Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Fact Checking]

Interesting after-market and pre-market TSLA price action on higher than usual volume. Does anyone know what is driving this? Macros are mostly flat/neutral.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Las Vegas Supercharger station cost $1m. We have talked about new moats like FSD a lot, but the numerous superchargers out there remains perhaps the most significant. With thin margins, legacy manufacturers need to sell 1000 cars to fund just 1 station, in 1 town, in 1 country. Or do they plough the $1m back into keeping up with Tesla tech and hope that governments find the $1m to fund rich people's chargers? Rich folk who have poor taste in EVs I might add.

I don't think chargers are that much of a moat in the medium term. As an example, Ionity is creating chargers that can charge just as fast as a supercharger. Money is flowing into this sector pretty fast to build out the network and soon enough no-one will even think about finding a fast charger as they will be as ubiquitous as petrol stations.

In the short term the supercharger network is a huge benefit to Tesla as it means the difference between being able to travel long distance or not.

Tesla may be able to leverage their network with adjacent sales or something like that but fast charging by itself will become a commodity product.

 

[schonelucht]

Which inside information do you have to support your assertion that we can only hope for a ‘healthy incremental increase’? (what is that? 30%? 40%?).

30% quarter on quarter as mentioned in the Q1 update letter, which works out to around a tripling on a yearly basis.

 

[JusRelax]

I've posted the following questions, which are currently under review (sorry @neroden, say.com has a 280 character limit so I had to significantly butcher your question):

Say

Many Tesla owners are finding it exceptionally difficult to communicate with Tesla service. Many wait 5 hours on hold or are caught in phone tree loops. Several service centers can only be scheduled by phone, which is nigh impossible. What is being done about Tesla service hell?

Say

Pearl white is now the base color for all vehicles. This paint would require multiple layers, significantly increasing the amount of time each base vehicle spends in the paint factory. Is there any possibility of causing significant paint delays due to this?

 

[Darkfox021]

In what possible way can having a simpler white paint add to "service repair complexity"? Only one. Bad service/delivery communications. Which we *know is a Tesla problem*.

Simpler white paint actually makes paint repairs faster. But in Tesla's broken repair system, faster repairs add to "service repair complexity"?!?

So this is definitely the communications issue. Pretty sad, really.

Simpler paint leads to faster wear leads to service. Heavier duty paint leads to less service needs.

 

[SO16]

Fair enough, I'll change my description to "P trims are selling crack to acceleration addicts, and only tells you how many of those addicts there are and how much money they have to feed their addiction".

Acceleration on normal Tesla trims is so good that you really have to be an addict to want a P trim.

If I was in the market and could get a lifetime of crack for 5k (p Model), I’d take it!!!!! That’s a steal.

 

[Fact Checking]

Simpler paint leads to faster wear leads to service. Heavier duty paint leads to less service needs.

Also, the introduction of a new type of paint adds significant downstream service and recall risk. Paint quality is actually one of the most uncertain areas of automotive materials science and even the largest OEMs have been burned by major paint quality problems a number of times. (!) Having to re-paint all panels on thousands or even tens of thousands of units under warranty is a significant expense, risk and overhead that would interfere with regular service work.

The combination of hard radiation from space (UV photons) and the many chemical, temperature and physical abrasion environments that cars are exposed to globally is non-trivial and not an exact science even today, but a largely experimental field where 'proven track record of paint' counts for a lot.

A new 'simple white' would not just reduce the value of white Teslas a bit, but it would undeniably be a new color that Tesla has to develop.

The extra cost of one more layer of paint (IIRC 4 layers and passes in the paint shop instead of the regular 3 layers) with Pearl White is a known expense and a known risk on the other hand.

I don't expect Tesla to add new colors for at least a year - at best they'll reintroduce an old one.

 

[Mobius484]

Perma bear Brian Johnson with Barclays increases his target by a few bucks. Maybe hoping to move up from laughing stock of Wall Street to chuckling stock.

 

[Don TLR]

The Vegas Supercharger may have cost a pretty penny, but. Look at the advertising potential is has. How many people will ride the tram that passes right over a huge charging station and think of Tesla. That station will have a lot more impact than a billboard placed somewhere..

 

[CyberDutchie]

Interesting after-market and pre-market TSLA price action on higher than usual volume. Does anyone know what is driving this? Macros are mostly flat/neutral.

The pattern overall to me looks like this: TSLA wants to go up more aggressively, but the moment it runs up too fast, massive selling blocks push it down again. This happens during regular trading hours, as well as in pre- and after hours.

The result: since the bottom of June 3rd we’ve had an average of about $10-12 gain per week: slow but somewhat steady.

If this trend continues we should be back to $300 levels in September and perhaps reach $350 by October. This is my hope.

 

[Huskyf]

Good news from Barclay except price of share.
A big Tesla skeptic on Wall Street raises his estimate for second-quarter earnings

 

[JusRelax]

The Vegas Supercharger may have cost a pretty penny, but. Look at the advertising potential is has. How many people will ride the tram that passes right over a huge charging station and think of Tesla. That station will have a lot more impact than a billboard placed somewhere..

Initially, I was thinking about how it doesn't make sense to have v3 superchargers in vegas, where it basically takes at least 10 minutes to walk anywhere. But I believe that you're right -- this was definitely moreso for advertsiement than it was for efficiency.

 

[Mobius484]

Any chance this is near where the hyperloop will go?

