Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Tslynk67]

$235 is the new $233. Going way against the Nasdaq again today. Would be nice to keep this kind of momentum going into the delivery report...

 

[Nocturnal]

I got my Model S back in March 2013. At that time two Tesla's meeting up was practically a "pull over to the side of the road and let's talk awhile" event.

On topic: Yes, you can help affect TSLA value. There are 644 Drive Electric Week events coming up starting this weekend. Tesla owners or any EV owners please enlist in an event near you. Show your car, give rides or drives, share your enthusiasm. I am doing three events this year alone. My past experience at these events has been great and I have given out a serious number of referral codes at these events.
National Drive Electric Week

This. Get with your local club and do events. I've done a half dozen so far this year, talked to a few hundred people and given 20+ rides.

 

[Tslynk67]

I guess that was a load of sell orders triggered at $235, helped along by the bears and shorts - seemed too dramatic and sustained otherwise.

 

[Pezpunk]

So let's take a quick status check on Musk's stated and reiterated "360k-400k units" guidance.

Q1 : 63,000 deliveries
Q2 : 95,200 deliveries

Q3 we can only guess, but personally my very rough projection based on current trends is 100,000 deliveries. I think this is potentially a bit conservative, and could be low by as much as 8k units, but i'm trying to recognize my own bias here and not inflate expectations. We dont really know.

So, recognizing we're just estimating Q3, that puts us at 258,200 units after three quarters, and needing 102,000 cars in Q4 to make the lower bound of Musk's guidance.

So looking at this chart of Tesla's deliveries by quarter:

In the company's history since 2012, there's only been one quarter (2016) where Q4 deliveries were less than Q3. Q4 has historically been pretty strong for the company (is this an annual version of the end-of-quarter "wave" effect?).

Anyway, the bottom line is *IF* our estimates of ~100k deliveries is on the money for Q3, then projecting another ~102k for Q4 seems perfectly reasonable. This means meeting the 360k threshold of Musk's guidance looks quite probable, even if the Chinese factory isn't delivering in volume yet (i think counting on the Chinese factory being wildly ahead of schedule is unwise).

It's hard to see a path to the 400k end of the spectrum, but just meeting the 360k figure would prove loads of skeptics wrong.

 

[Buckminster]

I know this won´t be popular - but I would cut VW some slack regarding electrification (not regarding diesel gate). At least Diess´ VW is showing a serious initiative to move to electric, unlike many other incumbent auto makers. And moving away from what you have done for centuries takes a lot of effort and will lead to internal friction, which is what we are seeing here. Tesla has had starting problems, too - if we´d start gloating now that´s not good style IMHO.

VAG doing really well. They only have 1 problem. Their EVs are terrible.

 

[sparcs]

Q3 we can only guess, but personally my very rough projection based on current trends is 100,000 deliveries. I think this is potentially a bit conservative, and could be low by as much as 8k units, but i'm trying to recognize my own bias here and not inflate expectations. We dont really know.

So, recognizing we're just estimating Q3, that puts us at 258,200 units after three quarters, and needing 102,000 cars in Q4 to make the lower bound of Musk's guidance.

and Q4 will also include the wind down of the Fed tax credit in the USA so there will be some extra momentum there for sales.

Hard to see how Tesla won't at least meet their guidance for the year.

 

[AlexS]

VAG doing really well. They only have 1 problem. Their EVs are terrible.

VAG should give free hands to Skoda to develop EV-s, Skoda knows how to make nice affordable cars for wider public. But in the past VAG has been blocking several Skoda projects (not in EV space) because Skoda started to crush VW in several markets.

 

[wipster]

In silicone valley it's simply impractical to wave to other Tesla, and even if you do, others look at you weird.

What about Silicon Valley? Sorry, couldn't resist. There should be a Tesla sensor that when activated received a nice message from your fellow Teslian that pops up on your screen... that way you can virtually wave, 'cause you know you want to.

 

[Tslynk67]

Silicone Valley Girls was a thing when I was younger. Something you watched, ahem, alone...

 

[RobStark]

So VW shows the ID3 but states the ID3 will not start deliveries in mass till next summer and some of you are flipping out? Ever hear of the term the pot calling the kettle black?
.

We kept being told once grownups like VW enter the BEV space in a serious manner they will kick Tesla's ass in a very professional manner.

No production hells, no tents, no quality issues, no delivery issues etc.

Millions of BEVs streaming out of factories,onto dealer lots, into customer garages like Swiss clock precision.

