hidden*, apparently."
Tesla Air Quality Compliance Violations Center On Troubled Paint Shop

The “barnacles” were scrubbed in May 2018, and almost all of the fires & other issues in the paint shop mentioned in the Niedermeyer article you linked to were from April 2018 and earlier. Fires in the paint shop have been more rare since the gray-bearded “barnacles” were scrubbed, not more frequent. I’m not claiming a causal relationship— I don’t think the layoffs made paint any safer. But it does argue strongly against your suggestion that these gray beards were making the paint shop safer.

I agree with what I think is your general notion that Tesla could use improved oversight and management, but I think this particular claim doesn’t hold up.

 

[StealthP3D]

Happy Birthday Tesla! 16 today!
Today Is Tesla's 16-Year Anniversary: Let's Take A Look Back

OMG! Sweet 16!

And a S3XY thing she is! Now before the bears get too excited, I'll say on no uncertain terms, NO, the shorts will not be allowed to have their way with her! They are not even invited. Because her good friends are throwing a "coming of age" party all week long and will be supporting her and keeping a close eye on her movements. And it couldn't come at a better time, we will be celebrating America's birthday at the same time as Tesla's sweet 16 celebration. The shorts are not invited to either celebration due to conflicts of interest that go straight to the core of both events so they will have to stay at home and hope the party is not too much fun.

 

[ZachShahan]

Putting aside partisanship for one brief moment (as if...) what exactly do you think the folks going to Lucid think they can do there, that they could not do at Tesla?

Tesla's head of production is going to EV startup Lucid Motors - Electrek

People breaking away from large companies to create startups in niche areas is common, but people going from new companies that are just starting to have an impact to start another new company doing exactly the same thing, isn't.

My guess is that he didn't do too well at Tesla and had to find someplace new.

 

[vigleik]

I’m trying to get out of here. This town seems very backwards thinking. There is some serious opposition to it for reason I can’t fathom.

Elon Musk’s high-speed tunnel project is the big loser in Chicago’s race for mayor

The people here I’ve talked to about it don’t seem at all interested.

Meanwhile there’s an ongoing project for renovations for the redline that have a timeline that doesn’t end until 2026. The Chicago L is terrible. I lived in Asia for almost a decade. I don’t understand how people think this is acceptable transportation for America’s second largest city. Or that a project that doesn’t really improve anything but will take 7+ years to finish is a wise move.

Published: Mar 9, 2019.

@Green Pete: Could you possibly edit your post to reflect that this is old news?

In particular the mayor election already happened.

 

[Off Shore]

Today Elon Musk called out wsj reporter Charley Grant for potential ties to Jim Chanos.

Everyone who tracks Tesla closely knows the history of Charley and his negative narrative on TSLA. What was interesting to see if there was some truth to being linked to Jim Chanos and serving as his mouthpiece to the financial community.

Let’s go down the rabbit hole....

——

Check out this article:
How Jim Chanos Uses Cynicism, Chutzpah — and a Secret Twitter Account — to Take on Markets (and Elon Musk)

Chanos can appear world-weary and somewhat guarded — but, as the saying goes, in every cynic beats the bleeding heart of an idealist. “There’s more than a little of the crusader in him,” says longtime friend Jim Grant, founder and editor of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer. “He would like to clean up Wall Street. He would like to improve the quality of corporate reporting. He would like to rid Wall Street of the scoundrels and clean up corporate management.”

Charley’s Dad’s BFF - a little sloppy quote they probably regret

——
Jim Chanos has been short other very specific stocks:

—-
Caterpillar

Charley writes about it - helps out
Why Caterpillar Rolled Over

——

Valeant

No way - guess whose back caddying for Mr chanos on the back nine:
Valeant assets good, but debt burden an issue: Grant

——-
Jimbo shorts Mallinckrodt

Charley lends a hand
These Drug Companies Are Too Frail to Cure

——-

Jim calls out Uber
Legendary short vendor Jim Chanos: Uber and Lyft went public because they’d to, now not because they wished to – BrowseDesk

Charley calls out Uber and Jim responds via Twitter handle
Charley Grant on Twitter


Could go on and on...

Mentioning @Papafox to be sure he sees this. Thanks for the compilation.