Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SarahsDad]

I have a very reasonable feature request for Elon but I don't use Twitter. I would like to be able to schedule pre-heating or cooling. Presently, I have to remember 15 min. before leaving. 15 minutes before leaving, I am always busy getting ready to leave. I usually know about when I need the car warmed or cooled some hours ahead and would like to be able to schedule it just like charging. It should be a trivial programing effort since the car already has a scheduling subroutine. It's so obvious and easy I can't believe we don't have it yet. Come on Elon.

‎Stats: For Tesla Model S/X/3 does this now

 

[willow_hiller]

Also don't Twitter, but by the time my kids are driving ( if robo taxis haven't over taken the world), I would like to lock down acceleration, max speed, and also geofence the car when they're driving.

I assume this will be available in 5-6 years when it will be useful to me, but maybe someone else would like it sooner.

Everything except the geofence is already a part of speed limit mode. Tesla now lets you limit the speed of your car with new update - Electrek

 

[mickificki]

Texas has a lot of stupid people. It's not really their fault - the government of Texas intentionally keeps them ignorant to the extent that it can.
‘Academic Freedom’ Bill Provides Cover to Teach Creationism, Climate Denial in Classrooms

Spoken like a true elitist.

 

[Darkfox021]

Everything except the geofence is already a part of speed limit mode. Tesla now lets you limit the speed of your car with new update - Electrek

Thanks, I know the base functionally is mostly there. But, it should be tied to their profile and not something that has to be turned on/off or affects other drivers. These kids will be more computer savvy than me, their restricted profile needs to be locked into their ability to access the car.

 

[JRP3]

Informative video on the Hibar acquisition.

Misleading video that claims Maxwell DB Electrode technology is not compatible with Hibar Electrolyte technology.

 

[JRP3]

Spoken like a true elitist.

What's elitist about exposing willful ignorance?

 

[davepsilon]

As investors, how do we think the markets will react to Tesla reporting lower revenues in 3Q’19 than they did in 3Q’18? The estimates based on the P&D report are coming in around $6.2B. Last year, Q3 revenues were $6.8B. I don’t recall a negative YOY revenue comparison, ever. I’m guessing that’s gonna hurt.

it should be priced since the production numbers imply it strongly.

But it is a piece of evidence of a 'demand problem.' And the market might react to processing that. I often see the demand problem dismissed due to tesla being able to keep low inventory. But the demand problem thesis goes a bit deeper and should include margins. The problem from an investor standpoint is that Tesla needs to aim to achieve generous margins and large revenue. They aren't hitting the 30% margin so they've prioritized growth (as an aside I think thid is probably a good strategy for this stage due to market share capture and efficiencies from volume). But when you prioritize growth and don't actually grow yoy you can see where one might get the impression of a demand problem.

 

[ggr]

Misleading video that claims Maxwell DB Electrode technology is not compatible with Hibar Electrolyte technology.

I think I agree with you. But I'm not sure. (I think I'm indecisive but I'm not sure about that either.) Some people seem to be confusing Maxwell's technology for using a dry process to make the electrodes, with the "holy grail" of dry batteries. My understanding is that Maxwell have a cleaner, smaller, dry process for making the electrodes but the cells still need electrolyte, which Hibar can inject.

 

[ggr]

it should be priced since the production numbers imply it strongly.

But it is a piece of evidence of a 'demand problem.' And the market might react to processing that. I often see the demand problem dismissed due to tesla being able to keep low inventory. But the demand problem thesis goes a bit deeper and should include margins. The problem from an investor standpoint is that Tesla needs to aim to achieve generous margins and large revenue. They aren't hitting the 30% margin so they've prioritized growth (as an aside I think thid is probably a good strategy for this stage due to market share capture and efficiencies from volume). But when you prioritize growth and don't actually grow yoy you can see where one might get the impression of a demand problem.

