Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StealthP3D]

I posed this same question a few weeks ago, inferring the same conclusion. However there has been discussion on TMC about Tesla setting up an auto insurance entity that could provide owners with reasonably priced policies by leveraging the very detailed driving data Tesla collects.

There is great profit potential here for Tesla because they can use their Neural Net technology and VERY detailed driving data to automatically determine the risk for each driver. The neural net will pattern match driving habits with accident data and automatically rate complex data for accident risk. I suspect it will not necessarily be people who drive a bit faster than the speed limit or people who have a ticket or two. Their neural net will identify indicators no one thought of and these indicators will likely remain unknown, only being automatically coded into the artificial intelligence that runs the neural net so customers can't game the system by driving in a certain manner. Tesla might not even know what the indicators are because the neural net will be doing all the work.

The more their risk model deviates from the ones in use by traditional insurers, the more customers they can steal from traditional insurers while keeping their payout/premium ratio low. They can outright refuse to insure the riskiest 20% and give great rates to young drivers who are actually more safe than many 60-year-olds.

The GREAT thing about this is that as Tesla steals these low-risk drivers from traditional insurers, those insurers will find their ratio of payout/premiums is rising so they will have to raise their rates to stay in business. This will allow Tesla to steal even more of their customers until traditional insurers are only insuring the highest risk drivers at very high premiums. At that point, Tesla can steal those customers as well, due to volume efficiencies. Knowledge is power!

 

[Speedr117]

Good news from Barclay except price of share.
A big Tesla skeptic on Wall Street raises his estimate for second-quarter earnings

This is not good news. They're doing their traditional MO of raising their forecast right before earnings so the headline will be "Tesla missed analyst expectations".

They've done this for a few quarters now. It's like how all of a sudden, after months of doom and gloom, analyst expected over 90,000 deliveries when they were reported! It's so transparent when you follow the stock, but to most casual observers, it looks like Tesla is always in trouble.

 

[Krugerrand]

The pattern overall to me looks like this: TSLA wants to go up more aggressively, but the moment it runs up too fast, massive selling blocks push it down again. This happens during regular trading hours, as well as in pre- and after hours.

The result: since the bottom of June 3rd we’ve had an average of about $10-12 gain per week: slow but somewhat steady.

If this trend continues we should be back to $300 levels in September and perhaps reach $350 by October. This is my hope.

We have to work on your type of *hope*. It’s pretty understated and well, not very hopeful.

 

[keydiver]

Tesla has made more power cheaper, not more expensive. ... Unlike a gas car, getting more power does not cause a 35% hit to your fuel economy. In fact, comparing it to the non-performance AWD with the same tires and wheels, there is zero hit to your economy (unless you actually use the extra performance).

I was actually just thinking about this yesterday, why the Tesla resonates with so broad an audience. For as long as I can remember, I have been a motorhead, driving high HP cars. But, every 5-10 years I would waffle, buy a more efficient car like a Honda CVCC, Mazda, Prius, etc, but I keep going back to fast cars. I was always conflicted, so it was an unending cycle, until Tesla. I love driving my wife's Model 3. It has the same or better 1/4 mile and 0-60 performance as the Dodge Stealth Twin Turbo I used to own, but at the same time gets the equivalent of 130 mpg! I think a lot of people feel just like me, that the Tesla is finally the perfect fit, performance without the rough idle, loud noise, bad gas mileage, and constant maintenance.

 

[tschmidty]

I've posted the following questions, which are currently under review (sorry @neroden, say.com has a 280 character limit so I had to significantly butcher your question):

Say

Many Tesla owners are finding it exceptionally difficult to communicate with Tesla service. Many wait 5 hours on hold or are caught in phone tree loops. Several service centers can only be scheduled by phone, which is nigh impossible. What is being done about Tesla service hell?

I personally don't think calling it "service hell" is helpful. Pejoratives don't seem particularly useful and simply calling it problems seems more likely to get an answer.

 

[StealthP3D]

The result: since the bottom of June 3rd we’ve had an average of about $10-12 gain per week: slow but somewhat steady.

If this trend continues we should be back to $300 levels in September and perhaps reach $350 by October. This is my hope.

I suspect any hope that the share price rise will be slow but steady will turn out to be misplaced hope. TSLA has never been that kind of stock and it's not about to become that kind of stock in the foreseeable future.

I would advise that it's not that productive to constantly stare at the number that is the value of your brokerage account.

 

[MP3Mike]

In what possible way can having a simpler white paint add to "service repair complexity"? Only one. Bad service/delivery communications. Which we *know is a Tesla problem*.

I think the "service repair complexity" that Elon was referring to is that they now stock factory pre-painted bolt on body items at their service centers that do body repairs. (Things like front/rear bumper covers.) Having to stock an additional color would both take more space and cost more money. While they will still support your plain white Model S I doubt they stock pre-painted parts for it.

I highly doubt that it is an issue of service people being able to tell the difference between plain white and pearl white.

 

[Mars ☰mperor]

I believe the v3 rollout of the new Vegas Supercharger might also have been accelerated by the recent "how long does it take to take a road-trip from L.A. to Vegas and back in an EV" articles lately, such as:

L.A. to Vegas and Back by Electric Car: 8 Hours Driving; 5 More Plugged In
​

With a Long Range Model S (or a Model 3) you can go non-stop and recharge within about 30 minutes to gain ~300 miles for the leg back.

