Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[T@oo]

Regarding media. I see it not covered much if at all. But for me, one of the most important things said by Elon during the call was (rephrasing): We might do some advertising in the future just to inform the customers.

So will the media step back and think about not intimidating a potential future customer with too much FUD?

 

[EVNow]

Do we have any guesses at FSD pricing?
If it is able to earn $30k p.a. I do not see it costing less than $50k.

Thoughts?

We talked a lot about it earlier.

Using the ARK model you get ~$200k. If the robotaxi is sold at $200k, the owner can still make 13% return on investment.

 

[Ocelot]

We've been surprised by the ER results to the downside and the upside over the past 2 quarters. You have to tip your hat to Tesla on their ability to keep quiet with no leaks. You often hear about the whisper number (the real number people are expecting...not the published consensus numbers). Often this comes from someone, who knows someone, who know someone who knows something. Sometimes it is the spouse of a lower level accountant at the company. He/She overhears the spouse on the phone say something about the quarter to a co-worker. He/She innocently shares the information with their sister-in-law ...who then tells....etc....making its way to Wall Street.

There had to be at least 50 people at Tesla that knew about the blow-out quarter and nothing leaked. That's pretty good.

Totally agree on that. As said..it seems despite our great depth of knowledge and discussion it’s a coin flip for what the stock would do after an earnings report. Even on good reports it could dip. Just been super hard to predict.


I mean look at ARK. That is literally their job....and they left a lot of money on the table selling those shares pre-ER.

 

[KarenRei]

I cannot imagine that Tesla won't simply offer a "personal use only" variant of FSD. So they can keep making cars and keep upping the ASP with FSD sales, without competing with their robotaxi network.

I also have trouble believing that the robotaxi network will scale faster than Tesla can make cars. A) Local approvals and consumer acceptance will automatically make robotaxi scaling slow (dragged out over years), B) Tesla can make whole Gigafactories in under a year (and they'll only get better at it with time), C) capital for Tesla will be basically unlimited if they can demonstrate the sort of robotaxi reliability needed for such a massive scaleup.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Yup. People always fall for the Smart Room Paradox. There generally isn’t a room full of smart people figuring through things together in a smart way. It’s a world run by chancers and blaggers. I’d bet there are quite a few on these boards that know the detail of Tesla’s financials and the operational constraints and drivers better than many of the biggest shorts AND longs.

To your point: A friend of mine was involved in one of the big credit card fraud prevention companies. After many years of operation, it became apparent that the successful fraudsters that evaded initial detection weren’t criminal masterminds. It’s just that there were so many people attempting credit card fraud in so many different ways that just by the law of large numbers, some of them were going to, just by chance, hit upon a successful strategy for getting around the sophisticated anti-fraud systems.

 

[TradingInvest]

The one scenario where Tesla will never have to raise capital again is if they really get Robotaxis working. The current fleet of cars would generate Tesla well over $100bn annualised cash flow. Tesla will balance customer car sales vs in-house fleet build to remain cash flow neutral. But very quickly Tesla would be able to maintain ownership of every car it produces while remaining cash flow positive if it chooses. The real constraint on in-house fleet build is infrastructure - its initially much easier to outsource parking space, cleaning, charging etc to customers than to do it all themselves.

If Tesla knows Robo taxi is ready to work, they should raise tons of money to buy leaps. Later get the shares and cancel them.

 

[EVNow]

Don't Bet Against Elon ‍ on Twitter

Note : That Gandhi quote is misattributed.

MISATTRIBUTED: 'First They Ignore You, Then They Laugh at You....' Quote

But a speech by union leader Nicholas Klein in 1914 provides a closer version of the misattributed quote:​

And, my friends, in this story you have a history of this entire movement. First they ignore you. Then they ridicule you. And then they attack you and want to burn you. And then they build monuments to you. And that, is what is going to happen to the Amalgamated Clothing Workers of America.​

 

[jerry33]

Regarding media. I see it not covered much if at all. But for me, one of the most important things said by Elon during the call was (rephrasing): We might do some advertising in the future just to inform the customers.

So will the media step back and think about not intimidating a potential future customer with too much FUD?

