Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Remus]

I really hate this over-used expression. The big car companies aren't "sleeping giants". IMO, they are fat, lazy, over-confident morons, who are too top heavy with management that can't won't change unless forced to, and saddled with the burdens of unions who don't want EV's, and huge investments in factories and equipment to only build ICE vehicles.

I would disagree with that. Successful companies are very good at what they do and once becoming "incumbent" they're rarely overturned by new comers.

Yet even very efficient corporations fail to change direction in the face of a disruptive force.

 

[Darkfox021]

I would disagree with that. Successful companies are very good at what they do and once becoming "incumbent" they're rarely overturned by new comers.

Yet even very efficient corporations fail to change direction in the face of a disruptive force.

They are incumbent in ICE, not EVs. They will go the way of Kodak, IMO.

 

[Beltsbear]

At this point a metal roof may very well be more expensive for them to make than the glass roof.

Dan

Sorry but no. The glass panel Tesla uses is expensive. Metal is probably 1/10 the price. Simpler to build too. But Tesla would need to make a large number of them for it to be worth it. It probably won’t make sense in Fremont but only in a new factory where it was part of the plan.

 

[Carl Raymond]

Greta just turned down a 500,000 Swedish Croner environmental award from the Nordic Council. Wants action, not awards.

Damned impressive.

Her statement here (scroll to top)
Greta Thunberg on Instagram: “I have received the Nordic Council’s environmental award 2019. I have decided to decline this prize. Here’s why: “I am currently traveling…”

Relevant because if she gets action, and she’s going the right way about it, the transition becomes a carrot AND stick affair.

 

[FreqFlyer]

FCA stock was up 7,5% today on news of a possible merger with PSA:

Fiat Chrysler reportedly in talks to merge with Peugeot owner - CNN

The dinosaurs are desperately finding ways to survive.

I wonder if it will have any effect on the deal between Tesla and FCA. Probably not, as the PSA brands Peugeot and Citroen do not have meaningful EV programs.

I wouldn't say that

https://www.carscoops.com/2019/10/peugeot-e-208-ev-takes-25-percent-of-new-models-pre-orders/

Peugeot to introduce Expert EV | CarAdvice

This merger talk is back on after talks fell through earlier this year.

 

[brian45011]

Anyone knows what he is talking about ?

In 2Q19, Tesla delivered 89,214 non-lease new vehicles and increased the warranty reserve by $153.2 million or $1,717/delivered vehicle.
In 3Q19, Tesla delivered 88,100 non-lease new vehicles and increased the warranty reserve by $1,38.0 million or $1,566/delivered vehicle.
Also the expensed warranty costs for leased vehicles decreased from $5.7 million in Q2 to $4 million in Q3.

These reductions are in addition to the $37 million reduction in prior period reserves.

Sustainable?

 

[aubreymcfato]

Musk is by far the best contributor of teamtrees.org.

 

[ReflexFunds]

In 2Q19, Tesla delivered 89,214 non-lease new vehicles and increased the warranty reserve by $153.2 million or $1,717/delivered vehicle.
In 3Q19, Tesla delivered 88,100 non-lease new vehicles and increased the warranty reserve by $1,38.0 million or $1,566/delivered vehicle.
Also the expensed warranty costs for leased vehicles decreased from $5.7 million in Q2 to $4 million in Q3.

These reductions are in addition to the $37 million reduction in prior period reserves.

Sustainable?

Yes.

Increased production quality is one of every avenue Tesla has been pursuing to reduce COGs. As backed up by the large Bloomberg owner survey released today which showed a huge increase in production quality over the past 6 months.

 

[goinfraftw]

Anyone else find it weird that CA is the only state going through major blackouts (473k PG&E customers or ~9% of their customer base) during wildfire season (October) w/ now two largely uncontrolled wilfires?

Sharing these links again:

California Power Outages Map
PowerOutage.US (only CA is in the red...and by far)

 

[wipster]

Anybody read the first portion of Bloomberg's Model 3 owner survey? Just came out this afternoon. Very deceiving IMHO. Looks to me like the 3 compared very well to the industry, but you would never know it to read this. Recommend everyone check it out.

 

[Electroman]

I have never liked Danahull. But some Tesla bulls like Ross G and Steve Jobs ghost (Omar) give her lots of credence.
To me Dana Hull is worse than Russ from latimes, as Dana hides under a falls pretense of balanced views.

Dana Hull is one of the worst. She does the trolling and all the exaggerated negative slant on Tesla news in a polished soft manner that naive readers would be sucked in her narrative and think she is unbiased. Primary focus is on scandals only (pedo sorry, parking lot chasers, stalkers story etc..)

