Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[JusRelax]

I've said this before but it bears repeating, Musk seems extraordinarily relaxed and comfortable in his own skin. I would not under-estimate the importance of this.

We (TMC members) have said it before and it bears repeating, Musk's attitude/demeanor is a poor indicator of how well Tesla is faring.

That said, I must admit I am pretty positive going into the P&D report, and earnings report, but it isn't based on Musk's attitude/demeanor.

 

[madodel]

I would hope so but who knows. Stock might drop on great numbers anyways.

I am amazed though at the lack of buyers since Q1. Tesla has fixed a lot of the logistics and the Elon tweeting since then and it's been proven that battery production was the limiting issue for Q1, not demand for Model 3. I would have expected smart money to be pilling in throughout sept in anticipation for Q3 results at the beginning and mid point of October.....but there's been little interest. I would have to imagine smart money easily sees through the reporting bias on Tesla and can see the potential value and how Tesla is realizing that value. I said it before but......it's not rocket science

Today is the Jewish New Year. Perhaps that could explain some of light trading though it doesn't look like it is affecting the DOW or NASDAQ at all. People are just so used to TSLA being manipulated I guess they are waiting to see how EOQ plays out.

 

[Hock1]

This is a very good point and one I mostly agree with. Nobody knows when or exactly what will cause the manipulators to capitulate but it is always when their story is no longer tenable to the broader investor base. Musk knows this and it is apparent he has given up playing the game in favor of putting TSLA's nose to the grindstone and showing the world what they can do. I like what I'm seeing a lot.

It's my opinion that it will not necessarily take profitability to achieve capitulation as long as there are good margins on the cars and the numbers keep going up. It's also possible the capitulation will only be partial, ie. at a new higher price they will step back into the game. But the fact that they are manipulated is not, in and of itself, a reason not to invest. Because the effect of the manipulation is that you can pick up TSLA shares right now at a very good price. Manipulators can only do so much and they have likely been more effective recently (after two questionable quarters) than they will be able to be in the future (assuming Tesla continues to perform). So now is not a bad time to invest.

As an individual investor (and ex-investment advisor), who is well aware of how captured the market is by manipulators, I continue to buy TSLA shares knowing full well what I'll have to endure before I can expect my investment to pay off. Institutional investors, as a general matter, are looking for companies whose share prices more or less track the fortunes of the company. Manipulators can, as we know, cause a huge gulf between SP and value.

 

[anthonyj]

Tesla is only down 1%. It was $219 two trading days ago. Relax

 

[JusRelax]

I like the 10/4/2019 $250's for only $1.87!

Got a couple (literally 2) of these at $1.66. Must say I'm pleased so far.

 

[Nocturnal]

boing!

You must not be married.

LOL. Divorced.

 

[Zaxxon]

And now for something completely different...

Everyone lately has seemed focused on the obvious news this week--upcoming Q3 delivery numbers, V10 headliner features eg Smart Summon, Netflix, Spotify. But v10 brought several seemingly minor under-the-hood Autopilot improvements that I believe are being largely overlooked but have significant impact to the prowess and enjoyment of the system.

For context, I received v10 on my 3 Friday night (along with a bugfix update Saturday morning). I then took part in an autumn mountain drive with our local club on Sunday (side note: close to 60 Teslas participated--it really drove home how the base of vehicles has grown lately). This drive was around 200 miles, through everything from city streets to interstate highways to curvy mountain roads. Several things jumped out to me:

• Hand detection on the wheel is much improved in my car, given my hand placement. The car nags more quickly if hands are not on the wheel, but when my hand is on the wheel, the car now detects it virtually 100% of the time, even when that hand is exerting no artificial torque on the wheel. I just have my hand resting there like I prefer to do, either on the side or the bottom. This is a very marked change, and much for the better IMO. It will make it harder for people to be dumb and have hands off for any significant period, while simultaneously making it much less frustrating to keep the car happy through normal means.
• Phantom braking seems greatly reduced on this release. I've only driven maybe 100 miles on AP since the update so there's a chance that I'm overstating this, but I experienced only one significant phantom brake, and it was entering a construction zone.
• The lane change visualization improvement is nicer than I had expected. The old system wasn't particularly calling out for improvement, but it's nice to now see exactly how your car fits into the other lane's traffic when the change begins.
• Additional vehicle types (eg pickup truck) are depicted in the visualization. Specific lane line types are shown (eg double-yellow, normal solid line, dashed passing line). The 'dancing cars' are now virtually gone at stops. And the ability to manipulate the visualization is neat. These are each very small improvements but together they raise the confidence level in what the car is seeing.

