Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

...and Papafox's as well

X-posted for effect. Paging @Papafox

Short-sellers, be afraid of Elon Musk, be very afraid!

 

[Artful Dodger]

Tesla has 16 models?

Yes, you'd probably have to add previously available car versions to this list: (unless you include silly options like sun roofs and interiors)

1. Model S 75D
2. Model S 100D
3. Model S P100D
4. Model X 75D
5. Model X 100D
6. Model X P100D
7. Model 3 LR
8. Model 3 AWD
9. Model 3 AWD-P
   
10. Model 3 SR+

Cheers!

 

[traxila]

One of the main attack strategies on TSLA by the shorts recently has been the relentless attacks and FUD about how China is a disaster waiting to turn into a catastrophe, usually with no mention made of any factory that might start production sometime in the near future.

Maybe because western investors are more informed about Tesla's western sales (which appear to be strong and continuing to ramp)? So it makes sense to attack China as facts are less well known?

Don't know, but for some reason this swift boating strategy has proved particularly effective in hammering the TSLA SP, despite the fact that for over a year now it has been obvious for anyone paying attention that China will prove to be a strong near term and long term catalyst for both TSLA sales and the SP.

This latest development is a direct and resounding repudiation of this ridiculous point of attack by the shorts. Look for frenzied attempts to bury the news and change the topic re: TSLA. Maybe some articles about how Musk seemed addled and confused in China due to his excessive drug use? That is always a good go to when figuring out what the new FUD talking point list is.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Hold ur damn shares

Aren't you the one who says 'TSLA always fills the gaps'? That implies $223.40 at some point to fill the gap, and max pain is still at $220.

I think a lot will depend on volume today. Market makers will likely succeed in capping this rise if volume remains low. Its in their interest to not let the SP get out of control with the Options expiry today.

 

[SpaceCash]

I'm so glad I (slightly more than) doubled down at 212. My basis is now 225 so I'm green

 

[The Accountant]

One of the main attack strategies on TSLA by the shorts recently has been the relentless attacks and FUD about how China is a disaster waiting to turn into a catastrophe, usually with no mention made of any factory that might start production sometime in the near future.

Maybe because western investors are more informed about Tesla's western sales (which appear to be strong and continuing to ramp)? So it makes sense to attack China as facts are less well known?

Don't know, but for some reason this swift boating strategy has proved particularly effective in hammering the TSLA SP, despite the fact that for over a year now it has been obvious for anyone paying attention that China will prove to be a strong near term and long term catalyst for both TSLA sales and the SP.

This latest development is a direct and resounding repudiation of this ridiculous point of attack by the shorts. Look for frenzied attempts to bury the news and change the topic re: TSLA. Maybe some articles about how Musk seemed addled and confused in China due to his excessive drug use? That is always a good go to when figuring out what the new FUD talking point list is.

Today may not be the day....but the Shorts are dealing with their version of the Prisoner's Dilemma....if we all stay together, we can withstand the pain....however; if some of us talk ("cover"), the rest of us are screwed (squeezed). Wall Street gets back to work after Labor Day and I suspect there will be more buyers than sellers of TSLA at these prices....Shorts know this...Do they get out now or hope that the Prisoners stay together?

 

[Unpilot]

I'm so glad I (slightly more than) doubled down at 212. My basis is now 225 so I'm green

Jealous ...I need about 70 more...but have NO DOUBT it is coming.

 

[Navin]

Today may not be the day....but the Shorts are dealing with their version of the Prisoner's Dilemma....if we all stay together, we can withstand the pain....however; if some of us talk ("cover"), the rest of us are screwed (squeezed). Wall Street gets back to work after Labor Day and I suspect there will be more buyers than sellers of TSLA at these prices....Shorts know this...Do they get out now or hope that the Prisoners stay together?

Don’t drop the soap - chanos

 

[anthonyj]

Aren't you the one who says 'TSLA always fills the gaps'? That implies $223.40 at some point to fill the gap, and max pain is still at $220.

