Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[defc0n]

Yup. People always fall for the Smart Room Paradox. There generally isn’t a room full of smart people figuring through things together in a smart way. It’s a world run by chancers and blaggers. I’d bet there are quite a few on these boards that know the detail of Tesla’s financials and the operational constraints and drivers better than many of the biggest shorts AND longs.

Top. Men.

 

[The Accountant]

Another ER..and another time I should of placed bets against this boards overall sentiment.

When we were at ATH... no one was talking 180. It’s a fickle beast. Buyer beware.

We've been surprised by the ER results to the downside and the upside over the past 2 quarters. You have to tip your hat to Tesla on their ability to keep quiet with no leaks. You often hear about the whisper number (the real number people are expecting...not the published consensus numbers). Often this comes from someone, who knows someone, who know someone who knows something. Sometimes it is the spouse of a lower level accountant at the company. He/She overhears the spouse on the phone say something about the quarter to a co-worker. He/She innocently shares the information with their sister-in-law ...who then tells....etc....making its way to Wall Street.

There had to be at least 50 people at Tesla that knew about the blow-out quarter and nothing leaked. That's pretty good.

 

[Navin]

 

[The Accountant]

Potemkin Village!!

Great observation. If Rivian didn't have the investor list they have, this would be a giant red flag for a fraudulent company.

Historically Rivian have been very slow and deliberate in their actions - they were in stealth mode for the best part of a decade.

For Tesla, their engineering and production capabilities run ahead of their funding
For Rivian, their funding runs ahead of their engineering and production capabilities.

 

[mongo]

The need for new homes in California is ~3500/wk (although at present they're underbuilding, only about ~1500/wk). I should check, are roof replacements also required to go solar? If so, and if you assume that the average home needs a roof replacement every 25 years... and 90% would be required to have solar... and there's ~7m single-family detached homes in California, and ~12m if you count everything up to and including apartment buildings (not individual apartments)... then ~4800/wk or ~8300/wk, respectively. Interesting, looks like the reroof market would be bigger than the new market...

Indeed, at a 20 year life, US reroof market is 75k per week. Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019 Investors' Roundtable

Or, if new house growth rate is < 100/roof life expectancy, reroofs are more numerous. Given global demand, it's all moot anyway... for a while.

Spoiler: OT Rivian

According to the last interview, they don't expect to even complete demolition until the end of the year. But it hardly even looks like they're doing demolition. Apparently their "production ready factory" needs to be almost completely demolished inside because it was geared for building vehicles that were too small.

Their equipment supplier could be assembling the line offsite at their facility. Like Ghromann with the GF1 stuff. Design, build, validate, then install. Since Rivian is headquartered in Plymouth Michigan, it would make sense to build and test local to that base of automotive suppliers, then ship the redult to the final factory which would have all the drops and locations setup to match
.

 

[The Accountant]

Ha ha ha! As well as the 320-325 exit he talked about, everything else he said about Tesla was just wrong - he's shorting a company and he does't understand what they're doing. All these shorts are saying that they can't see how Tesla can make a profit from flat revenue from a year ago, are they so blind to the concept of a reduction in cogs and efficiency gains?

And investors look to these people for advice?? Crazy!

You state: "he's shorting a company and he does't understand what they're doing" . The sad reality is that many started not understanding the company but now do.....but they won't change their narrative until they get out of the stock. And it amazes me on this particular show how they all support each other. Tim says some nonsense and the others pile on with additional nonsense...they nod in agreement.

 

[RubberToe]

With 940,000 homes losing power yesterday in NorCal, what % do you think might decide that a couple powerwalls and solar might be a good idea going forward?

RT

 

[ReflexFunds]

Does anyone have an idea of the general consensus when Pickup will enter production?

Model 3 reveal March 2016, production started July 2017.

Model Y reveal March 2019, production likely starting around March 2020.

Pickup reveal November 2019, production starting??

I can see Tesla targeting early 2021 to begin production but I think this is likely significantly ahead of general opinion. I don’t see any reason for Tesla not to build Pickup as soon as possible. Of course it will also require investment in the necessary battery and raw material capacity.

 

[The Accountant]

Scott Galloway, NYU Professor tweeted a few weeks back:
"Dear Twitter trolls: ...... Tesla doesn’t have the scale to compete in a well-run, low-margin business — auto."

Really? Look at these margins - looks to me they are competing just fine.
TSLA Q3 margins of 19% and TTM of 17% stack up well with competitors ....and this is with Tesla having a fraction of the revenue base. When TSLA approaches $100B in revenue, the margins will only improve and Operating Costs as a % of sales will drop to single digits.

View attachment 469480

This professor had also said that Tesla "would disappear" of "lose 80%"
Nice to see he came around on this thinking.

 

[Unpilot]

Another Lidar based company.