Depends entirely on the ratio of Tesla ads to legacy and oil adds. I suspect that ratio will be pretty small.

 

[Bet the House]

It's worth noting what happened to the stock after Q3 2018 earnings.

The day after PY earnings (Oct 25th 2018), TSLA opened up 10.0% at $317.22 (from $288.50) and closed at $314.86 after falling to the low of the day of $301.01. There was a somewhat similar pattern yesterday, huge gap up, falling $10 and then closing near the open price.

Two days after PY earnings (Oct 26th 2018), TSLA opened down 2.1% and closed at $330.90. It looks like we are shaping up for an open that will be down (similar to PY). Lets see if we close +5% like we did in the PY, which was also a Friday.


Oh... and if you couldn't infer from my user name, I had a great day yesterday

I couldn't believe how cheap the options were on Friday morning for a 5% jump. I loaded up on $305's and ended up making low 6 figures on Friday, let alone what i made on Thursday. How am I celebrating the past two trading days?

My wife and I are both getting Tesla's!

 

[TradingInvest]

This professor had also said that Tesla "would disappear" of "lose 80%"
Nice to see he came around on this thinking.
View attachment 470506

For almost 10 years, this the first time he is not bashing Tesla. I guess he closed his short position, or there is a fund behind him that closed the short position.

Remember someone mentioned that he is paid to give ratings. He didn’t argue about it. As soon as the fund switches to long, he will praise Tesla to the moon.

 

[KSilver2000]

If the solar shingle meets the pricing and install time metrics, it is a wash to the builder and buyer. Even if they are off a little, $10k of additional house price adds only ~$50 to the monthly mortgage payment. (40yr 4% 0 down) $50 a month is offset by only 14kWh of generation per day @ $0.12/kWh.

Your calculation is correct but I have not heard of a $0 down/40-year mortgage ever.

California Becomes 1st State to Require Solar Panels on New Homes
What part of "
The California Building Standards Commission on Wednesday unanimously upheld a May 9 decision to require solar panels on homes up to three stories. The requirement goes into effect Jan. 1, 2020."
Are you disagreeing with?

Yes, I am disagreeing with that.
You’re going to seriously quote/reference a news outlet to make your point? Have we not been through so many “faux news” arguments, such as regarding the presidency and TSLA? I see that you’re from MI (Go Blue btw). I don’t expect someone from outside out of CA to know the details.
Here’s a tip: read the text of CA CEC Title 24, then come back and let me know if you still believe what you read.

I should check, are roof replacements also required to go solar? If so, and if you assume that the average home needs a roof replacement every 25 years... and 90% would be required to have solar... and there's ~7m single-family detached homes in California, and ~12m if you count everything up to and including apartment buildings (not individual apartments)... then ~4800/wk or ~8300/wk, respectively. Interesting, looks like the reroof market would be bigger than the new market...

No, the mandate is only for NEW construction buildings.

Edit: I tried to correct this same mis-information last time the topic was brought up, but I guess it gets lost in the thousands of posts. Based on the number of disagrees on my previous post, I guess people like to believe what they want to believe because it pertains to something they have a bias for.

 

[willow_hiller]

View attachment 470503

Just in the same vein of documenting some potentially sketchy things before they disappear, there is this odd post made between the lead plaintiff of that battery lawsuit and a serious defender of his. It seems like it was meant to be a private message, but was accidentally made as a public profile post.... AmpedRealtor

 

[Remus]

The one scenario where Tesla will never have to raise capital again is if they really get Robotaxis working. The current fleet of cars would generate Tesla well over $100bn annualised cash flow. Tesla will balance customer car sales vs in-house fleet build to remain cash flow neutral. But very quickly Tesla would be able to maintain ownership of every car it produces while remaining cash flow positive if it chooses. The real constraint on in-house fleet build is infrastructure - its initially much easier to outsource parking space, cleaning, charging etc to customers than to do it all themselves.

I don't understand, if you get robot taxi working then each car is worth 200k minimum, why would you want to even sell a single car to consumers at 40k?

