Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SteveG3]

A paragraph from a CNN article:

"That's pushed the stock back into positive territory for the year. (It still lags the performance of GM, Ford (F), Fiat Chrysler (FCAU) and many other big auto makers, however.)"

How do they write this nonsensence?

Ford is down 8.2 percent over last year.
GM and Tesla are both up about 1.9 percent.

they are extremely confident none of their infomercial platform peers will call them out for it... why would they when the fossil fuel economy is also a big customer of those peers.

 

[Mars ☰mperor]

T☰SLA Mania on Twitter

Breaking

@tesla is now is now preparing for DELIVERY of Giga Shanghai Model 3

——

Screenshot from my Weibo follower via DM

 

[wipster]

Maybe this changes once more 3 and Y will be seen on the road... But its also a very "Berlin" perspective. Traffic is bad here and cars in general are seen as a problem.
But I dont want to go to much off topic from investor issues. Just trying to give a little insight in the reactions to the announcement...

Thanks for the insight my friend! That's what I love about this site, you can get the perspective from the folks who actually have first hand experience in the subject being discussed. Please continue with letting us know how things really are being perceived over on that side of the globe, soon to be a major part of the Tesla world. We can definitely learn a lot from the Germans on the solar side as well. Be interested in the market for Powerwalls over there, which I would think could be huge.

 

[wipster]

Shorts will say it is as good as Model Y but from an experienced manufacturer. In reality no supercharger network, no OTA, no FSD, slightly worse in every metric, higher TCO and not from a company that has been trying to save the planet.

And I can't wait for the first recall...

 

[FreqFlyer]

Much more info here:

Ford Mustang Mach E specs leaked, $36-53k*, 230-300mi, 3-6sec 0-60 - Electrek

A worthy competitor to Tesla and no doubt we will be seeing Ford market this in TV commercials and even Nascar races(Ford races the Mustang name plate). Good for the consumer.

Lots of questions, like what will the Dealer training be like? Whats the production goal?

 

[Singuy]

Notice also that all the numbers say “est” or “target”. I read that as those values are the goal but may not actually come to fruition.

Yup, seen this song and dance before. Releases some press slides of 300+ miles and then ends up being 180 miles. Happened to pretty much every car that has ever came out.

I believe without Tesla's drive train, I am pretty convinced manufactures are dealing with a max range wall of 250 EPA miles. Because how can every manufacture aimed for 300+ and ended up coming up 50-100 miles short time and time again, including Porsche in which everything was thrown at it.

 

[EVNow]

I dunno, for the price and with the specs listed and fed rebate, I think it's not bad. My question is how many are they planning on producing?

Model Y of course beats it, haha.

Ford Focus EV was supposed to compete with Leaf. Month after month they sold 10% or less of Leaf sales, which itself wasn’t selling all that well.

Compliance car.

 

[S3XY]

What's going on at the bottom of the screen? Is that a virtual control knob?

 

[FrederickBound]

The current batch of competition is competitive with a 2012 Tesla on features and capabilities.

A good source of reading for you will be "The Innovator's dilemma".

They have lots of profits now, but when the EV transition hits the steep part of the S-curve that source of profits is going to turn into a huge source of losses. They are going to have to fund an expensive transition as their ICE sales and profits simultaneously plummet. Firms like Tesla and Rivian won't have the ICE albatross around their neck.

That's the point. The big car makers have the funds to make the transition. I believe VW has said they are going to spend 30 billion Euros in four or five years to come out with a bunch of new EVs. I'm not sure Tesla has spent that much the whole time they've been in business.

Tesla has done a great job of producing Teslas. They appeal to a portion of the US and a portion of the rest of the world, but not the main market. Look at where their concentration is in the US, California, a nice place to be popular. But don't tell me they are going to out compete GM, Ford, Hyundai, Honda and Toyota in middle America when their EV product lines are filled out in 2023.

 

[FrederickBound]

Dude you have to be super fat or old as hell to have any issues getting in/out of a Model S or X

I'm not a midget. I would guess you are either driving an X or are under 5'10". Or maybe you know about the issues of getting in cars because you are "super fat"?

 

[FrederickBound]

It's pretty easy. Exhaust system below the car. Mufflers, tailpipes and catalytic converters are big air blocks.

Other cars don't have the low drag coefficients because they aren't willing to sacrifice the door opening so much. Even if the windshield on a Tesla didn't cover the roof, it would still have some of the biggest windshields in the business because of the extreme rake.

 

[FrederickBound]

Those people will die off.

