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Let’s get over with this ugly Ford. It won’t hurt TESLA.

1. it looks like a shrinked car from the kids movie ‘toys’
2. Inside: It’s not even a bad copy of a tesla 2012
3. It’s more like Motorola back in the days trying to build an iphone

Guess what this will do? Driving demand for TESLA even higher. Because they build the EVs you want and even if some buys others, it pushes the acceptance of EVs in general and therefore bringing more people to TESLA. But yes, I love every EV because we get were we want. But not in this thread.

Let’s get going on with more important stuff, like the first deliveries in China for example.

That is some real news!
 
Ford only has about 83k units left until the federal tax credit runs out:

If they maintain the current monthly run rate until end of Q1 2021, that's another ~10k units, i.e. they only have 73k units left until the tax credit halves. That won't create much of a dent in Tesla's sales by then.

And the end of Q1 2021 may see another administration and thus another tax credit policy (not the absurd one favoring European and Korean companies over American companies).
 
I wonder if OTA updates will be available.

Like Jaguar, Ford will claim yes.

In reality you will only be able to download trivial software.

For extensive firmware fixes, it will require visits to the dealer.

For Ford loyalist that think Tesla is "fledgling" and Ford is an Iron Fortress guaranteed to see the 22nd Century Mach-E will be a very compelling option.

I also think CCS Network will be good enough by the start of Q4 next year.
 
I received an invite. Why, I have no idea. I was on the 3 pre-reveal waitlist, I bought a P3D and I subsequently purchased FSD when put on sale for $2k. Somehow I doubt that or the Instagram photos of my car or my 45 “devout” Instagram followers (whichIncludes all the hot 22-year old women who inexplicably want to date this oldish retired guy. ;-) ) have come to the attention of Tesla‘s PR department.

Unfortunately I’m “stuck” in Phuket, Thailand and won’t make it back for the festivities. It’s a shame I cant transfer the invite!

Cybertruck unveil invites are going out... this is what it looks like (no idea if anyone can take any hints from this but I can't):

Marques Brownlee on Twitter

View attachment 476967
 
Battery supplier?

Suppliers factory capacity?

Fire Away!

SK Innovation is building a 10 GWh battery cell plant in Georgia.

And LG Chem is planning on having 110 GWh global capacity by Q4 2020.

Samsung will deliver 5 GWh this year to automakers. And are opening a new plant in Hungary. They didn't put a GWh on that factory but say they expect to delivery 50k battery packs per year.

Not all new BEVs will be successful. The sales successes shouldn't be too cell starved.

My guess is no car for the American market will plan on importing cells from China until the trade war is resolved.
 
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Shorts will say it is as good as Model Y but from an experienced manufacturer. In reality no supercharger network, no OTA, no FSD, slightly worse in every metric, higher TCO and not from a company that has been trying to save the planet.

Not experienced with BEV's... So sure, I would expect a good build quality, alignments etc, but the utility will likely suck compared to a Tesla and the hardware/software itegration will be some kind of Windows 95 throwback...
 
I received an invite. Why, I have no idea. I was on the 3 pre-reveal waitlist, I bought a P3D and I subsequently purchased FSD when put on sale for $2k. Somehow I doubt that or the Instagram photos of my car or my 45 “devout” Instagram followers (whichIncludes all the hot 22-year old women who inexplicably want to date this oldish retired guy. ;-) ) have come to the attention of Tesla‘s PR department.

Unfortunately I’m “stuck” in Phuket, Thailand and won’t make it back for the festivities. It’s a shame I cant transfer the invite!

Phuket, Phuket, Phuket!!!
 
I don't recall hearing about this before, is it correct?

A consequence of the California Air Resources Board decision to cap the clean vehicle rebate programme at $60,000 from Dec 3, reported by the
@latimes
, will heavily impact local boy
@tesla
. 40% of Model S/X global H1 2019 deliveries stayed in #California.

Yes,

Additional income cap of $200k for individuals and $350k for two income households. The standard BEV rebate has been reduced from $2500 to $2k.

There is a bonus rebate for low-moderate income families.

A family of four making 300% of Federal Poverty Income level ($77,250) or less qualify for a larger rebate of $4500.

Each household now only qualifies for 1 lifetime rebate. Unlimited before.

No multiple rebates for Teslanaires. Long term this is the only way to defend the CA rebate program from Oil Industry propaganda.
 
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I don't recall hearing about this before, is it correct?