I doubt Americans can build things that fast.

Las Vegas is not in China IIRC.

 

[Krugerrand]

Tesla Model 3 standard edition price now reduced from £41,550 including Plug-in grant

The recent price reduction for Model 3 has attracted a lot of interest on the largest deals aggregator in the UK - hotukdeals. Based on the voting of the members, the new pricing is currently ranking as the hottest all time "Car Deals & Offer".
As expected, this has triggered a major debate on the forum (18 pages with comments) about the pros and cons of buying an EV / Tesla or about the state subsidies, etc.
The audience of this site is quite young and tech savvy and there is a strong bias, but it shows that the interest is quite high in the UK among this group

The strong bias from the quite young, tech savvy audience is what exactly? In favor of Teslas? In favor of EVs generally? Not in favor of Tesla? Not in favor of EVs generally? Think the new pricing is still too high for Teslas? Think the new pricing is attractive?

 

[KarenRei]

I personally don't think calling it "service hell" is helpful. Pejoratives don't seem particularly useful and simply calling it problems seems more likely to get an answer.

Oh god, are people doing this "Phrase things as horribly as possible in Say in order to cause negative PR to Tesla in the ER" thing again? :Þ G**d***it, what's wrong with people? :Þ

I loved how Tesla handled it last time. They didn't read the question, they just made a statement about service plans, then noted that they'd covered that Say question and moved onto the next one. Everyone seemed happy about that approach, including the askers.

 

[Pezpunk]

The strong bias from the quite young, tech savvy audience is what exactly? In favor of Teslas? In favor of EVs generally? Not in favor of Tesla? Not in favor of EVs generally? Think the new pricing is still too high for Teslas? Think the new pricing is attractive?

i can't tell you how many 20-somethings tell me their next car is going to be a Tesla. Anyone over 35 is a MUCH MUCH harder sell.

 

[sparcs]

I've posted the following questions, which are currently under review (sorry @neroden, say.com has a 280 character limit so I had to significantly butcher your question):

Say

Many Tesla owners are finding it exceptionally difficult to communicate with Tesla service. Many wait 5 hours on hold or are caught in phone tree loops. Several service centers can only be scheduled by phone, which is nigh impossible. What is being done about Tesla service hell?

now we just need to get it upvoted to the top so we get a real answer.

 

[Navin]

 

[StealthP3D]

i can't tell you how many 20-somethings tell me their next car is going to be a Tesla. Anyone over 35 is a MUCH MUCH harder sell.

As people age their brains "fossilize" and this gives them a natural predisposition to continue doing things in the comfortable way they have always done them. I'm 56 but I recognized this when I was 14 and vowed to never forget it. I do notice that a certain percentage of older folks seem immune to this "fossilization" of the brain and their minds remain open with little apparent bias against age, sex and race and this quality extends into being able to easily accept newly adopted technologies like EV's without assuming it must be inferior to fossil fuels.

It does seem to be more common in liberals which makes sense considering that the defining quality of conservatism is to maintain the same order while liberals are more open to new ideas and changing things. That said, I have met plenty of conservatives who have the ability to see the world this way as well as liberals whose belief system is very "fossilized".

I bet the sales data shows Tesla buyers have an older age than new car buyers on average but perhaps it flips when only comparing car sales in the same price range.

 

[humbaba]

Fair enough, I'll change my description to "P trims are selling crack to acceleration addicts, and only tells you how many of those addicts there are and how much money they have to feed their addiction".

Acceleration on normal Tesla trims is so good that you really have to be an addict to want a P trim.

I guess that makes me an addict without the money for the drug

 

[KarenRei]

now we just need to get it upvoted to the top so we get a real answer.

Well, I think I know what your responses to this survey will be then

Tesla Service Survey

I created a survey as to what people's experience here with Tesla's service has been, and for how many people it matches the phrasing in that question. This is irrespective of the question of whether it's a good idea to phrase a question in a FUDdy manner to bbe read off during a very public business event - this is just to see if people agree with the claims being made therein.

This is only for Tesla owners, living in an area served by Tesla (eg. I imagine that most Tesla Iceland owners service is bad... because it doesn't exist here). Please take part.

 

[replicant]

View attachment 431597

Found that:

>Tesla Inc. Volkswagen AG and LG Chem Ltd. are among companies interested in building battery plants for electric vehicles in Indonesia, Coordinating Minister for Maritime Affairs Luhut Pandjaitan told reporters in Jakarta on Friday. Total investment could reach about $4 billion, he said.

Toyota’s US$2b pledge revs up Indonesia’s electric car push - Business News | The Star Online

Doesn't look reliable to me

 

[KarenRei]

View attachment 431597

Tesla working with LG? That would be weird.
Tesla building a GF in Indonesia? That would be weird.

There is one thing about Indonesia of note re: batteries, however, in that it's an emerging potential source of battery-grade nickel sulfate. New HPAL tech for processing laterites is being first applied at scale in Indonesia (it'll produce cobalt sulphate as a side product, too).

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

View attachment 431597

Looks like an old story (November 2018):

Construction on $4B Indonesia EV battery project begins Jan 2019 – Minister

 

[CyberDutchie]

We have to work on your type of *hope*. It’s pretty understated and well, not very hopeful.

Haha, well, this is the investor thread, and $350 is the break-even for my under-water call options, so that’s what I’m hoping: to be able to get rid of these without loss. I have much bigger “hopes” for my core holding of coarse.