 

[Cosmacelf]

It's a huge plant. It is unlikely that they are prepping the entire plant in one phase. I see no reason to doubt Rivian's plans at this point. They were funded and focused long enough ago that their schedule is reasonable IMO. Undoubtedly their investor pitch is along the lines of "like Tesla but run by adults". Over promising is likely not consistent with their desired public persona.

They also have the huge advantage of being able to evaluate their choices against what Tesla has already done.

Conversely, I see no evidence that they know what they are doing on the manufacturing front.

Their design is great. They hit the specs and design out of the park.

Their promises and actions are questionable. 180 kWh battery for a reasonable price? Tons of features and add ons? Base unit for $60K at a 20,000 vehicle/year output? Spending so much time and effort on PR and marketing when it is OBVIOUS there is demand for 20,000 of those vehicles?

Company culture starts at the top. Scaringe comes across as cool and competent, he’s a great talker. But fast paced? Hard driving manager? No and no. He also has zero experience running a company. People forget that that before Tesla, Elon had been CEO of three companies, all successful.

Based on what we know of Scaringe and the lack of visible progress at their plant, I would say the 2020 date for a production vehicle is in jeopardy. Time will tell.

 

[KarenRei]

Note : That Gandhi quote is misattributed.

MISATTRIBUTED: 'First They Ignore You, Then They Laugh at You....' Quote

But a speech by union leader Nicholas Klein in 1914 provides a closer version of the misattributed quote:​

And, my friends, in this story you have a history of this entire movement. First they ignore you. Then they ridicule you. And then they attack you and want to burn you. And then they build monuments to you. And that, is what is going to happen to the Amalgamated Clothing Workers of America.​

Yeah, I'm aware of that - I didn't make the initial graphic, unfortunately. But as Abraham Lincoln famously said:

 

[EVNow]

No, the mandate is only for NEW construction buildings.

So, what is the mandate ?

Just single family or multi-family as well ? Just 3 floor ones or all ?

 

[snellenr]

So, given this product's only reason to exist is to circumvent a Federal vehicle requirement (FMVSS 141), how long till they get a cease and desist letter? (See also Autopilot Buddy).

It looks like they are selling bog-standard automotive connectors with plugs to cover the ends where the wires would enter. Clever - but I doubt they have very much skin in the game, and can always sell them separately as “repair parts” to be used if the speaker plugs are “damaged” (nudge, nudge, wink, wink, say no more).

 

[Cosmacelf]

Yes, I am disagreeing with that.
You’re going to seriously quote/reference a news outlet to make your point? Have we not been through so many “faux news” arguments, such as regarding the presidency and TSLA? I see that you’re from MI (Go Blue btw). I don’t expect someone from outside out of CA to know the details.
Here’s a tip: read the text of CA CEC Title 24, then come back and let me know if you still believe what you read.

FWIW, here’s a document from CA summarizing the new requirements: https://ww2.energy.ca.gov/title24/2...2018_Title_24_2019_Building_Standards_FAQ.pdf

“The standards require solar photovoltaic systems for new homes.”

 

[TradingInvest]

I cannot imagine that Tesla won't simply offer a "personal use only" variant of FSD. So they can keep making cars and keep upping the ASP with FSD sales, without competing with their robotaxi network.

I also have trouble believing that the robotaxi network will scale faster than Tesla can make cars. A) Local approvals and consumer acceptance will automatically make robotaxi scaling slow (dragged out over years), B) Tesla can make whole Gigafactories in under a year (and they'll only get better at it with time), C) capital for Tesla will be basically unlimited if they can demonstrate the sort of robotaxi reliability needed for such a massive scaleup.

If FSD works, I think Tesla wouldn't offer the cheap version for personal use only. They need all the profit to build another 20 factories ASAP.

 

[KSilver2000]

So, what is the mandate ?

Just single family or multi-family as well ? Just 3 floor ones or all ?

Buildings up to 3 stories tall. Single, multi, and even condos.

This goes back to my point on my previous post: In addition to condos, many new communities being constructed in urban areas are connected, 3-story townhomes where the roofs are not large enough (or even owned individually by a single homeowner) for roof solar to meet the energy offset requirements of the mandate. How do people who disagreed with me think the solar mandate can be met? (Hint: answer is in the text of Title 24 final approval)