A consequence of the California Air Resources Board decision to cap the clean vehicle rebate programme at $60,000 from Dec 3, reported by the
@latimes
, will heavily impact local boy
@tesla
. 40% of Model S/X global H1 2019 deliveries stayed in #California.

Heavy impact? Is that what a 2-3% price impact is called nowadays?
 
I've been following the Unsworth vs. Musk saga on and off:

And that lawsuit appears to be a cluster-sugar for Unsworth, in a really bad way.

Discovery must have really gone against Unsworth, and they filed to exclude a dozen pieces of evidence Elon's team found against Unsworth from being seen by jurors:

NOTICE OF MOTION AND MOTION IN LIMINE to Exclude Evidence filed by Plaintiff Vernon Unsworth. Motion set for hearing on 11/25/2019 at 03:00 PM before Judge Stephen V. Wilson.(Wade, Nicole) (Entered: 11/04/2019)​

Which motion was opposed by Elon's team:


The evidence they were trying to get the jury not to see is a laundry list that paints Unsworth in a very unflattering fashion:
  • "Mr. Unsworth, however, does not want to live by these rules. For example, he seeks to keep the jury from knowing that: (a) both Mr. Unsworth and his expert have admitted that they have no evidence that his reputation has been harmed, e.g., that no one believes that Mr. Unsworth is a pedophile or child rapist (No. 4);
  • (b) Mr. Unsworth has been on a campaign, starting when the rescue was still underway, to claim fame and fortune for himself, while diminishing the role and recognition accorded everyone else involved, and that his damage-less lawsuit is a mere manifestation of that campaign (Nos. 2 and 7); and
  • (c) he already had a negative business reputation due to a government determination that his company had engaged in unlawful business practices. (No. 5.) This evidence is relevant and admissible. Similarly, the jury will have to decide whether it was “reasonably foreseeable”that BuzzFeed would republish Mr. Musk’s “off-the-record” email.
  • Mr. Unsworth seeks to exclude evidence and testimony regarding his partner, Tik, who gave an interview to the Thai news outlet, Big Kren, that reported: “When asked about Elon Musk’s accusation that her husband was a pedophile, Tik said that her husband found that humorous.”"
Elon's lawyers were also hinting at various other bits of evidence, like that he abandoned his family in the UK when he moved to Thailand, and that Unsworth's partner allegedly wrote about "night work" that requires "fortitude":
  • Mr. Unsworth seeks to preclude Mr. Musk from offering evidence that Mr. Unsworth abandoned his wife and daughter when he moved to Thailand, and that his daughter refuses to communicate with him as a result.
  • Mr. Unsworth also seeks to preclude evidence and testimony regarding a post Tik made on the Jobpub.com discussion board regarding night work, in which a web user with Tik’s email address(to which Tik testified that only she has access) made the following post: “There are lots of types of night work. I work at night. The money’s good, too. But you need a bit of fortitude. You can contact me.
Is "night work" for women that requires "a bit of fortitude" the obvious euphemism in Thailand too that it is elsewhere?

Elon's team is also hinting at other types of evidence against Unsworth:
  • "Mr. Musk has no intention of presenting evidence at trial regarding Mr. Unsworth’s or any witnesses’ pornography tendencies, adult or otherwise. However, in Mr. Unsworth’s lawsuit regarding accusations of pedophilia, the truth or falsity of that allegation is relevant. If Mr. Unsworth opens the door to pornography in his case-in-chief, Mr. Musk cannot be foreclosed from exploring it, with the Court’s approval at trial."
That motion also includes interesting new tidbits about how Buzzfeed violated their own rules of journalistic ethics by publishing Elon's off-the-record email, and then after Elon pointed out that they violated their own rules they modified their rules to make it appear as if publishing off-the-record emails was fine ... It also mentions evidence that Unsworth's lawyer was in contact with Buzzfeed and Elon's off-the-record email was published at her request (!).

Plus it looks like Elon might have succeeded in securing testimony from the real cave diving team, against Unsworth:
  • "Mr. Unsworth asks the Court to exclude two witnesses on Mr. Musk’s trial witness list, Ben Reymenants and Ray Lightfoot (aka Raymond Huber), on the grounds that they were not disclosed as potential witnesses until Mr. Musk served his trial witness list on November 1. The Court should deny this request."
I presume these two gentlemen would be willing to go on the record as in what light the cave rescue team viewed Mr. Unsworth?

I.e. Unsworth doesn't look like a hero at all, and was absolutely fishing for a payday. His stunt on CNN might have been part of a payday campaign to begin with.