In short, v10 is a significant release on the AP front, even discounting the inclusion of Smart Summon (which is cool but largely a party trick at present--needs a lot of work before it's going to be doing anything resembling FSD in a way that doesn't have the owner on edge / cringing at failed parking lot etiquette like pulling into spaces sideways, using bidirectional space however it desires, etc). The overall experience of driving on AP is significantly improved through the implementation of these small changes. As an owner, I'm happy. As an investor, I'm pleased.

 

[shrspeedblade]

I find it telling that my small position in $ALB (lithium co.) - which has a sizable short interest itself- is on a steady climb absent any news specific to it while $TSLA is on a big dip just prior to Q3 production numbers!

 

[Fact Checking]

Trading volume in TSLA is low today, which implies that the share price drop is not due to institutional selling. However the low volume does ease the job for manipulators. By pushing down the share price, they would hope to scare weak longs out of their positions and to encourage fresh shorting ahead of Tesla's report of quarterly delivery numbers. As soon as the manipulators have accomplished that mission, they likely will quickly cover their shorts and perhaps go long.

In my opinion, focus on quarterly delivery numbers can be misleading. Sights should be directed longer term regarding the likelihood of the eventual dominance in transportation by autonomous electric vehicles in general and Tesla in particular.

EDIT: As noted by @madodel, today is Jewish New Year, which would explain the light trading volume, not only in TSLA, but also in the overall market.

Years ago in this video, Jim Cramer explained how manipulation is accomplished:

Is there a transcript of this Jim Cramer interview somewhere perhaps, that would make it easier to quote it in discussions?

 

[elasalle]

Fri Market drop means some easy money in some other tech stocks.
Afternoon/tomorrow, I am sure shorts will be tempted to close their positions ...

 

[M3Rider]

Fred:

Tesla management has been keeping the actual progress numbers toward the goal secret, but sources say that they have communicated to employees last night that they were “a few thousands” short of the goal with a day left in the quarter.

 

[StealthP3D]

We (TMC members) have said it before and it bears repeating, Musk's attitude/demeanor is a poor indicator of how well Tesla is faring.

That said, I must admit I am pretty positive going into the P&D report, and earnings report, but it isn't based on Musk's attitude/demeanor.

That would depend upon the subtleties of how you interpret his demeanor. I like his calm. It looks like we came to the same conclusion based on different metrics.

 

[Hock1]

Just bought 5 of those for 1.70$

You have a better chance of getting hit by lightning.

 

[Cherry Wine]

You have a better chance of getting hit by lightning.

He's already made 30%. I'd be tempted to sell, honestly. That's good return.

 

[StealthP3D]

Fred:

Tesla management has been keeping the actual progress numbers toward the goal secret, but sources say that they have communicated to employees last night that they were “a few thousands” short of the goal with a day left in the quarter.

I take this as bullish. There would be no reason to take the wind out of employees sails (sales) by communicating they were going to miss the goal. So I'm not buying it.

 

[madodel]

Did some investors take the morning off? TSLA is still red but quite a lift in the past hour. Anyone know why it is rising back up after a steady decline all morning? Perhaps a short choked on his chicken nuggets?

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

?

I take this as bullish. There would be no reason to take the wind out of employees sales by communicating they were going to miss the goal. So I'm not buying it.

Part of me is looking forward to the numbers simply because if the numbers come out and they delivered something like 102,00-104,000....well then we know Fred doesn't have credible sources. I don't think he's had credible sources for a while. Gotta get those clicks somehow though right Fred?

Edit: I could be wrong but I highly doubt Elon would send out that email a week before numbers are released unless he thought 100k minimum was in the bag. Fred coming out with an article the last day of the quarter saying they're off by thousands reeks of Fred knowing when to time his articles and the subject of his articles to get the most clicks. He knows everyone wants clues for numbers today and as everyone can see, I highly doubt the journalism of Fred and his "sources"

 

[anthonyj]

You have a better chance of getting hit by lightning.

What about the $300 calls I bought before Q3 2018. 100x return in 3 days lol. Way OTM calls/puts are the way to go with Tesla. Low cost, high risk, but monster gains

 

[SoGA Fan Club]

I take this as bullish. There would be no reason to take the wind out of employees sales by communicating they were going to miss the goal. So I'm not buying it.

I agree. And also, what is the goal? Is it 100,000? Or is it 105,000? Or maybe only 95,000. Seems to me, the leaked email of possibly reaching 100,000 deliveries, and "being short of the goal by a few thousand" may mean absolutely nothing in relation to each other. In fact, both could be true, and Tesla still delivers 103,000 (just making up a number).

 

[M3Rider]

I take this as bullish. There would be no reason to take the wind out of employees sales by communicating they were going to miss the goal. So I'm not buying it.

I take it as Elon communicating pretty adequate to the expected results. So, people who hype 110k etc. are the ones doing it to themselves.