 

[RobStark]

EV startup Rivian nets new $350M investment

Plymouth-based electric vehicle startup Rivian Automotive LLC announced Tuesday it netted a $350 million investment from Atlanta-based Cox Automotive as the automaker readies to produce its first vehicles.

The investment follows $500 million from Ford Motor Co., and $700 million from Amazon.com Inc. earlier this year. Rivian aims to launch its first electric pickup truck and electric SUV by 2021. The automaker is currently renovating an old Mitsubishi plant in central Illinois where it plans to start building those vehicles late next year.

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

So let's take a quick status check on Musk's stated and reiterated "360k-400k units" guidance.

Q1 : 63,000 deliveries
Q2 : 95,200 deliveries

Q3 we can only guess, but personally my very rough projection based on current trends is 100,000 deliveries. I think this is potentially a bit conservative, and could be low by as much as 8k units, but i'm trying to recognize my own bias here and not inflate expectations. We dont really know.

So, recognizing we're just estimating Q3, that puts us at 258,200 units after three quarters, and needing 102,000 cars in Q4 to make the lower bound of Musk's guidance.

So looking at this chart of Tesla's deliveries by quarter:

In the company's history since 2012, there's only been one quarter (2016) where Q4 deliveries were less than Q3. Q4 has historically been pretty strong for the company (is this an annual version of the end-of-quarter "wave" effect?).

Anyway, the bottom line is *IF* our estimates of ~100k deliveries is on the money for Q3, then projecting another ~102k for Q4 seems perfectly reasonable. This means meeting the 360k threshold of Musk's guidance looks quite probable, even if the Chinese factory isn't delivering in volume yet (i think counting on the Chinese factory being wildly ahead of schedule is unwise).

It's hard to see a path to the 400k end of the spectrum, but just meeting the 360k figure would prove loads of skeptics wrong.

After the first 2 months of Q3, Europe deliveries are 2245 ahead of Q2 (+26%). US deliveries (per InsideEVs estimates) are 3400 ahead of Q2 (+12%). Keep in mind the US numbers are just estimates, so maybe we’re only 1k ahead or maybe we’re 6k ahead.

Combine US & Europe numbers, and we’re 5645 ahead of Q2 (+15%). I don’t know of any solid numbers for Canada, China, or rest of the world.

If Q3 ends up 15% ahead of Q2, there’ll be about 109k deliveries, which would be huge & make profitability likely. If Q3 ends up 5645 ahead, there’ll be about 101k deliveries— which would be a huge new record, but would leave profitability in doubt, unless Tesla does a great job with margins.

Of course, deliveries could end up lower than 101k or higher than 109k, but it’s hard to see how. Less than 101k would fly in the face of the delivery numbers we have so far. More than 109k would require production increases that are almost too large to imagine.

 

[Tim S]

So let's take a quick status check on Musk's stated and reiterated "360k-400k units" guidance.

Q1 : 63,000 deliveries
Q2 : 95,200 deliveries

Q3 we can only guess, but personally my very rough projection based on current trends is 100,000 deliveries. I think this is potentially a bit conservative, and could be low by as much as 8k units, but i'm trying to recognize my own bias here and not inflate expectations. We dont really know.

So, recognizing we're just estimating Q3, that puts us at 258,200 units after three quarters, and needing 102,000 cars in Q4 to make the lower bound of Musk's guidance.

So looking at this chart of Tesla's deliveries by quarter:

In the company's history since 2012, there's only been one quarter (2016) where Q4 deliveries were less than Q3. Q4 has historically been pretty strong for the company (is this an annual version of the end-of-quarter "wave" effect?).

Anyway, the bottom line is *IF* our estimates of ~100k deliveries is on the money for Q3, then projecting another ~102k for Q4 seems perfectly reasonable. This means meeting the 360k threshold of Musk's guidance looks quite probable, even if the Chinese factory isn't delivering in volume yet (i think counting on the Chinese factory being wildly ahead of schedule is unwise).

It's hard to see a path to the 400k end of the spectrum, but just meeting the 360k figure would prove loads of skeptics wrong.

IMO they will beat 360K easily, and probably beat 400K. Without GF3. No one seems to remember the leaked email early in Q3 about significant increases in production coming.

 

[Pezpunk]

After the first 2 months of Q3, Europe deliveries are 2245 ahead of Q2 (+26%). US deliveries (per InsideEVs estimates) are 3400 ahead of Q2 (+12%). Keep in mind the US numbers are just estimates, so maybe we’re only 1k ahead or maybe we’re 6k ahead.

Combine US & Europe numbers, and we’re 5645 ahead of Q2 (+15%). I don’t know of any solid numbers for Canada, China, or rest of the world.

