Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Fact Checking]

Ihor is reporting NIO short interest 21.5% of float with 36.8% borrow fee, while Tesla s
hort interest is 27.8% of float with only .58% percent borrow fee. Why such a drastic difference in fees?
Ihor Dusaniwsky on Twitter

Ihor's reply (for a different stock):

Twitter

"Because there is much more $GOOS shares still available to borrow compared to $HEXO shares. Total available lendable shares vary from stock to stock - usually between 40% to 60% of float but sometimes higher, sometimes lower. That is why rates fluctuate between stocks."​

Basically the "tradeable float" of a stock is overestimating the true "shortable float" which is lower.

This, if true, also falsifies the "Tesla naked shorting" conspiracy theory: if market makers are able to short with impunity and can short arbitrary amounts of TSLA, why did the borrowing rate increase to 20% last May? Why is it below 1% today with a similar number of shares shorted?

The reason: there's a real supply of shortable shares, which can become constrained - but which expands (slowly) with more lendable shares.

There's over a dozen "market makers" for Tesla: if the naked short selling conspiracy was true they'd all have to conspire to artificially increase rates to 20%: just one market maker could outbid them with 19% rates and reap all the financing profits...

Sorry @Hock1, I'm with Ihor's explanation of market mechanics here.

I agree that the 3 day delivery requirement allows quick swing-shorting shenanigans, which can manipulate the price - until a bigger fish comes along and takes advantage of the MMD.

Naked shorting doesn't seem to exist for long term short positions of ~38 million TSLA shares short currently: they are all paired with real borrowable stock.

 

[KarenRei]

Reminder of Q2 at this time:

https://electrek.co/2019/06/30/tesla-very-close-record-deliveries/

A source familiar with Tesla’s sales and delivery effort updated Electrek on the progress and said that the company will be “very close” to achieving its delivery goal of 33,000 vehicles in June in North America.

As of yesterday, Tesla was within 2,000 deliveries, which is close to the goal, but it’s still a lot of deliveries for just over a day.

Based on our information, it sounds like Tesla is going to be at least over 32,000 deliveries in June in North America and over 60,000 total in the quarter. That’s an incredible number of vehicles for Tesla in the North American market, but it’s still unclear it would be enough to push global deliveries over 90,000 units.

It’s expected to be very close, but it will depend on a few markets.

...

It will simply lead to more favorable headlines for Tesla in the coming days, but even if they don’t beat the record, they will still have delivered close to 90,000 cars in the last 3 months and that’s great year-over-year growth.

Deliveries in Q2 were 95,2k.

 

[FreqFlyer]

Tesla Revenue Seen Stalling Out as Musk Aims for Delivery Record

So analysis think the S/X sales will crater for this quarter too? Does Tesla drop serious money to develop a new gen S/X that is also production efficient or will reusing the same 7 year old body with new insides (powertrain and interior) be enough to capture the consumer market's attention? I guess we will find out next year, until then the financial market is projecting less highend S/X sales will effect revenue though more units (Model 3) will be sold.

 

[Hock1]

Ihor's reply (for a different stock):

Twitter

"Because there is much more $GOOS shares still available to borrow compared to $HEXO shares. Total available lendable shares vary from stock to stock - usually between 40% to 60% of float but sometimes higher, sometimes lower. That is why rates fluctuate between stocks."​

Basically the "tradeable float" of a stock is overestimating the true "shortable float" which is lower.

This, if true, also falsifies the "Tesla naked shorting" conspiracy theory: if market makers are able to short with impunity and can short arbitrary amounts of TSLA, why did the borrowing rate increase to 20% last May? Why is it below 1% today with a similar number of shares shorted?

The reason: there's a real supply of shortable shares, which can become constrained - but which expands (slowly) with more lendable shares.

There's over a dozen "market makers" for Tesla: if the naked short selling conspiracy was true they'd all have to conspire to artificially increase rates to 20%: just one market maker could outbid them with 19% rates and reap all the financing profits...

Sorry @Hock1, I'm with Ihor's explanation of market mechanics here.

I agree that the 3 day delivery requirement allows quick swing-shorting shenanigans, which can manipulate the price - until a bigger fish comes along and takes advantage of the MMD.

Naked shorting doesn't seem to exist for long term short positions of ~38 million TSLA shares short currently: they are all paired with real borrowable stock.

Believe what you will.

 

[HG Wells]

I take it as Elon communicating pretty adequate to the expected results. So, people who hype 110k etc. are the ones doing it to themselves.

That 110,000 number came from new orders not built or delivered.

 

[Fact Checking]

What about the $300 calls I bought before Q3 2018. 100x return in 3 days lol. Way OTM calls/puts are the way to go with Tesla. Low cost, high risk, but monster gains

But you have to be ready to take a total loss 9 times out of 10 if you are making 1:100 leverage bets, and that's assuming you make incredibly good calls.