Woohoo, so many problems with this logic. Firstly, are you talking gross margin or net margin? Tesla has NEVER said 30% gross margin, except maybe as an aspirational goal one day. That they've settled around 20-25% is amazing in the current industry. And this is completely unrelated to the reasons they've prioritized growth. Lastly, they are shipping more cars! That's the growth they've always said they were prioritizing! Demand problem is fabricated.

 

[SoGA Fan Club]

I have a very reasonable feature request for Elon but I don't use Twitter. I would like to be able to schedule pre-heating or cooling. Presently, I have to remember 15 min. before leaving. 15 minutes before leaving, I am always busy getting ready to leave. I usually know about when I need the car warmed or cooled some hours ahead and would like to be able to schedule it just like charging. It should be a trivial programing effort since the car already has a scheduling subroutine. It's so obvious and easy I can't believe we don't have it yet. Come on Elon.

Teslafi.com can do this for you.

 

[Skryll]

... I would like to be able to schedule pre-heating or cooling. Presently, I have to remember 15 min. before leaving. 15 minutes before leaving, I am always busy getting ready to leave. I usually know about when I need the car warmed or cooled some hours ahead...

If you have a regular schedule then model x does exactly that either the predictive preconditioning feature. Not sure about the other models.

 

[Singer3000]

Manufacturers Are Emphasizing Efficiency More Than Ever

So why is it that the latest cars from established manufacturers can’t come close to the efficiency of the Silicon Valley start-up’s aging models? It comes down to inefficiency, both in the cars and in the corporate culture. I should point out that the Model S has become better than 25 percent more efficient over its eight model years, climbing from 89 MPGe to 111. The latest upgrades include revisions to tires and air suspension, changing from an induction-type front motor to a more efficient permanent-magnet design, and revised wheel bearings.

Yes, even wheel bearings count. These have slightly less drag than the car’s already-efficient bearings. The new part is more expensive to manufacture, but Tesla’s engineering teams don’t speak just in terms of dollars, they talk of Battery Bucks—a measure of how much cost can be saved on batteries for every efficiency gain made.

The exchange rate between Battery Bucks and Bearing Dollars must be favorable, because the new bearings made it into production. Rather than shrink the battery, though, Tesla took advantage of the increased range: the new parts are responsible for up to an additional 15 miles compared with traditional bearings. Fifteen miles is more than a quarter of the range of that microscopic Smart Fortwo, and I bet those bearings cost much less than a fourth of the Fortwo’s battery.

Thinking in terms of Battery Bucks allows the company’s departments to work together, rather than in isolated silos as at traditional automakers. There, one imagines braking guys might fantasize about four-piston, monobloc calipers, but their budget would never allow that luxury. At Tesla, the brake guys looked at their Battery Bucks and realized that it cost less overall to use expensive Brembos. Because they can be made to retract the pads from the spinning rotors faster and more reliably than sliding calipers, monoblocs reduce friction—enough to provide up to 20 miles of increased range. The Brembos were easily paid for using Battery Bucks. The additional stopping power, credibility, and better pedal feel are just added bonuses.

" The only reasonable way to maximize range is to concentrate on efficiency. And nobody does efficiency like Tesla. To wit, the Model S Performance (formerly the P100D), the full-size luxury-sport sedan that happens to be the quickest-accelerating production car in history, is 2 MPGe more efficient than the smallest car sold in America, the just-as-electric-but-not-nearly-as-clever Smart EQ Fortwo."​

This paragraph begs the question on how close Tesla is to being able to release the Golf/Mini/Fiesta killer. The tiny Smart has a paltry range of 58 miles for €24k (US$26k equiv.) off a 17.6kWh battery. Good luck mate.

BMW are saying the all electric Mini will get c. 130miles off a 33kWh battery mini (from a shade under $30k equivalent when converted from the GBP 24.4k "on the road" list price, with grant and VAT removed). No thanks, I'll stretch to a SR+ Model 3 for that differential.

