Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[goinfraftw]

Incredible read for the World Bank's technical paper on Microgrids. There's a lot in it that's exciting.

For example, Puerto Rico's plans post Hurricane Maria, an excerpt:

"The island’s new integrated resource plan (IRP) divides the previously centralized grid into eight mini grids, which will bring online almost 1.4 GW of solar generation and 920 megawatts (MW) of battery storage between 2019 and 2022. The IRP specifically describes the business case for transitioning to mini grids, stating that it is the least-cost way to achieve resilience against hurricanes, reach renewable energy targets, and provide high-quality customer service (Walton 2019). Globally, ESMAP estimates that the market for mini grids developed as a way to increase resilience could exceed 5,000 installed and planned mini grids, mostly in islands and high-income countries, connecting more than 10 million people, at an investment cost of around $10 billion."

 

[Chop110]

What’s going on after hours?

Never mind, just a glitch...

 

[CyberDutchie]

Has to be tomorrow. Q4 was 2., Q2 2018 was on the 2.
Q1 was on the 3. - and we all know, how that went down...

They should do it on the 5th, after market close.

 

[mrmage]

I'm pretty new to options trading. If we assume that there will be an artificial dip before/over the 4th, then buying puts that expire on the 8th would be the logical play

The price of options drops quickly when there's not much time before expiration (the time value). Out-of-the-money options with only a few trading days are cheap, but can lose half their value the day before or expire worthless if the SP doesn't move enough. Even if the SP goes in your direction, it may not be enough to compensate for the loss in time value.

In-the-money options and options with longer expiration times are safer, but effectively have less leverage. Also pay attention to the spreads. Those can be brutal, often >> 10%.

 

[HG Wells]

To Boss Short:

Trying to come up with our talking points for 3rd and 4th quarters.

I think we explain 2nd quarter as the last days to get $3750 off on a Tesla.
Now that the tax incentive is cut to a measly $1875, nobody is going to jump through the hoops to get it.

Also that makes the Nissan Leaf a lot cheaper since you still get the $7500 on it.
The base model 3 cant be worth $7500 more than a leaf.

So, to sum it up.
US sales to dive in 3rd quarter due to tax incentive.

That's the way we will spin it.

Chief Editor
Shortsville Times

 

[Fact Checking]

Production and deliveries report release guesses:

Last year Tesla filed the Q2 Production and Deliveries report on the 2nd of July, a Monday:

2018/Q2: Filing Date: 2018-07-02 (Mon), Accepted: 2018-07-02 09:04:06 (Mon)​

This year July 1 is a Monday, so we might see the report on Tuesday or Wednesday (2nd or 3rd of July).

I believe the rest of the U.S. automotive industry is reporting deliveries on the 3rd of July, Wednesday - so that would be the probable release date for Tesla as well. Note that Tesla's Q1'19 report was an outlier with the April 4 release - I suspect they were waiting for more deliveries to be confirmed.

Most of the production and deliveries reports were released during early trading hours, between 9am-10am ET, but this pattern is not guaranteed and it was broken in Q1'19.

 

[Antares Nebula]

Sadly and as a huge Apple fan, I agree with Gerber: innovation is dead at Apple. The below article supports this. I know people that made 10x in Apple, and still holding. Why? Tesla is the new Apple. Time to switch.

Jony Ive ‘dispirited’ by Tim Cook’s lack of interest in product design:
A narrative is growing that Ive’s exit from Apple started years ago

'Engineers found that the doomed AirPower charging pad “behaved more like a dorm-room hot plate, heating up loose change and failing to evenly recharge devices.”'

-- what a colossal waste. What on earth is Apple doing with its billions? Can't even create a working wireless charger.

** Peak Apple. Tesla just getting started. **

 

[ZeApelido]

I’d jump if I got offered the same pay and had to work 30 to 50% less. That’s the same isn’t it?

That's so European of you

 

[Cherry Wine]

Sadly and as a huge Apple fan, I agree with Gerber: innovation is dead at Apple. The below article supports this. I know people that made 10x in Apple, and still holding. Why? Tesla is the new Apple. Time to switch.

Jony Ive ‘dispirited’ by Tim Cook’s lack of interest in product design:
A narrative is growing that Ive’s exit from Apple started years ago

'Engineers found that the doomed AirPower charging pad “behaved more like a dorm-room hot plate, heating up loose change and failing to evenly recharge devices.”'