Hyundai Kona Electric becomes self-driving BotRide for free ride-hailing service - Roadshow

 

[Maitri982]

Wow! I've often thought Honda had pretty sophisticated, nice-looking designs but apparently, they have taken it to another level! Best looking Honda I've ever seen! Did they hire a new designer? /s

Good point. I think this is some sort of smoke screen for something/somebody. Hard to see who exactly.

Wework? Theranos? Rivian?

Legacy car makers are having terrible time making electric cars, yet this guy is going to do it?

I know same thing could have been said about Elon, but he is not ordinary.

 

[Stretch2727]

There will be two categories of FSD use:

1. Robotaxi
2. Individual using FSD on their personal Tesla

Each Tesla could be dedicated to one of these categories or could be used for both, and that is where the pricing conundrum comes into play. If Tesla charge $50k for FSD, very few Tesla owners would purchase FSD if they are predominantly using it for their personal use. I assume that whilst it may be possible to earn $30k p.a. initially it will become increasingly hard as Tesla build up their own robotaxi fleet from lease returns (as mentioned by other posters) and hence the utilisation of individually owned Teslas to supplement the Tesla owned fleet reduces.

Pricing FSD out of reach of owners that use it purely for their personal Tesla would remove a big competitive advantage vs ICE vehicles and hence undermine the very transition Tesla is trying to accelerate.

As a result my expectation (hope) is that whilst the initial cost of FSD may well rise it will remain well below $50k.

One reason I think it is better to leave the cost of FSD relatively low and offer as a subscription service for the Robo Taxi. Let someone else own the cars and maintain them. Tesla should just take a good percentage of each fare.

This way there is little capital required and almost 100% margin on the fees. I thought this was the direction they were headed but lately Elon seems to want to capture all the value upfront. Not sure why.

 

[sparcs]

I can see Tesla targeting early 2021 to begin production but I think this is likely significantly ahead of general opinion. I don’t see any reason for Tesla not to build Pickup as soon as possible. Of course it will also require investment in the necessary battery and raw material capacity.

and requires expansion of GF1. We're not even sure where they are building Semi or even Roadster.

so maybe a massive expansion at GF1?

 

[ReflexFunds]

One reason I think it is better to leave the cost of FSD relatively low and offer as a subscription service for the Robo Taxi. Let someone else own the cars and maintain them. Tesla should just take a good percentage of each fare.

This way there is little capital required and almost 100% margin on the fees. I thought this was the direction they were headed but lately Elon seems to want to capture all the value upfront. Not sure why.

He has a legal duty as a CEO to capture value for shareholders and not throw away half his profits with too low pricing or by giving away valuable assets to customers far below their value.

 

[Artful Dodger]

circumvent a Federal vehicle requirement

Except the U.S. Federal Requirement doesn't go into effect until Sep 2020. Tesla has voluntarily equipped their cars with the device in advance. So not sure if the NHTSB can intervene if a 3rd Party makes it easiler for an Owner to disable the device.

U.S. finalizes long-delayed 'quiet cars' rule, extending deadline

 

[Prunesquallor]

Except the U.S. Federal Requirement doesn't go into effect until Sep 2020. Tesla has voluntarily equipped their cars with the device in advance. So not sure if the NHTSB can intervene if a 3rd Party makes it easiler for an Owner to disable the device.

U.S. finalizes long-delayed 'quiet cars' rule, extending deadline

I would think there would be an advantage to integrating the external speaker with Sentry Mode. That may be one reason Tesla is moving out early with it. I haven’t heard anything about that though.

 

[GOVA]

Does anyone know if Tesla builds their motors themselves or do they outsource that (or possibly buy the parts and assemble themselves)?

Asking for a friend.

Tesla motors are made by Fish Karma with Robert Lultz as CEO

 

[mongo]

Except the U.S. Federal Requirement doesn't go into effect until Sep 2020. Tesla has voluntarily equipped their cars with the device in advance. So not sure if the NHTSB can intervene if a 3rd Party makes it easiler for an Owner to disable the device.

U.S. finalizes long-delayed 'quiet cars' rule, extending deadline

So... get them before they're banned, letter to arrive Sept 1, 2020?

I would think there would be an advantage to integrating the external speaker into Sentry Mode. That may be one reason Tesla is moving out early with it. I haven’t heard anything about that though.

Love it, built in PA system too.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I would think there would be an advantage to integrating the external speaker with Sentry Mode. That may be one reason Tesla is moving out early with it. I haven’t heard anything about that though.

Oh haha, good idea! Pump out some Michael Winslow and record the '100m dash' cam

Cheers!

 

[Navin]

Everytime someone buys a Tesla car or Tesla energy product - they join the fight (directly and indirectly) against the nonsense by short sellers and media. No one likes to think they are stupid or likes being told what to do. Once Tesla joins the s&p - institutional investors who have to buy Tesla for index balancing reasons - will also indirectly join the fight since they don’t want their financial performance to deteriorate. TSLAq is sorta like bagdadhi running into a dead end in a cave. Enjoy!!