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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Looks like Tesla's navigation system is getting an upgrade. Also note that it seems like Tesla is still interested in eventually doing battery swaps at some point in the future:

Tesla Will Give Drivers More Options With New Navigation Features — Patents Filed

Tesla Will Give Drivers More Options With New Navigation Features — Patents Filed | CleanTechnica

Just because they patent something doesn't mean they are going to actually put it into production. For example look at the Tesla patent that shows scavenging battery/drive-unit heat to provide heat to the cabin. They never actually did that. (But a lot of people assume they did because they saw the patent.)
 
Thanks a lot China. I get 30k freed up to maybe pick up some shares in the sub 230/220 area and now this. I can't decide if buying more at 229 is a good play right now. I don't see any major jump until GF3 starts producing.
What ? We were at 265 recently. So, at 230, SP is $18 above the recent lows and $35 below recent highs. In a month we have P&D report and in 2 months ER.

IMO, currently the downside risk is connected to macros, not TSLA. Not an advice.
 
Just because they patent something doesn't mean they are going to actually put it into production. For example look at the Tesla patent that shows scavenging battery/drive-unit heat to provide heat to the cabin. They never actually did that. (But a lot of people assume they did because they saw the patent.)

? I'm quite sure the coolant loop runs through motor, battery and cabin.
 
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16 Models? Can someone explain this?
EDNvRaQVUAIgzDx.jpg
 
Thanks a lot China. I get 30k freed up to maybe pick up some shares in the sub 230/220 area and now this. I can't decide if buying more at 229 is a good play right now. I don't see any major jump until GF3 starts producing.

If you decide the current price is too high, you can sell puts. At least you make money by not getting the shares.
 
Here are the latest charts on reddit comments in the daily discussion thread in the teslamotors subreddit updated for August. I put dummy values in for today and tomorrow since I have time to do it today and probably not next week.

upload_2019-8-30_10-15-40.png


upload_2019-8-30_10-15-57.png


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edit: I thought a hard number might also be useful. The Q2 monthly average was 446 and the Q3 average is 341 for the 2 months we have so far. That is a decline of about 23%. Of course the actual order rate may be higher, this is just the rate of people who post in reddit about it. My takeaway is that things still look solid by this metric.
 
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Karen: I find most of your comments informative and intelligent. It's a shame that you think you can outsmart the market. Buy and hold shares. Options= loser; "trading shares"= loser. Sorry, but it's actually quite boring to build wealth. One has to give up the rush of gambling. GLTY.

Are you saying that you don't buy at a low?
Should I not have bought when the market was low?
Should I only buy at lows, but never recover said money, and thus never have any cash on hand?

There's was no attempt to "outsmart the market" involved. I put in some of my free cash that I have on hand. Stock went up. I took out roughly the amount of cash I put in (goal: maintain roughly constant free cash), so I'm back where I started, and my position is left in a better position when I started. What's the problem with that? And the market had gone down further? I just would have waited then, with less cash on hand, until I could shore up my free cash.
 
So with insurance there could be two effect on bottom line.

1) assuming 200k customer sign up for Tesla Insurance, the effective annual revenue will be $300m (avg 1.5k a year premium). The insurance margin can be in 20-30% so this could add $60-90m in annual profit. CORECTION: I was corrected that Tesla only gets commission on this. Which means it is pure PBT impact of $45m. Less than I thought

2) the take rate for FSD will increase. Let’s say 10% more US customers buy FSD, it will directly add to a bottomline of 90m revenue and profit.

So the insurance can add a good $150m in PBT. This will grow sequentially as more people sign up for insurance.
 
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Are you saying that you don't buy at a low?
Should I not have bought when the market was low?
Should I only buy at lows, but never recover said money, and thus never have any cash on hand?

There's was no attempt to "outsmart the market" involved. I put in some of my free cash that I have on hand. Stock went up. I took out roughly the amount of cash I put in (goal: maintain roughly constant free cash), so I'm back where I started, and my position is left in a better position when I started. What's the problem with that? And the market had gone down further? I just would have waited then, with less cash on hand, until I could shore up my free cash.
Several times I have preached here about my over-fifty years of investing (Twenty as a money manager/broker) and my reasons for not doing anything other that buying equity shares and holding, if one wishes to create wealth. If you want to bend over dollars to pick up pennies, that's your business. Each to his own.
 
So with insurance there could be two effect on bottom line.

1) assuming 200k customer sign up for Tesla Insurance, the effective annual revenue will be $300m (avg 1.5k a year premium). The insurance margin can be in 20-30% so this could add $60-90m in annual profit.

2) the take rate for FSD will increase. Let’s say 10% more US customers buy FSD, it will directly add to a bottomline of 90m revenue and profit.

So the insurance can add a good $150m in PBT. This will grow sequentially as more people sign up for insurance.
Tesla only gets 15% commission as broker.