-- what a colossal waste. What on earth is Apple doing with its billions? Can't even create a working wireless charger.

** Peak Apple. Tesla just getting started. **

Around here we always take Tesla-related articles relying on unnamed sources with a grain of salt. Should we not do the same here?

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Around here we always take Tesla-related articles relying on unnamed sources with a grain of salt. Should we not do the same here?

Particularly from WSJ.

 

[neroden]

OT

To be fair, I don't think the 190 1-star reviews the WSJ received has anything to with their reporting of TSLA (although the most recent one mentions it), most are complaining about their paywall because, y'know, journalists should work for free.

The WSJ has an infamous history, having actually driven one man (Vincent Foster) to suicide through a campaign of malicious libels. So they have a LOT of reasons to get 1 star reviews.

Their editorial page lies constantly about everything.

 

[Antares Nebula]

Around here we always take Tesla-related articles relying on unnamed sources with a grain of salt. Should we not do the same here?

More info beyond the Verge article and the WSJ firewall:

https://gizmodo.com/maybe-apple-will-be-better-off-without-jony-ive-1836019025

The biggest takeaway from all this for me is that Design no longer reports to the CEO, but to operational executives below the CEO. Chief Design Officer no more. (Even before that position, Ives and Steve Jobs worked closely together). Also, note that at Tesla, Franz, the CDO (or Chief Designer in Tesla's case) reports directly to Musk. Conclusion: design is being demoted (at least a bit) at Apple. Bad move. I guess design is no longer a core competency but producing movies are??

 

[neroden]

So there are other force-de-majour (or whatever the hell that is) events that can happen, that I put the probability of any customer car rolling out end of this year to be very low, and a methodical slow ramp up Q1/Q2.

I put the probability of a customer car rolling out before end of year to be very *high* -- you don't need much of a supply chain to get those first dozen cars out, and you want to run all the machinery through its paces -- but I also think that obstacles will prevent *volume production* from happening until Q1/Q2.

 

[neroden]

Well, we know where Peter H went:

Lucid Motors Appoints Peter Hochholdinger as Vice President of Manufacturing

Ah, poaching. Given the pressure-cooker work environment at Tesla, any of these startups can poach almost any employee by offering them a lot of money and more freedom. But Lucid is infamous for spending money without accomplishing anything, if not as infamous as some of the other startups. I wish them luck.

 

[neroden]

OT (re WSJ)

For sure. They have definitely declined in value since their acquisition by Newscorp though. Before that I generally trusted them, with the understanding that they have a corporate slant.

Newscorp eliminated the firewall between the always-evil editorial page and the formerly-legit news pages.

 

[Christine69420]

Here is an interesting video from Bjørn Nyland aka TeslaBjørn.

He and his friend Pawel did yet another race. This time 800 km. (500 miles or so) t/r Oslo-Lyngdal in a Porsche 911 Turbo fossil car against a TM3. They had to fill gas or charge to complete the race. And have something to eat during the 11ish hours on the road.

If your friends say charging take too much time and filling gas only a few minutes then this video might enlighten them.

 

[neroden]

Putting aside partisanship for one brief moment (as if...) what exactly do you think the folks going to Lucid think they can do there, that they could not do at Tesla?

Get paid better, get better work hours, and get more decision-making authority.

Even if they figure the startup is likely to fail, they might think it was more fun.

 

[neroden]

OT

Thank you for your detailed analysis Fact Checking. b. Writing software to hack Tesla’s MOS; Have you found any Github repositories or coding example what MR Tripp has been publically telling that he is a coder

yes, actually. not linking here.

 

[AlMc]

They should do it on the 5th, after market close.

IF they wait till the 5th. ( I don't think they will) they should have a 'Jerome moment' and announce 'Q2 should be profitable' as well

EDIT: It is not 'nice' of me but I want the shorts to 'feel the heat' over the weekend in that scenario!

 

[neroden]

My feeling based on their battery capacity/R&D as well as their NN experience with vision that Tesla could jump in the game and be a major competitor < 8 months.

Airframes are hard. I mean, really really asterisking hard. The government testing for them to be approved is really slow, too.

Given how busy Tesla is, what I think is much more likely would be Tesla selling powertrain kits to the other airplane manufacturers: batteries, chargers, maybe even motors and propellers, but letting someone else do the obnoxious airframe validation. Tesla's use of cylindrical cells makes it very possible for them to create small "airworthy" battery modules which could be packed into the airframe in whatever manner was appropriate for the particular plane.