I don’t understand how these reporters tell their kids and grandkids what they do for living.

 

[Darkfox021]

Anyone else find it weird that CA is the only state going through major blackouts (473k PG&E customers or ~9% of their customer base) during wildfire season (October) w/ now two largely uncontrolled wilfires?

Sharing these links again:

California Power Outages Map
PowerOutage.US (only CA is in the red...and by far)

Care to explain what do you find weird about this?

 

[PhaseWhite]

The stock flew too high too fast. Backing off for a bit, aided by a downgrade and some lazy FUD. We'll see where it goes from here. Overall I expect to be a couple tens higher a couple weeks from now, but we'll see what happens between now and then.

I hate these "backed off" levels. Not low enough to qualify as a dip to justify re-increasing leverage. Not high enough to justify deleveraging. Just wait time, while volume and IV slowly ticks down.

My take is we had a nice little short squeeze with a moderate amount of covering (likely a lot of retail shorts without special broker arrangements and or large pockets) and some new long buying and now we've reached a level where the long side of the trade isn't as appealing (at least for short term traders) and the shorts that weren't already hit my margin calls are holding. I believe Ihor Dusaniwsky (S3 partners) has commented before on how he's been surprised how nothing seems to phase a large group of TSLA shorts...

 

[goinfraftw]

Care to explain what do you find weird about this?

Why have blackouts specifically in areas that are susceptible to wildfires and dry heat (with a lot of brush and trees) such as Northern California? Further, October is also prime season for harvesting of grapes that Napa Valley would center their economy on (from what I read).

Happy to be wrong here, just think it's odd for CA to be undergoing significant blackouts at the same time as a very-much-known season for natural disasters such as wildfires.

 

[Darkfox021]

Why have blackouts specifically in areas that are susceptible to wildfires and dry heat (with a lot of brush and trees) such as Northern California? Further, October is also prime season for harvesting of grapes that Napa Valley would center their economy on (from what I read).

Happy to be wrong here, just think it's odd for CA to be undergoing huge blackouts at the same time as a very-much-known season for natural disasters such as wildfires.

Most (all?) of the blackouts are controlled outages by PG&E to reduce the risk of fires.

 

[hacer]

The survey Randall did is pretty good. The results are what I have expected.

If people from Consumer Reports look at the survey results, they would say "driving fun got 100 points, paint got zero, so average them out, Tesla gets 50 out of 100."

If this is not ridiculous, I don't know what is. In reality, I can enjoy driving fun for the next 200k miles. That little paint blemish? who cares. I wouldn't notice it once I get some road dust on the car. By the way, my car didn't have any paint issues.

No way. CR has behind-the-scenes weighting factors so driving-fun=100 paint=0 would be: Tesla gets 14 out of 100.

 

[EVNow]

In 2Q19, Tesla delivered 89,214 non-lease new vehicles and increased the warranty reserve by $153.2 million or $1,717/delivered vehicle.
In 3Q19, Tesla delivered 88,100 non-lease new vehicles and increased the warranty reserve by $1,38.0 million or $1,566/delivered vehicle.
Also the expensed warranty costs for leased vehicles decreased from $5.7 million in Q2 to $4 million in Q3.

These reductions are in addition to the $37 million reduction in prior period reserves.

Sustainable?

I'd think of sustainable in 2 ways.
1. Can Tesla repeat it i.e. can the warranty reserve be 1,566/vehicle in Q4. Definitely (unless suddenly they face a huge recall of some sort). The prior year $37M reduction may not be repeatable.
2. If Tesla reserves only 1,566/vehicle - will that be enough to provide warranty service. Only Tesla knows this for sure - but we know the quality is getting better and their warranty service is not ballooning.

BTW, as the mix of 3/X/S changes - we should expect lower warranty reserves because 3 should cost less to repair compared to S/X.

 

[anthonyj]

Charley Grant on Twitter

Get em Charley! Show Elon who’s boss

 

[Chocochip]

Love the comment below (as did 43k others, it seems...)

View attachment 471241

He seems to have enjoyed it as well …

 

[VValleyEV]

Am a little surprised that my referral can’t be used to order a Y. I spent months answering questions for a neighbor who has a Prius and wants a BEV. He started out as “anything but Tesla”. I gave him test drives in both my S and my wife’s 3, and he is ordering a Y tonight.

But I get it, and have no complaints. And I like it that I will be able to see where his order winds up in the queue, and to watch the delivery process and see how well he likes the car. And it will be terrific to have one nearby that I can see and touch, and probably drive.