If Q3 ends up 15% ahead of Q2, there’ll be about 109k deliveries, which would be huge & make profitability likely. If Q3 ends up 5645 ahead, there’ll be about 101k deliveries— which would be a huge new record, but would leave profitability in doubt, unless Tesla does a great job with margins.

Of course, deliveries could end up lower than 101k or higher than 109k, but it’s hard to see how. Less than 101k would fly in the face of the delivery numbers we have so far. More than 109k would require production increases that are almost too large to imagine.

i feel like my post said pretty much the exact same thing. 100k-108k, roughly. i went with 100k to account for my own fanboy bias.

 

[kbM3]

When Down is Up and Up is Down

Have we reached peak smear campaign?

 

[omgwtfbyobbq]

After the first 2 months of Q3, Europe deliveries are 2245 ahead of Q2 (+26%). US deliveries (per InsideEVs estimates) are 3400 ahead of Q2 (+12%). Keep in mind the US numbers are just estimates, so maybe we’re only 1k ahead or maybe we’re 6k ahead.

Combine US & Europe numbers, and we’re 5645 ahead of Q2 (+15%). I don’t know of any solid numbers for Canada, China, or rest of the world.

If Q3 ends up 15% ahead of Q2, there’ll be about 109k deliveries, which would be huge & make profitability likely. If Q3 ends up 5645 ahead, there’ll be about 101k deliveries— which would be a huge new record, but would leave profitability in doubt, unless Tesla does a great job with margins.

Of course, deliveries could end up lower than 101k or higher than 109k, but it’s hard to see how. Less than 101k would fly in the face of the delivery numbers we have so far. More than 109k would require production increases that are almost too large to imagine.

I wouldn't say it's too large to imagine. Maybe it's not likely, but it seems possible. In Q2 of last year Tesla produced 10k more Model S/X than they did in Q2 of this year. If they could get S/X production back up, they would need another 12k of Model 3 production to hit 109k total, so a 15% increase in 3 production.

 

[CyberDutchie]

I wonder if these type of articles is what’s driving TSLA stock price up, looks like Germany’s big-3 are no longer dragging their feet when it comes to EVs. The race is on and Tesla is the standard to beat.

Automakers turn on style to try to switch SUV fans to electric

Now a generation of new chief executives including Daimler's Ola Kaellenius, BMW's Oliver Zipse and Volkswagen's Herbert Diess are attempting to recast the industry's image with fresh modern designs and cars that pollute less.

“We have moved on from treating the electric car mainly as an engineering challenge. Now electric cars are getting sexy,” Gorden Wagener, Chief Design Officer at Mercedes-Benz parent Daimler told Reuters.

“Design can speed up change and the acceptance of new technologies," BMW's design chief Adrian van Hooydonk said at the carmaker's press conference on Tuesday.

 

[Fact Checking]

IMO they will beat 360K easily, and probably beat 400K. Without GF3. No one seems to remember the leaked email early in Q3 about significant increases in production coming.

Note that the email from JG isn't necessarily about Model 3 production increase:

Tesla is preparing a mysterious production capacity increase - Electrek​

If they increased production beyond the 5-10% QoQ that would result in the estimated 100k-105k deliveries, where did those cars go? Europe, China and RHD countries seem to be accounted for, and InsideEVs's Q3 US delivery numbers are modest so far.

 

[elasalle]

I wonder if these type of articles is what’s driving TSLA stock price up, looks like Germany’s big-3 are no longer dragging their feet when it comes to EVs. The race is on and Tesla is the standard to beat.

Automakers turn on style to try to switch SUV fans to electric

Now a generation of new chief executives including Daimler's Ola Kaellenius, BMW's Oliver Zipse and Volkswagen's Herbert Diess are attempting to recast the industry's image with fresh modern designs and cars that pollute less.

“We have moved on from treating the electric car mainly as an engineering challenge. Now electric cars are getting sexy,” Gorden Wagener, Chief Design Officer at Mercedes-Benz parent Daimler told Reuters.

“Design can speed up change and the acceptance of new technologies," BMW's design chief Adrian van Hooydonk said at the carmaker's press conference on Tuesday.

To Add ... The Expectations that so many had on Tsla Killa vapor like (taycan, ID 3) is Evaporating ...
Physics 101 ... Vapor Evaporates

 

[Tslynk67]

Nice to break through $235 after fracturing our skulls on the previous attempt.

And against general sentiment too. Are markets getting a whiff that deliveries are going to be good? Profits may be coming?