Instead of defending their motion, Unsworth withdrew it:
  • Notice of Withdrawal of Motion to Compel, 84, Motion to Compel, 86 filed by Plaintiff Vernon Unsworth. (Wood, L) (Entered: 11/11/2019)
Which is basically unilateral capitulation.

Unsworth's lawyers also withdrew their 'expert witness', after Elon's team objected:
  • NOTICE OF WITHDRAWAL OF ERIC ROSE AS AN EXPERT WITNESS re MOTION IN LIMINE (#4) to Exclude the Expert Opinion of Eric W. Rose 100 filed by Plaintiff Vernon Unsworth. (Wade, Nicole) (Entered: 11/13/2019)
The objection by Elon's team is a SMH read:

In Limine - Exclude – #100 in Vernon Unsworth v. Elon Musk (C.D. Cal., 2:18-cv-08048) – CourtListener.com

"As explained below, Mr. Rose has not used any recognized methodology or facts to opine that Mr. Unsworth needs his “reputation recovery” plan, that its $30 million price tag is justified, or that a jury can even consider this evidence. He plans to offer other improper, speculative, and unsupported opinions based on untestable “subjective” judgments, his instincts, and a review of the record in which he considered no depositions and no document the parties produced. For example, despite his having put on blinders, and possessing no education or experience in psychology or psychiatry (or a college degree in any field), Mr. Rose wants to testify as to what Mr. Musk was thinking when he took certain actions and to usurp the jury’s role by opining that it was “reasonably foreseeable” for BuzzFeed to republish Mr. Musk’s August 30, 2018 emails to its reporter, Ryan Mac."​

Eric Rose was the "designated expert" in Unsworth's lawsuit, he was the one who offered expert testimony as to the damages Unsworth suffered, and would also testify as to the meaning and effect of Elon's tweets. Elon's expert will now be heard by the jury, unopposed by Unsworth's expert.

In light of these facts I wouldn't be surprised if Unsworth already approached Elon's team, trying to explore a settlement - and Elon refused.

While the trial is certainly going to be a spectacle, and the usual suspects will be spinning it against Elon - I think Elon has pretty good chances at this point.

Previously I thought Unsworth should probably win a monetary settlement in addition to the apology from Elon - now I'm more of the opinion that the jury should see all that evidence and decide whether Unsworth deserves a single dollar.
 
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The pricing/specs are somewhat competitive with Teslas, but is that going to cut it?

Assuming the same price/spec, what will a consumer want, a Ford or a Tesla?

I think Ford needs to significantly undercut the price of the comparable Tesla model to be truly competitive.

I’m going to go out on a limb here and say most people that drive fords will probably choose a ford EV if prices are similar. Brand loyalty is a powerful thing.

And thats ok. Eventually every car sold will be an EV, and the battery costs will fall enough that most car manufacturers will have cars of a price range & mileage range that is within the same ballpark, even if at a noticeable disadvantage to Tesla specs.

Tesla is never going to be able to serve the entire global demand for autos, but it definitely can serve a decent fraction of it with high margin vehicles with the best performance and value for money, and with the best autonomy options.

If Tesla “only” ends up with ~5% of the vehicle market because most of the existing big auto companies successfully transitions to EVs, then Tesla will both have succeeded in It’s core mission AND be generating ginormous profits leading to a massive market cap (even with “only” a few million cars shipped annually.)

(At this stage, Tesla ‘only’ shipping a few million cars a year is my pessimistic scenario, which would still eventuate in significant share price appreciation)

=====

One aspect to the ford announcement is that it should accelerate their unit volume so that it reaches 200k EV cap quicker, which is good news for,Tesla. The moment all the major US car makers are no longer receiving $7.5k per EV, but every foreign carmaker selling in the USA still does, the odds of the EV tax credit rules changing in favour of US manufactures is close to 100% certain.
 
MachE-9.png


A worthy competitor to Tesla and no doubt we will be seeing Ford market this in TV commercials and even Nascar races(Ford races the Mustang name plate). Good for the consumer.

Lots of questions, like what will the Dealer training be like? Whats the production goal?
Oh look, it has a nose cone, with an extra chin.
 
One aspect to the ford announcement is that it should accelerate their unit volume so that it reaches 200k EV cap quicker, which is good news for,Tesla. The moment all the major US car makers are no longer receiving $7.5k per EV, but every foreign carmaker selling in the USA still does, the odds of the EV tax credit rules changing in favour of US manufactures is close to 100% certain.

Nissan LEAF has sold 138,653 units so far in the USA.

Nissan might beat Ford to 200k PEV USA sales.