Initially, I was thinking about how it doesn't make sense to have v3 superchargers in vegas, where it basically takes at least 10 minutes to walk anywhere. But I believe that you're right -- this was definitely moreso for advertsiement than it was for efficiency.

 

[Fact Checking]

Initially, I was thinking about how it doesn't make sense to have v3 superchargers in vegas, where it basically takes at least 10 minutes to walk anywhere. But I believe that you're right -- this was definitely moreso for advertsiement than it was for efficiency.

I believe the v3 rollout of the new Vegas Supercharger might also have been accelerated by the recent "how long does it take to take a road-trip from L.A. to Vegas and back in an EV" articles lately, such as:

L.A. to Vegas and Back by Electric Car: 8 Hours Driving; 5 More Plugged In
​

With a Long Range Model S (or a Model 3) you can go non-stop and recharge within about 30 minutes to gain ~300 miles for the leg back.

 

[anthonyj]

The pattern overall to me looks like this: TSLA wants to go up more aggressively, but the moment it runs up too fast, massive selling blocks push it down again. This happens during regular trading hours, as well as in pre- and after hours.

The result: since the bottom of June 3rd we’ve had an average of about $10-12 gain per week: slow but somewhat steady.

If this trend continues we should be back to $300 levels in September and perhaps reach $350 by October. This is my hope.

Big time accumulation has been happening. I haven’t seen this much strength in Tesla. Robinhood data is showing that retail is slowly cashing out, short interest is stable, who is buying? Hmm I wonder. They will hold even through crappy earnings. The valuation is too good even at $250. I’ve said it before, the May drop was fake, it didn’t exist, it was a figment of our imagination. Shorts gifted me these shares and calls at $177, thank you Adam Jonas, you are the best Jonas brother. I will sell some when Dan Ives from Wedbush becomes bullish again

 

[X Fan]

Good news from Barclay except price of share.
A big Tesla skeptic on Wall Street raises his estimate for second-quarter earnings

Quite a closing comment: "likely raised enough cash to make it through 2020, even with below guided deliveries".

As often noted on here, many of these analysts do not excel at their jobs.......

 

[Fact Checking]

Big time accumulation has been happening. I haven’t seen this much strength in Tesla. Robinhood data is showing that retail is slowly cashing out, short interest is stable, who is buying?

Actually, 96.4% of retail Robinhood holders of TSLA have NOT cashed out yet:

Robintrack

Today 163.6k users are still holding, compared to the peak of 169.7k, a reduction of only 3.6% - which is unprecedented: look how quickly Robinhood holders sold after the bottom in 2018.

This is amazing not just because it's a departure from past trading patterns, but because almost half of all current Robinhood holders bought TSLA below price levels of $250, so they could cash out profitably if they wanted to - but didn't.

This is a sign that maybe the number of long term TSLA holders has increased significantly, i.e. quite a few of them are transitioning from swing-traders to investors.

 

[AlMc]

Perma bear Brian Johnson with Barclays increases his target by a few bucks. Maybe hoping to move up from laughing stock of Wall Street to chuckling stock.

Good news from Barclay except price of share.
A big Tesla skeptic on Wall Street raises his estimate for second-quarter earnings

Yo, Brian. You>>>>> First they listen to you, then they laugh at you, then (now), they ignore you. Don't go away mad, just go away. Have a nice day.

 

[moneyburner1]

Dear all,

was there any communication concerning the Gigafactory 2 Milestone? Text from 10Q April 2019


Gigafactory 2


We have an agreement with the SUNY Foundation related to the construction of a facility in Buffalo, New York, referred to as Gigafactory 2, where we have housed the development and production of solar products and components. The terms of such agreement require us to comply with a number of covenants, including that specified portions of the total jobs required to be employed directly by Tesla in the state of New York and the total cumulative investment required to be made by Tesla be met by April 30, 2019, the first anniversary of the SUNY Foundation’s substantial completion of its construction work at the facility. We fully expect to meet these covenants on time and will report our current status to the SUNY Foundation following such anniversary.

Overall, we expect our significant operations at Gigafactory 2 and the surrounding Buffalo area to continue, including our ramp and manufacture of Solar Roof, which we are planning to scale over the remainder of 2019 and into 2020, as well as certain product development and other Tesla operations. In addition, Panasonic manufactures PV cells and modules at Gigafactory 2, which are among our various sources for our solar retrofit installations. Although we remain on track with our covenants with the SUNY Foundation with respect to Tesla’s progress at and plans for Buffalo, any failure to comply with these covenants could obligate us to pay significant amounts to the SUNY Foundation and result in termination of the agreement. Our expectations as to the costs and timelines of our investment and operations at Buffalo, including those associated with acquiring equipment and supporting our operations with respect to our production of Solar Roof there, may prove incorrect, which could subject us to significant expenses to achieve the desired benefits.

 

[zzziii]

Tesla Model 3 standard edition price now reduced from £41,550 including Plug-in grant

The recent price reduction for Model 3 has attracted a lot of interest on the largest deals aggregator in the UK - hotukdeals. Based on the voting of the members, the new pricing is currently ranking as the hottest all time "Car Deals & Offer".
As expected, this has triggered a major debate on the forum (18 pages with comments) about the pros and cons of buying an EV / Tesla or about the state subsidies, etc.
The audience of this site is quite young and tech savvy and there is a strong bias, but it shows that the interest is quite high in the UK among this group