The drawdown on long term options can be mentally challenging as well.

Not advice.

 

[Fact Checking]

Reminder of Q2 at this time:

Tesla is 'VERY close' to record deliveries - Electrek





Deliveries in Q2 were 95,2k.

Yep, and Fred's source in Q2 were U.S. deliveries - his source was in the dark about international deliveries.

But, in Q2 they had a U.S. target of 30k deliveries, which they didn't entirely meet - and the leak was talking about how close U.S. deliveries were to the target - from which Fred extrapolated.

This Q3 leak specifically mentions 100k as the goal, with no U.S. target leaked, and said that they are within a few thousand of that 100k.

So it's possible that Elon sandbagged the 100k goal to motivate the team and to isolate/protect the real figures - but it's also possible that the real target leaked.

So this could play out either way: 98k is just as much of a possibility as 102k, IMHO.

I'll go with the 83k deliveries TMC consensus.

Not advice.

 

[flabellina]

?

Part of me is looking forward to the numbers simply because if the numbers come out and they delivered something like 102,00-104,000....well then we know Fred doesn't have credible sources. I don't think he's had credible sources for a while. Gotta get those clicks somehow though right Fred?

Edit: I could be wrong but I highly doubt Elon would send out that email a week before numbers are released unless he thought 100k minimum was in the bag. Fred coming out with an article the last day of the quarter saying they're off by thousands reeks of Fred knowing when to time his articles and the subject of his articles to get the most clicks. He knows everyone wants clues for numbers today and as everyone can see, I highly doubt the journalism of Fred and his "sources"

I was thinking... Is it possibile that the "objective" is not 100k?
Elon spoke about 100k as as being possibile, but did he refer to it as their actual internal target?

 

[M3Rider]

That 110,000 number came from new orders not built or delivered.

That's not what I referred to. I referred to people expecting Tesla to beat their own estimate by a big margin.

 

[davecolene0606]

Anybody see a way to break out income from Super Chargers? Just finished a road trip to NY (I95). While there are plenty of SC for lifers out there, The folks paying for SC are outnumbering us lifers and anecdotely, it appears to me that I am seeing folks at the SC that are paying for it.

So, I'm kinda wondering how close to break even/rev positive Tesla is getting on the network. Seems like we are getting close to plugging the SC whole and even enhancing the bottom line. I realize that SC is not meant to be a profit center but just paying for itself has multiple benefits to the rest of the biz.

Thoughts?

Fire Away!

 

[Dutchie]

Per 28/9 deliveries of M3 in the Netherlands stands @ 5523. 446 deliveries Friday and 258 on Saturday.

For reference as far as I can see, Ford Focus is second this month @ only 590. So M3 is outselling the second best selling car at almost 1:10!

 

[Mike117]

He's already made 30%. I'd be tempted to sell, honestly. That's good return.

Sold them for 2.35 (bought 1.70) -> 300$ return

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Brent is about to slip below $60 again. Bets on this week's "crisis" that boosts it back up to $65?

 

[StealthP3D]

Brent is about to slip below $60 again.

I don't understand your comment. How do you know Brent crude is about to slip below $60?

 

[Papafox]

Did some investors take the morning off? TSLA is still red but quite a lift in the past hour. Anyone know why it is rising back up after a steady decline all morning? Perhaps a short choked on his chicken nuggets?

TSLA recovered from today's dip because the dip was a manipulation and there are enough traders who understand the difference between a manipulation and a dip for reason. That's why I bought 100 shares at 236.7 today. If there's a nice enough rise before the P&D Report, I will sell these trading shares. If not, I will carry them forward however long is needed to realize a decent profit. Other traders are watching TSLA too.

By the way, today's manipulation was so flagrant that I filed a complaint with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

 

[ggr]

Mod: moved some posts about option expiry to
Advanced TSLA Options Trading
--ggr

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Almost none of this posting belongs in the Investors thread.

Mod: Agree. All posts about smart summon go to:
Autopilot disengagement, driving etc. out of main.
--ggr

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

TSLA recovered from today's dip because the dip was a manipulation and there are enough traders who understand the difference between a manipulation and a dip for reason. That's why I bought 100 shares at 236.7 today. If there's a nice enough rise before the P&D Report, I will sell these trading shares. If not, I will carry them forward however long is needed to realize a decent profit. Other traders are watching TSLA too.

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By the way, today's manipulation was so flagrant that I filed a complaint with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

I feel like until we get a new administration in, the SEC is a lost cause.

 

[EVNow]

I feel like until we get a new administration in, the SEC is a lost cause.

Jim Chanos hosted a fund raiser for Biden - just sayin'.

 

[Hock1]

I feel like until we get a new administration in, the SEC is a lost cause.

Yeah. The SEC has been broken and ineffective during the tenure of the past several administrations. No one should get their hopes up about that changing with a new administration.