I think a lot will depend on volume today. Market makers will likely succeed in capping this rise if volume remains low. Its in their interest to not let the SP get out of control with the Options expiry today.

Ya it does almost always fill gap-ups quickly. Volume is very high pre-market though so it might not happen. It’s been trading in the $210-235 range for months too so it’s ready to make a big move

 

[Antares Nebula]

The FUD will be that the sales tax cut was to spur demand due to weak sales.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I still think China will give Tesla tariff exemption for the S and X sometime this fall, before the major tariff increase happens. Not at all surprised Tesla got tax exemption. A couple of us here having been saying for months that as Giga 3 becomes operational, China will shower Tesla with exemptions.

 

[hobbes]

Something about exemption from Chinese auto tax...

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

 

[Artful Dodger]

Ya it does almost always fill gap-ups quickly. Volume is very high pre-market though so it might not happen. It’s been trading in the $210-235 range for months too so it’s ready to make a big move

Looks like a cut'n'dried case of Pre-market Manipulation to me:
(look at 'em walk down the SP in a straight line)

EDIT: 622,377 shares of TSLA traded before 9:00 am ET.

VWAP was $231.07 for trades totalling $143.8 M​

Yeah, I'd say it's gonna be a heavy volume day.

Cheers!

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Might jump in within the first hour of trading with the funds that just cleared last night. Was hoping the share price was gonna stay around 215/share until the funds cleared and thought I missed mu chance when I saw it jump 5%. Now its trending lower. Gonna hope MMD can bring it down to 225 and then I'll jump in. I think it will finish strongly throughout the day. Possible Aug sales estimates over the weekend could lead to a very strong close.

 

[sweter]

Hopefully it IS a sign of decent EU demand. UK interest anecdotally seems very very strong. The #1 concern i hear is charging infrastructure. Not superchargers, but home charging availability.

Last time Tesla was saying there's strong demand they dropped prices...

 

[anon]

I still think China will give Tesla tariff exemption for the S and X sometime this fall, before the major tariff increase happens. Not at all surprised Tesla got tax exemption. A couple of us here having been saying for months that as Giga 3 becomes operational, China will shower Tesla with exemptions.

Today's news is good for Chinese-made Model 3 SR+, but isn't that big a deal for S, X, and other Model 3 variants that will ship from the US, in light of the tariff increase you just mentioned (and existing large tariffs on all foreign cars imported to China). Exemption from those tariffs would be much more significant news, so I think the initial share price pre-market may have been due to people seeing the tax break news and initially thinking it meant a tariff exemption.

 

[Stars aligned]

Ya it does almost always fill gap-ups quickly. Volume is very high pre-market though so it might not happen. It’s been trading in the $210-235 range for months too so it’s ready to make a big move

It gapped up many times in 2013, and none of those got filled until today.

There are some scenarios where such happens. Especially if Mr. Market suddenly comes to the conclusion that a stock is grossly undervalued. And Mr. Chanos steps on the soap.

 

[Bet the House]

Looks like a cut'n'dried case of Pre-market Manipulation to me:
(look at 'em walk down the SP in a straight line)

View attachment 448330

EDIT: 622,377 shares of TSLA traded before 9:00 am ET.

VWAP was $231.07 for trades totalling $143.8 M​

Yeah, I'd say it's gonna be a heavy volume day.

Cheers!

The Friday before labor day last year had 5.4m shares traded. The avg before and after labor day was around 7.5m.

Compared to this year where we are avg around 5m shares this week. We probably would have had 3-4 million shares traded today without any news which would have been easier to manipulate (thinking of max pain here) but it we are over 5-6 million which I think we will, it will be much more difficult.

 

[Silentk]

...and Papafox's as well

@tivoboy - thoughts pls?

 

[Unpilot]

This is some serious early volume compared to the last few weeks.