Does make you wonder post execution of the Battery Day plan, what range Tesla would be able to squeeze out of a $25k price tag for a city car, when you combine overall efficiency superiority with battery cost/performance.

 

[mickificki]

What's elitist about exposing willful ignorance?

Do you really think an entire state of people are “stupid”? Good grief you guys take a look in the mirror some time. You might not like what you see.

 

[hacer]

Do you really think an entire state of people are “stupid”? Good grief you guys take a look in the mirror some time. You might not like what you see.

Whoa there. I did not say everyone in Texas is stupid. Texas has a lot of people. It has a lot of smart people, but slightly more stupid people (thus it has a lot of stupid people which is what I said), and has a government that is not interested (in fact is actively disinterested) in providing quality public education. As I said for many of these people it is not their fault. They were taught to ignore facts and appeal to authority instead.

 

[mickificki]

Whoa there. I did not say everyone in Texas is stupid. Texas has a lot of people. It has a lot of smart people, but slightly more stupid people (thus it has a lot of stupid people which is what I said), and has a government that is not interested (in fact is actively disinterested) in providing quality public education. As I said for many of these people it is not their fault. They were taught to ignore facts and appeal to authority instead.

fairly certain Maryland is just as stupid.

 

[Causalien]

GF4 should be in Netherland. I think Elon should have Germany and Netherland do a competition to see which country sells more Tesla and use that as a way to gauge where to put the factory. I don't know why Germany beats Netherland as a factory location right now, but it'd be trivial for a German to move to Netherland to work right? But the location of the major dutch port for distribution cannot be moved.

 

[Bet the House]

They buy ahead of your order, and if the price drops they sell it to you.
In essence your limit buy is their exit price.

Your buy limit gives them a free shot at being long,
And if it fails you are filled.

I see what you mean but they are still taking a decent amount of risk doing that. I often change/cancel my limit orders and if I change my order after they bought ahead of me, they are fully exposed to what they bought.

For example, if I put in a limit order at $230 and they buy when the price is $232 hoping they will just unload to me at $230, they are hoping I don't cancel that order.

I assume it averages out to where they still make money on it but they are still taking that risk.

 

[KSilver2000]

GF4 should be in Netherland. I think Elon should have Germany and Netherland do a competition to see which country sells more Tesla and use that as a way to gauge where to put the factory. I don't know why Germany beats Netherland as a factory location right now, but it'd be trivial for a German to move to Netherland to work right? But the location of the major dutch port for distribution cannot be moved.

The German car market is about 10x as big as the Netherlands.

 

[dc_h]

Woohoo, so many problems with this logic. Firstly, are you talking gross margin or net margin? Tesla has NEVER said 30% gross margin, except maybe as an aspirational goal one day. That they've settled around 20-25% is amazing in the current industry. And this is completely unrelated to the reasons they've prioritized growth. Lastly, they are shipping more cars! That's the growth they've always said they were prioritizing! Demand problem is fabricated.

I think Elon has options that depend on 30% margins. I think he’s stopped worrying about the stock price for now. He’s convinced it will resolve itself as they continue to deliver results.

 

[TradingInvest]

it should be priced since the production numbers imply it strongly.

But it is a piece of evidence of a 'demand problem.' And the market might react to processing that. I often see the demand problem dismissed due to tesla being able to keep low inventory. But the demand problem thesis goes a bit deeper and should include margins. The problem from an investor standpoint is that Tesla needs to aim to achieve generous margins and large revenue. They aren't hitting the 30% margin so they've prioritized growth (as an aside I think thid is probably a good strategy for this stage due to market share capture and efficiencies from volume). But when you prioritize growth and don't actually grow yoy you can see where one might get the impression of a demand problem.

I agree with you, gross margin is an important factor when we analyze real demand. On the other hand, we should consider if the public is well informed, what would be the true demand.