Show me anyone under 30 that can't operate a smartphone or iPad in their sleep. Including toddlers.

When they get full self driving working then we will have cars driven by toddlers in their sleep. Until then it's better if we actually focus on the road and not on the touch screen in the bouncing car.

 

[PeterJA]

We've heard of GF4 and Elon
It's best just to leave them alone
As Investors we hold
through FUD with our gold
Wherever our Teslas are shown

There once was a young man named Elon
More recently monikered Treelon
He built lots of cars
And planned trips to Mars
And now has another big deal on

 

[Sancho]

The pricing/specs are somewhat competitive with Teslas, but is that going to cut it?

Assuming the same price/spec, what will a consumer want, a Ford or a Tesla?

I think Ford needs to significantly undercut the price of the comparable Tesla model to be truly competitive.

 

[LN1_Casey]

Looks like a poor copy of the S/X dash

Exterior very Model Y ish

Is it just me, or does this car look like the Jr. High Schooler's attempt to copy their classmate's work, but make it not look exactly the same? Interior, exterior; only large differences is the headlight shape and tail light shapes.

Hood/nose cone from Model S, overall shape from Model Y, interior model X/S. I think the hatch looks a bit like a Jeep Cherokee.

And how do you open the doors? I don't see any handlebar mechanism. Is it that weird little black nob? How do you then open the rears? Don't tell me the rears have to open the front to be able to open themselves. No visible seam to the hood, so likely no frunk.

Now, mind, I generally like the appearance though I think they should have done a straight sedan/coupe from the Mustang line than a crossover half-breed child. Numbers don't seem too bad, either.

 

[LN1_Casey]

The pricing/specs are somewhat competitive with Teslas, but is that going to cut it?

Assuming the same price/spec, what will a consumer want, a Ford or a Tesla?

I think Ford needs to significantly undercut the price of the comparable Tesla model to be truly competitive.

Nah, I think they're taking a loss on the car as it is.

Honestly, you'll have those die-hards who won't ever buy a Tesla jumping to be able to brag about their Ford, Mustang decedent car while blithely ignoring the better stats on the Tesla. They'd rather choke on the worse range/problems than admit that Tesla is a viable car manufacturer, even if they agree/want an electric car for all of their benefits.

 

[BLSmith2112]

Honestly, you'll have those die-hards who won't ever buy a Tesla jumping to be able to brag about their Ford, Mustang decedent car while blithely ignoring the better stats on the Tesla. They'd rather choke on the worse range/problems than admit that Tesla is a viable car manufacturer, even if they agree/want an electric car for all of their benefits.

Which is fine, because their friends might not be as do-or-die as they are, but become interested in the fact that it's electric, do a google, and choose a Tesla vehicle that is superior in every way, then they talk to their friends like 99% of all Tesla owners do and recommend they buy a Tesla too... it's a win ether way.

 

[Singuy]

Nah, I think they're taking a loss on the car as it is.

Honestly, you'll have those die-hards who won't ever buy a Tesla jumping to be able to brag about their Ford, Mustang decedent car while blithely ignoring the better stats on the Tesla. They'd rather choke on the worse range/problems than admit that Tesla is a viable car manufacturer, even if they agree/want an electric car for all of their benefits.

I don't think there is a single person who would buy an EV from any ICE manufacturer and never considered a Tesla unless affordability is the barrier. You cant hate Tesla but at the same time loves the concept of EVs so much from an Ice company that you are willing to put up with their under sell, lack of service, and long wait time. That makes zero sense unless Elon personally stole your girlfriend or raped one of your family members.

 

[Sancho]

So you can buy a Mustang GT for about 35k (25k for the Mustang Ecoboost).

How many people are going to pay $60k for a Mustang?

 

[Fact Checking]

The main worry if you're Ford is that you cant get the base model ramped up until Q2 or Q3 2021. They say available starting Q1 2021, but I find that hard to believe that they'll be at mass volume production by then. If they don't get to mass production by Q2 2021, their tax credit will be expired and they'll have to compete without it. Issue is that by Q2 2021, Mosel Y will have already been in mass production for 3 quarters or more and Tesla will have huge pricing power against all aut makers including Ford. They could undercut Fords pricing by a large margin or give much much better specs for the same price.

Ford only has about 83k units left until the federal tax credit runs out:

Federal EV Tax Credit Phase Out Tracker By Automaker – EVAdoption
​

If they maintain the current monthly run rate until end of Q1 2021, that's another ~10k units, i.e. they only have 73k units left until the tax credit halves. That won't create much of a dent in Tesla's sales by then.